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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

GaWx said:
I don’t know if it is just a wobble or not, but I have to be honest and say that I like seeing what almost looks like a little NE drift over the last 30 minutes or so. It may not be more than a wobble, but the longer he sits here without an appreciable westerly component of motion, the better I feel for the Melbourne to Gainesville to Charleston corridor. That’s not saying all clear by any means. But I certainly like what I’ve seen over the last 12 hours trackwise as far as how that affects the chances of a major impact in that corridor. I can’t overemphasize the importance that Dorian is further east than just about all earlier guidance for the current time. The consensus had him at least at the longitude of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.
Regardless, keep a watchful eye for any surprise decided moves to the NW through tomorrow.
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I thought maybe I was going crazy but it certainly seems that way
 
GaWx said:
I don’t know if it is just a wobble or not, but I have to be honest and say that I like seeing what almost looks like a little NE drift over the last 30 minutes or so. It may not be more than a wobble, but the longer he sits here without an appreciable westerly component of motion, the better I feel for the Melbourne to Gainesville to Charleston corridor. That’s not saying all clear by any means. But I certainly like what I’ve seen over the last 12 hours trackwise as far as how that affects the chances of a major impact in that corridor. I can’t overemphasize the importance that Dorian is further east than just about all earlier guidance for the current time. The consensus had him at least at the longitude of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.
Regardless, keep a watchful eye for any surprise decided moves to the NW through tomorrow.
Click to expand...

The lack of west movement hopefully is a good sign. I wonder if the NE movement is due to the thunderstorms off the NC/SC coast. All good news.

E4A6C699-01FA-484E-9FD9-5D26E8B6E99E.jpeg
 
GaWx said:
I don’t know if it is just a wobble or not, but I have to be honest and say that I like seeing what almost looks like a little NE drift over the last 30 minutes or so. It may not be more than a wobble, but the longer he sits here without an appreciable westerly component of motion, the better I feel for the Melbourne to Gainesville to Charleston corridor. That’s not saying all clear by any means. But I certainly like what I’ve seen over the last 12 hours trackwise as far as how that affects the chances of a major impact in that corridor. I can’t overemphasize the importance that Dorian is further east than just about all earlier guidance for the current time. The consensus had him at least at the longitude of the western tip of Grand Bahama Island.
Regardless, keep a watchful eye for any surprise decided moves to the NW through tomorrow.
Click to expand...

They are fun to watch when they drift around like this....they go a a few miles one way then the other especially with the eyewall being uneven etc. He does seem to be moving overall northerly though its so slow its almost moot.... but overall he should be moving N to NW.... I also would take the model tracks after 48 hrs skeptically, the models could easily be off 50-75 miles one way or the other....I think the bigger thing to look for is how slow or fast Dorian moves over the next 24 or so hrs....ahead of schedule would be bad further up the coast I think. Slower should mean further east once he gets farther north, faster means he beats the ridge breaking down to SC/NC....
 
gawxnative said:
Timing is everything.. if he stays "lingering" another 24 hours or so, then all bets are off as far is staying OTS through N Fl, GA and SC, as the second trough may be ahead of it, IMO
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5:00 pm discussion says this:

"A slow westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only
slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island. By Tuesday afternoon,
Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a
weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge."

Does this align with your thoughts?
 
Henry2326 said:
5:00 pm discussion says this:

"A slow westward to west-northwestward motion should resume overnight and continue into early Tuesday, with the eye and devastating winds only
slowly pulling away from Grand Bahama Island. By Tuesday afternoon,
Dorian should begin its much anticipated northwestward turn as a
weakness becomes more pronounced in the subtropical ridge."

Does this align with your thoughts?
Click to expand...
Well what I saw in local weather here (Brad Nitz WSB TV) was him discussing that the "second" trough currently near Montana would be the one to definitively pick up Dorian and keep it off the GA/SC/NC Coasts, and that if Dorian did not start the NNW Movment in some 24 hours it would make a large difference in keeping it OTS,.. It was first I had heard that (second trough) stated anywhere
 
Well and since we are now virtually in a "nowcasting" mode.. I ve noted on GR3 out of KFFC that the sparce cells even as far inland as NE Alabama are moving straight NE to SW... partly a question.. anything to get from this or is it not related to interaction between Ridge and Dorian at all...
 
Oh btw, for a little lightheartedness, check this frame out!

1567462595018.png

you guessed it! that's snow from Dorian as depicted up there!

On a more serious note, this will be a problem for Atlantic Canada in about 5-6 days if there's not a major shift east. Would be fitting if the final licks from this storm included a snow storm.
 
Those are amazing videos bahama press. That one with people in attic and waves breaking under neath the eaves is something else.
 
Poor Freetown, Bahamas! They've been having the eye wobbling all over them since last night. The silver lining, I guess, is that Dorian stalling there over those islands has helped to pull down his intensity from a Cat 5.
 
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