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Pattern Hotober

GFS havin' a good time. Good to see its still showing these BN temps for next Saturday, obviously taken FWIW since cold bias and so on and so on
gfs_T2m_seus_30.png
 
SouthATLwx said:
And the calamity that is the GFS doesn't disappoint, as the 12z run has almost reverted back to the solution it had a couple days ago.
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40s-50s for lows in my backyard, is a calamity! ?
 
Tarheel1 said:
40s-50s for lows in my backyard, is a calamity! ?
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The roller coaster model solutions is the calamity.

Just yesterday, it was practically on board with the pre-00z EURO's solution. Now it blast the cold front through here on Friday.

EDIT: FFC noted this in their AFD...

"000
FXUS62 KFFC 281140 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
427 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Cannot seem to shake the dominant H5 ridge across the region for
the majority of the fcst period, allowing for the abnormally hot
and dry conditions to continue. Each day looks to have max temps
flirt with or break previous records at some locations (adjusted
slightly above blend given this regime). Only pops in the period
are in some eastern portions of the CWA for Monday afternoon given
some lingering moisture along the eastern side of the ridge, then
the far NE mtns for Tuesday, and near the end of the period in
portions of the north on Friday with a possible approaching front.
This would be a welcomed change to most if the ridge does dampen
by the end of the week and allow any fropa, though guidance could
change in future runs this far out."
 
I wouldn't attribute the warm transition seasons in the SE for the last decade 100% to GW. The pattern as a whole has changed and doesn't favor a mean eastern trough like we saw for so long

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SD said:
I wouldn't attribute the warm transition seasons in the SE for the last decade 100% to GW. The pattern as a whole has changed and doesn't favor a mean eastern trough like we saw for so long

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My theory is that the Hadley cells are expanding putting the south in a tropical summer pattern with the extreme heat shunted more to the north and that delays the cooler fall temps as it takes longer for those cells to contract and move back south.


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SouthATLwx said:
The roller coaster model solutions is the calamity.

Just yesterday, it was practically on board with the pre-00z EURO's solution. Now it blast the cold front through here on Friday.

EDIT: FFC noted this in their AFD...

"000
FXUS62 KFFC 281140 AAA
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
427 AM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Cannot seem to shake the dominant H5 ridge across the region for
the majority of the fcst period, allowing for the abnormally hot
and dry conditions to continue. Each day looks to have max temps
flirt with or break previous records at some locations (adjusted
slightly above blend given this regime). Only pops in the period
are in some eastern portions of the CWA for Monday afternoon given
some lingering moisture along the eastern side of the ridge, then
the far NE mtns for Tuesday, and near the end of the period in
portions of the north on Friday with a possible approaching front.
This would be a welcomed change to most if the ridge does dampen
by the end of the week and allow any fropa, though guidance could
change in future runs this far out."
Click to expand...

The pattern change or at least the end of the heatwave has been in the models for nearly a week. FFC has no interest in D10 forecasts so they will wait it out. No surprise here.


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12z GGEM holds serve.

In fact, while the GFS blasts a cold front through here on Friday, it pops another 594dm ridge over the Carolinas.
 
I feel like this is what we see all the time during our Winters. We’ve been chasing a fantasy cold front that is 8-10 days out for 2-3 weeks now and it just keeps getting pushed back further and further.

Obviously our cooler weather will come eventually, but it sure gets old seeing the same results over and over again past 7 days. Sadly it’s hard for most of us, including me to learn not to trust what these models spit out past day 7.
 
Parker said:
I feel like this is what we see all the time during our Winters. We’ve been chasing a fantasy cold front that is 8-10 days out for 2-3 weeks now and it just keeps getting pushed back further and further.

Obviously our cooler weather will come eventually, but it sure gets old seeing the same results over and over again past 7 days. Sadly it’s hard for most of us, including me to learn not to trust what these models spit out past day 7.
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If it shows warmth it’s a lock.


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SouthATLwx said:
12z GGEM holds serve.

