Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Henry2326]

11 discussion:

Although there is general
agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable
spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of
Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States. The latest
HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of
central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to
the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted
west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to
that forecast was made.

Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility.

Since the updated track was
slightly slower than the previous advisory, no additional watches
are needed for Florida at this time.

 

[dsaur]

Hey, Larry. Does your abacus say where the 1935 storm went after the Keys?

 

[Henry2326]

Nothing ... question is, what is missing ...

They are worried too....

Discussion-
"Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility. "

 

[Arcc]

Not a Cat 5 yet.

Not saying its right or wrong, but they must not be upgrading because of surface pressure being so high. I dont understand if winds support it, but its the only reason I can give.

 

[GaWx]

Hey, Larry. Does your abacus say where the 1935 storm went after the Keys?

It curled around into the E Gulf and then I think it made landfall in the NE agulf moving NE.

 

[pcbjr]

Hey, Larry. Does your abacus say where the 1935 storm went after the Keys?

 

[deltadog03]

This does look scary since it shows the steering current to the west would need to collapse in a timely manner to recurve in time. However, it looks like to me that even the Euro just had it crossing 75W this evening moving just N of W and, therefore, he is matching up well with the Euro. Am I about the only not overly concerned at this point about any significant westward track correction? What am I missing? I’m not saying the track could end up going more west and threatening FL, but I still don’t see anything definitive as of yet to tell me that’s likely to occur.

your not missing anything Larry....I know the ridge has been shown to be a bit stronger than model forecast in the short term. can someone post the 18z euro circle map please.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Well, looks like the NHC doesn't have Dorian really going north until Monday after it clears the Bahamas. There is some WNW movement before then, but it doesn't really take off north until Monday on their track. Long way to go still. If it doesn't take a big jog north by Monday night, then landfall might become more of a possibility.

 

[dsaur]

View attachment 22678

Thanks Larry and Phil! And that right there is why I cleaned out the gutters and won't wash the car several times. Those fish hook storms have a habit of finding Ga.

 

[Brent]

Not saying its right or wrong, but they must not be upgrading because of surface pressure being so high. I dont understand if winds support it, but its the only reason I can give.

that was my first thought but it shouldn't matter, since pressure isn't wind *shrugs*

This is who wrote the advisory on Twitter

 

[deltadog03]

ok, in the interested of doing HW and being fair on all sides of the views on where this might go....looking at the 18z EPS member map, it appears that the EPS from the 18z run turns Dorian NNW around 78W and 27N we shall see for sure...

 

[Brick Tamland]

ok, in the interested of doing HW and being fair on all sides of the views on where this might go....looking at the 18z EPS member map, it appears that the EPS from the 18z run turns Dorian NNW around 78W and 27N we shall see for sure...

View attachment 22679

And not supposed to happen for a couple more days. Long waiting game.

 

[stormcentral]

Icon landfall or offshore cant tell? 00z

 

[Ollie Williams]

00z Icon make landfall @76 hrs in north central Florida. Currently riding up the coast.



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[stormcentral]

BREAKING; 00Z icon FL landfall

 

[stormcentral]

What a forecaster nightmare praying for the bahamas florida and carolinas!!

 

[NoSnowATL]

00z Icon make landfall @68 hrs in south Florida. Currently riding up the coast thru 117.

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Looks like that IBM model track.


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[Snowfan]

00z Icon make landfall @68 hrs in south Florida. Currently riding up the coast thru 117.

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That's the 18z.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Until the EURO op comes very far west into central Florida I’m largely tossing some of these far western outliers.

 

[Ollie Williams]

That's the 18z.

My bad, fixed it.