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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

IMO I don’t think Dorian will not have as sharp a North turn. As it starts to stall the erosion of cooler water may and is weakening the storm over the top as Levi mentioned. Global models and several mesoscale models probably aren’t picking this up considerably. Still not saying It will have a landfall into Florida, However, there is still some considerable evidence that the storm won't be as sharply north compared to other models.
 
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I think the eye briefly hits someone in Carolinas. Between myrtle beach and hatteres seems like the most likely spot for a brief landfall


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Ollie Williams said:
IMO I don’t think Dorian will not have as sharp a NW turn. As it starts to stall the erosion of cooler water may and is weakening the storm over the top as Levi mentioned. Global models and several mesoscale models probably aren’t picking this up consideration.
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Yeah, although I’m genuinely encouraged from a risk to FL/GA standpoint that he hasn’t made it as far west as western Grand Bahama Island yet, we still do have to make sure that significant enough weakening to bring the mean steering level down enough to impart a more westerly to NW track into FL rather than NNW doesn’t occur. The good news is that the HWRF has come quite a bit further east.
 
The track is still way to close for comfort. Looks like it is a major right along the Florida coast, and the NHC has it as a hurricane over the OBX now. Dorian is still moving west, and I think any small deviation or error with the models could still mean Dorian makes landfall somewhere as a major hurricane, and could make landfall somewhere else in Florida to NC.
 
It looks like to me that he’s drifting ever so slowly to the NW now. But that’s only a drift. And if that’s true, I still say that’s better from a FL/GA risk standpoint than drifting west toward the western end of Grand Bahama.
 
Warning NC focused post if these bother you skip it....apparently some folks dont like us NC folks focusing on a hurricane that might hit us. Cross posted on AMWX so some of you may have already seen it.


For folks west of I-95 this needs to at least come in at ILM I would think moving NNE or at least NE....all the models have a wind max on the west side under the heavy rain shield so usually on these tracks there is a inland area that see's a wind max that is usually more violent downdraft type winds, so the sustained winds might only be 20--25 but you get the big rolling gust well into the 50-70 range....

The GFS has up to 75knt winds at 925 MB which wont be that high up over a lot of central and eastern NC so gust to 50-70 at the surface is reasonable even as far inland as the Triangle on the GFS track...the GFS is also the weakest with the storm pressure wise.

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accu35 said:
My wife's home town is Savannah Georgia, I hope they aren't to bad affected with this storm. Such a beautiful place
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My niece lives in Savannah, going to probably get at least moderate TS conditions there...most models keep the winds there under hurricane force gust though, I imagine surge will be a issue though.
 
Downeastnc said:
Warning NC focused post if these bother you skip it....apparently some folks dont like us NC folks focusing on a hurricane that might hit us. Cross posted on AMWX so some of you may have already seen it.


For folks west of I-95 this needs to at least come in at ILM I would think moving NNE or at least NE....all the models have a wind max on the west side under the heavy rain shield so usually on these tracks there is a inland area that see's a wind max that is usually more violent downdraft type winds, so the sustained winds might only be 20--25 but you get the big rolling gust well into the 50-70 range....

The GFS has up to 75knt winds at 925 MB which wont be that high up over a lot of central and eastern NC so gust to 50-70 at the surface is reasonable even as far inland as the Triangle on the GFS track...the GFS is also the weakest with the storm pressure wise.

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Hard to tell with the NHC track where it could make landfall in NC, but it looks like they have it hitting the OBX at least. Do the models have it hitting other places in NC?
 
Icon 12z.....slightly slower. Moved closer to land through SC/NC. Very close to landfall at the SC/NC line with definite landfall in NC.
 
GFS is adamant with modeling Dorian moving NW starting at 12z this morning and it still drifting ever so slightly due west.

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Although GFS has east shift, traded it for decreasing pressure as it moves north.
Running faster than both Euro and NHC...
 
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Sleet City USA said:
Considerable NE jump on the GFS
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Ridge is weaker. But from my post above I don't think its correct. Dorian has already tracked SW of where GFS is modeling it.

I think UK/Euro blend is way to go...Euro has struggled but it's the Euro.

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Henry2326 said:
Icon 12z.....slightly slower. Moved closer to land through SC/NC. Very close to landfall at the SC/NC line with definite landfall in NC.
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Downeastnc said:
ICON has hurricane conditions pretty up the FL/GA/SC coast to ILM then inland over eastern NC.....
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I don't think the NC coast avoids landfall. It is looking more and more likely Dorian will hit somewhere in NC.
 
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