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Hurricane Debby

Some models (not all) have really struggled with Debby. Not the first storm this season either (see cat5). Kinda reminds me of 2004/2005 when models kinda stunk real bad at times. 🤨 Surprised at how quiet the bands are with Debby over the Atlantic.
 
I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and very likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS.

The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center.
 
My call of less than an inch is looking good so far for the upstate along and north of 85. Starting to really wonder if we get anything more than a few showers from Greenville east and not a drop west of Greenville. Didn't need a model to tell me that a couple days ago. Climo with that track wins 9 out of 10 times.
 
Charleston peninsula is closed today. Cops at every entrance into the city. But a lull pretty much most of the day here. Last night could very well have been the worst of the storm, but still a couple of days of very soggy weather ahead.

Very little traffic. Most people are at home.
Everything is good in Mount Pleasant I'm on my way to the gym
 
I estimate that I’m at 8.5” so far from Debby (over last ~30 hours) with only ~1/2” since 2AM allowing good progress on drainage. If we were to not get too much more from this point forward (where I’m leaning now), I’d be near the low end of the range of predictions, which had a pretty good amount for today and tomorrow. As of last night I had guessed at least another 4” between then and Thursday. Still an 8.5” rain is enough to qualify as a very big rain event due to its rarity and very likely is the largest since Matthew of early Oct of 2016. Also, some nearby areas (Effingham and Jasper counties) got 10-11” per CoCoRaHS.

The storm is currently centered just E of here along the coast about to be offshore. Winds and rain are very light near the storm center.
I saw the staging in Pooler and it was crazy. Huge big black trucks that said hydro solutions (I guess they suck and remove water). Looked military like. May still be there if you ever go to Tanger Outlets. If the GFS is right tho man Savannah could easily teeter on the edge of disaster over the next 48hrs. Metro Diner was the only thing open over at the shopping center. Saw a few homes surrounded in water on Highway 80 and a large lake on the right hand side of i95 south. Glad everything is reopening for dinner, Bella’s is my go to place when I’m in town they open at 5.
 
My call of less than an inch is looking good so far for the upstate along and north of 85. Starting to really wonder if we get anything more than a few showers from Greenville east and not a drop west of Greenville. Didn't need a model to tell me that a couple days ago. Climo with that track wins 9 out of 10 times.
It is going back east for sure and is faster. The ICON from a couple days ago had the right idea. The 2nd landfall may very well be in NC now.
 
It is going back east for sure and is faster. The ICON from a couple days ago had the right idea. The 2nd landfall may very well be in NC now.
It looks to me like things have pretty much zeroed in on a landfall between Georgetown and Myrtle Beach… that’s were the EURO, UKMET, and ICON have been holding steady and is where the guidance plots are clustered up as well. Actually just looking at the 18z ICON, it’s ticked back south a tad to a landfall just south of Georgetown after being the most northern of the three the last couple days.
 
High Risk canceled for Savannah and some of southern South Carolina for today. - WPC
 
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