pcbjr
Member
Regardless, I do not like it Sam I said, I do not like its green eggs and ham ...
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Tropical Hurricane Dorian
- Thread starter Metwannabe
- Start date
Henry2326
Member
NAM....west and faster.....
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
That does sound like a problem. I was going to ask when does it have to start to turn north to safely miss land?
Nam has a similar digging Jet to the 18z. Would force to the storm inland if this were to verify.
so looking at what met posted, we have like 6-12 hours and it better start gaining lat quickly to follow all of those model plots. To be honest haven't seen any hint of slowing down right now either (to be fair the models didn't quite yet either). Most models have this starting now, on that map, at a WNW path......so we shall see.
Cadi40
Member
Stormsfury
Member
IBMs experimental model that uses their Watson Supercomputer
ForsythSnow
Moderator
They must be Really debating on what to set the intensity at. Nothing yet.
Not a Cat 5 yet.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
They're insane. 150 still.
Cadi40
Member
Whether they like it or not it’s obviously a category 5. However at this point it doesn’t matter, the Bahama’s are going to be obliterated anyways.
new updated *as of 8pm Eastern** steering
This obviously isn’t a cat 4 nomore yet they keep it that way, wth
The latest HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of
central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to
the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted
west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to
that forecast was made.
central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to
the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted
west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to
that forecast was made.
pcbjr
Member
Chris,
Hate to say it but we're reading the same novel, and I think we're both in the same chapter.
Phil
This does look scary since it shows the steering current to the west would need to collapse in a timely manner to recurve in time. However, it looks like to me that even the Euro just had it crossing 75W this evening moving just N of W and, therefore, he is matching up well with the Euro. Am I about the only not overly concerned at this point about any significant westward track correction? What am I missing? I’m not saying the track could end up going more west and threatening FL, but I still don’t see anything definitive as of yet to tell me that’s likely to occur.
So lets do this...this is from the brand new update *11pm* this is forecasted point they expect Dorian to be at sunday am at 8am...
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
South AL Wx
Member
NHC:
Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an
initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.
Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an
initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.
pcbjr
Member
Nothing ... question is, what is missing ...