blueheronNC
Member
GFS wide right
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
thats great news!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Poor GFS
Henry2326
Member
Looks like 65 miles = NC landfall....
blueheronNC
Member
Still somehow brings it to landfall at Morehead City, NC
The bigger east shift initially closed up a bit as it approached NC, still east of 6z but not by enough to drastically change the effects
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Henry2326
Member
No comfort here....when I see HRWF making significant east move, maybe then....
Downeastnc
Member
I wont say that yet, however it wont miss by enough to prevent the south beaches and the OBX from getting at least strong TS conditions and its very likely they get Cat 1/2 hurricane conditions....for inland folks its a bit messy, unless the models shift 50-75 miles further east than what they average right now on most global's most of the IBX also stand a good shot at hurricane conditions. For me much less you Triangle guys its gotta at least track right on the coast if not inland some to get good winds....
Its also going to have a lot to do with the structure of the storm, is it weakening or strengthening, how big is the wind field, how tight is the gradient packed on the NW side etc.....all that is just to hard to nail down yet....
Henry2326
Member
TWC publishing that Grand Bahama Airport under 5 feet of water.....
Also reporting that its moving WNW at 1 mph.
Also reporting that its moving WNW at 1 mph.
Don’t know how reliable it is but JMA way far west vs previous run
JaxHurricane12
Member
When does the 12z run start for HWRF?
Rgem bumped east as well. So far not a bad start keeping the worst of the conditions just off of the Fl coast
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Downeastnc
Member
If the Ukie has this right its a bad hit that angle will bad for surge on the Pamlico, good thing its moving goes from ILM to Rodanthe in 12 hrs....also 942 is awful low...
That's because the 500 MB heights block the Low to the north. Probably not going to happen but not a huge stretch. Would be a worst-case scenario for NC
blueheronNC
Member
That slight shift away from 06z to 12z GFS results in total rainfall cut from 3.7 inches to 1.7 inches at RDU. Every mile is going to matter for this western edge.
That's the 0z run but from what I can tell the 12z looked to be hair west. The maps I have our very crude, need to wait until 12:45pm for better maps.
This look reminds me of michael 
just tad bit anyways, little bit of low level drying, strong northernly low level jet which could easily mix down to the surface, bit of a Scorpions tail with it
just tad bit anyways, little bit of low level drying, strong northernly low level jet which could easily mix down to the surface, bit of a Scorpions tail with it
Henry2326
Member
12z CMC east movement, looks just slightly short of GFS.
I don't think it will be that bad. If the current strong model consensus pretty much verifies, it should be a much less harsh hit than Matthew was in 2016, which gave SAV cat 1 hurricane force winds. It might be like TS Hermine of 2016 or the similarly well offshore Floyd of 1999. I expect moderate TS conditions as of now in and around the city, which is 15 miles inland.
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The JMA is downright awful. I'd heavily discount this.
It looks like to me that the main 12Z model consensus has shifted eastward, which is good news. I think that's because of his not making it far west at Grand Bahama Island as he was supposed to by now. Hopefully this trend will continue. I'm breathing even a bit easier for FL/GA for a major hit (though not the all clear yet and they'll still get at least TS force winds) and I'm starting to feel a bit better even up to CHS. Keep the positive vibes!
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