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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

so looking at what met posted, we have like 6-12 hours and it better start gaining lat quickly to follow all of those model plots. To be honest haven't seen any hint of slowing down right now either (to be fair the models didn't quite yet either). Most models have this starting now, on that map, at a WNW path......so we shall see.
 
In no way comparing the storms, but the NAM has a strikingly similar track to the initial models for hurricane Irma.
 

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SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Click to expand...
Not a Cat 5 yet.
 
025345_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
 
The latest HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of
central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to
the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted
west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to
that forecast was made.
 
deltadog03 said:
new updated *as of 8pm Eastern** steering

View attachment 22677View attachment 22677
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This does look scary since it shows the steering current to the west would need to collapse in a timely manner to recurve in time. However, it looks like to me that even the Euro just had it crossing 75W this evening moving just N of W and, therefore, he is matching up well with the Euro. Am I about the only not overly concerned at this point about any significant westward track correction? What am I missing? I’m not saying the track could end up going more west and threatening FL, but I still don’t see anything definitive as of yet to tell me that’s likely to occur.
 
NHC:

Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an
initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.
 
GaWx said:
Am I the only one


This does look scary since it shows the steering current to the west would need to collapse in a timely manner to recurve in time. However, it looks like to me that even the Euro just had it crossing 75W this evening moving just N of W and, therefore, he is matching up well with the Euro. Am I about the only not overly concerned at this point about any significant westward track correction? What am I missing?
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Nothing ... question is, what is missing ...
 
11 discussion:

Although there is general
agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable
spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of
Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States. The latest
HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of
central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to
the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted
west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to
that forecast was made.

Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility.

Since the updated track was
slightly slower than the previous advisory, no additional watches
are needed for Florida at this time.
 
GaWx said:
This does look scary since it shows the steering current to the west would need to collapse in a timely manner to recurve in time. However, it looks like to me that even the Euro just had it crossing 75W this evening moving just N of W and, therefore, he is matching up well with the Euro. Am I about the only not overly concerned at this point about any significant westward track correction? What am I missing? I’m not saying the track could end up going more west and threatening FL, but I still don’t see anything definitive as of yet to tell me that’s likely to occur.
Click to expand...
your not missing anything Larry....I know the ridge has been shown to be a bit stronger than model forecast in the short term. can someone post the 18z euro circle map please.
 
Well, looks like the NHC doesn't have Dorian really going north until Monday after it clears the Bahamas. There is some WNW movement before then, but it doesn't really take off north until Monday on their track. Long way to go still. If it doesn't take a big jog north by Monday night, then landfall might become more of a possibility.
 
Arcc said:
Not saying its right or wrong, but they must not be upgrading because of surface pressure being so high. I dont understand if winds support it, but its the only reason I can give.
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that was my first thought but it shouldn't matter, since pressure isn't wind *shrugs*

This is who wrote the advisory on Twitter

received_477708129746913.png
 
ok, in the interested of doing HW and being fair on all sides of the views on where this might go....looking at the 18z EPS member map, it appears that the EPS from the 18z run turns Dorian NNW around 78W and 27N we shall see for sure...

eps 18z sat.jpg
 
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