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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

Is it just a coincidence that Dorian slammed on the breaks just in time to miss FL or does the landmass cause hurricanes to want to change directions ?
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Is it just a coincidence that Dorian slammed on the breaks just in time to miss FL or does the landmass cause hurricanes to want to change directions ?
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Florida had nothing to do with it, the storm ran out of ridge.....if it had not ran out of ridge then Florida would not have even slowed it down...well maybe a little.
 
Models seem to want to have a little bit more west in their movement through the first 60 hours. The idea of getting the eyewall very close to shore or possibly on shore near Canaveral even up to Jax doesn't seem unreasonable. Moving up the coast places like Kiawah Island, IoP in SC, Oak Island, BHI, Carolina/Kure/Atlantic beaches, Morehead City and Emerald Isle in NC may have to deal with a direct pass by the western eyewall (or what's left)

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SD said:
Models seem to want to have a little bit more west in their movement through the first 60 hours. The idea of getting the eyewall very close to shore or possibly on shore near Canaveral even up to Jax doesn't seem unreasonable. Moving up the coast places like Kiawah Island, IoP in SC, Oak Island, BHI, Carolina/Kure/Atlantic beaches, Morehead City and Emerald Isle in NC may have to deal with a direct pass by the western eyewall (or what's left)

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Looking like as it heads for NC, the storm is gonna try to transition itself, wonder if a sting jet can develop in time although it will probably take a wayyy longer time for that to get going (it’s gonna be gone before one develops)
 
Although it has stalled we still do not know when Dorian will turn north. Stalled Hurricanes, especially Dorian, are very hard to forecast because a few extra hours of motion that was unpredicted can throw the track off severely.
 
Cadi40 said:
Although it has stalled we still do not know when Dorian will turn north. Stalled Hurricanes, especially Dorian, are very hard to forecast because a few extra hours of motion that was unpredicted can throw the track off severely.
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As well, lets define stalled....
Its still bouncing around, preferably in a small general area, but definitely not in one single spot for 12 to 24 hours. This is a scary fluid situation.
 
Henry2326 said:
As well, lets define stalled....
Its still bouncing around, preferably in a small general area, but definitely not in one single spot for 12 to 24 hours. This is a scary fluid situation.
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I wouldn’t necessarily say fluid, it’s not moving much as of now, but you can never really fully predict when it will begin to pick up speed.
 
Notice that at least several of the most recent Euro runs have him get to almost the western tip of Grand Bahama Island before the NNW turn. That’s about 35 miles west of where he is now. I want to see if he resumes westward motion to go close to those 35 miles west. If he instead is about as far west as he’s going to get on that island, then his actual track will clearly be east of these Euro runs in that area, which should have good implications for FL and GA at the least and probably also for lower SC. Nowcasting is more important than ever at this critical part of the track!
 
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