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Tropical Hurricane Dorian

I respect everyone here (well most) but I don’t believe or agree with any westward surprises or believe surprises are in store within 24 hours. It’s nonsense to me and I actually think a little wish casting. The breaks will turn on soon and north it shall blow. I believe there is a strong model consensus and small deviations will never bring this thing on land Florida. Not to step on anyone’s toes but it was an entirely different situation during the early formations of the storm when the center relocated in a much weaker storm.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m upset, the amount of damage those island’s is about to experience.... it has time to strengthen further to, Is 200mph winds to high or could it actually reach that ?
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Anything is possible, I remember Katrina peaked at 175mph in the GOM before northerly shear knocked her down some and I think Maria peaked at 175mph too iirc.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I respect everyone here (well most) but I don’t believe or agree with any westward surprises or believe surprises are in store within 24 hours. It’s nonsense to me and I actually think a little wish casting. The breaks will turn on soon and north it shall blow. I believe there is a strong model consensus and small deviations will never bring this thing on land Florida. Not to step on anyone’s toes but it was an entirely different situation during the early formations of the storm when the center relocated in a much weaker storm.
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Have you had a look at Levi's tweets and videos? He does a good job explaining that one small change and the path can be altered by 50 to 200 miles even ultimately.
 
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KyloG said:
What’s nuts is the Euro doesn’t have Dorian move NW of Grand Bahama until Tuesday afternoon.
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I'm starting to become skeptical of the Euro. I can't remember everything, but I feel like it's slowly lost touch with being king in the TC category over the years. People gave it a lot of praise for Sandy I think because it took it inland and the GFS went OTS, and that made people go with the "But it was right for THIS storm" idea. It's a bad way to think I believe. We have to look at a lot of storms and a lot of runs and recent fails/ successes to get an idea of if it's reasonable to call one model biased. There is also the chance we have a totally new model that gets the spotlight for being right. Will that be right in the future for every storm? Maybe, maybe not.
 
metwannabe said:
Every model offshore but I there's an issue imo, every model has this making that NW turn just prior to 75W..... it's crossed 75 still moving west.

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At this point in the game when Mesoscale models are in range, It’s better to now cast and analyze trends and forecast that way. Globals are important LR due to the uncertainty of a lot of factors. Globals tend to do a lot of things wrong in SR. Take a look at the Euro during Florence for example. We need high detail to get these tiny little factors that will make a world a difference that Globals don’t show.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm starting to become skeptical of the Euro. I can't remember everything, but I feel like it's slowly lost touch with being king in the TC category over the years. People gave it a lot of praise for Sandy I think because it took it inland and the GFS went OTS, and that made people go with the "But it was right for THIS storm" idea. It's a bad way to think I believe. We have to look at a lot of storms and a lot of runs and recent fails/ successes to get an idea of if it's reasonable to call one model biased. There is also the chance we have a totally new model that gets the spotlight for being right. Will that be right in the future for every storm? Maybe, maybe not.
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Yeah the EURO wasn’t that great with Florence. When it was trying to go straight south down the SC coast I knew that was bogus.


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ForsythSnow said:
I'm starting to become skeptical of the Euro. I can't remember everything, but I feel like it's slowly lost touch with being king in the TC category over the years. People gave it a lot of praise for Sandy I think because it took it inland and the GFS went OTS, and that made people go with the "But it was right for THIS storm" idea. It's a bad way to think I believe. We have to look at a lot of storms and a lot of runs and recent fails/ successes to get an idea of if it's reasonable to call one model biased. There is also the chance we have a totally new model that gets the spotlight for being right. Will that be right in the future for every storm? Maybe, maybe not.
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Right or wrong, there is no doubt our models are worse, if this does come ashore it just makes them worse than that.
 
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