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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

11 discussion:

Although there is general
agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable
spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of
Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States. The latest
HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of
central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to
the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted
west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to
that forecast was made.

Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility.

Since the updated track was
slightly slower than the previous advisory, no additional watches
are needed for Florida at this time.
 
This does look scary since it shows the steering current to the west would need to collapse in a timely manner to recurve in time. However, it looks like to me that even the Euro just had it crossing 75W this evening moving just N of W and, therefore, he is matching up well with the Euro. Am I about the only not overly concerned at this point about any significant westward track correction? What am I missing? I’m not saying the track could end up going more west and threatening FL, but I still don’t see anything definitive as of yet to tell me that’s likely to occur.
your not missing anything Larry....I know the ridge has been shown to be a bit stronger than model forecast in the short term. can someone post the 18z euro circle map please.
 
Well, looks like the NHC doesn't have Dorian really going north until Monday after it clears the Bahamas. There is some WNW movement before then, but it doesn't really take off north until Monday on their track. Long way to go still. If it doesn't take a big jog north by Monday night, then landfall might become more of a possibility.
 
Not saying its right or wrong, but they must not be upgrading because of surface pressure being so high. I dont understand if winds support it, but its the only reason I can give.

that was my first thought but it shouldn't matter, since pressure isn't wind *shrugs*

This is who wrote the advisory on Twitter

received_477708129746913.png
 
ok, in the interested of doing HW and being fair on all sides of the views on where this might go....looking at the 18z EPS member map, it appears that the EPS from the 18z run turns Dorian NNW around 78W and 27N we shall see for sure...

eps 18z sat.jpg
 
00z Icon make landfall @68 hrs in south Florida. Currently riding up the coast thru 117.
9fcad8005edab746050ed4c4af18a354.jpg



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Looks like that IBM model track.


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