In fact, while the GFS blasts a cold front through here on Friday, it pops another 594dm ridge over the Carolinas.
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Even if it’s right, and I have my doubts, high temps in the mid 80’s is a significant cool down. All of us here will happily take that. Well most of us anyway.


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Parker said:
I feel like this is what we see all the time during our Winters. We’ve been chasing a fantasy cold front that is 8-10 days out for 2-3 weeks now and it just keeps getting pushed back further and further.

Obviously our cooler weather will come eventually, but it sure gets old seeing the same results over and over again past 7 days. Sadly it’s hard for most of us, including me to learn not to trust what these models spit out past day 7.
Click to expand...

We’ve seen that quite often but this time around that’s not entirely true. GFS has been consistent on the CAD for next Saturday.


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ATLwxfan said:
We’ve seen that quite often but this time around that’s not entirely true. GFS has been consistent on the CAD for next Saturday.


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yeah, we're getting pretty close to where we can probably declare that some type of CAD is going to happen next weekend (if it's there Monday we can declare it). The thing is, its not going to help all of us unfortunately. Atlanta northeast and east (to probably about 30-50 miles south of me) and the Carolinas usually get it pretty good. I otherwise see plenty of what I'd declare mid-upper 80s to low 90s then to our west.

Overall what I see makes sense. I think past next week, North Georgia might get rid of the low 90s but it will still be seasonably warm with what we do get with periods of fall like days. It's a stepping down process. I get major vibes of last year and that's how it went.
 
Who actually looks at the GGEM?? I thought it was only used to show fake ice storms and last straws in winter?
 
Anthony Masiello mentioned alot about expanded Hadley Cell last winter and it had a profound effect on winter. He is really good with patterns imo.
 
Nice to see the Euro op run for 12z not only crushing the SE heat ridge but getting ready to pounce in a trough from western Canada at hr 240.
 
Arcc said:
Definitely nice to see the Euro finally crushing the heat dome next weekend. Probably will see short wave ridging pump it here and there but maybe it will be the end of the consistent beast.
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Euro caving to GFS! Where’s all the Euro huggers/ warministas now!???
 
Will Rossman said:
Nice to see the Euro op run for 12z not only crushing the SE heat ridge but getting ready to pounce in a trough from western Canada at hr 240.
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That incoming trough at D10 would be the real deal as it progressed into the US. Not much support from the eps yet but I like the above normal heights west of Greenland toward the pole

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SD said:
That incoming trough at D10 would be the real deal as it progressed into the US. Not much support from the eps yet but I like the above normal heights west of Greenland toward the pole

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HM says we go from summer to winter. Or something like that. I don't understand most of what he says, but I caught that. I do like what I'm seeing at H5 over the higher latitudes.
 
Yeap sudden changes in seasons seems to be the norm these days.


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Looks like we might have a bit of model chaos coming in the day 7+ period a few things going on in the pacific that could easily change the pattern toward warm/cold with subtle changes

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SD said:
Looks like we might have a bit of model chaos coming in the day 7+ period a few things going on in the pacific that could easily change the pattern toward warm/cold with subtle changes

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Good... model chaos in the extended is often a precursor to pattern change.

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GaWx said:
This is insane, record smashing heat for some being shown for 10/4 by the 12Z Euro. Hopefully it is overdoing it:
View attachment 24149
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Probably going to be another day with a long list of record highs and hottest temps so late in the season. If we get any semblance of a westerly flow ahead of the front some places will top 100 which is ridiculous for October

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SD said:
Probably going to be another day with a long list of record highs and hottest temps so late in the season. If we get any semblance of a westerly flow ahead of the front some places will top 100 which is ridiculous for October

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Yep, with soil moisture at zip, temps will scream up. Thankfully the Euro countinues the end in sight look.
 
Arcc said:
Yep, with soil moisture at zip, temps will scream up. Thankfully the Euro countinues the end in sight look.
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Yeah this should be the end of the absurd stuff at least. Wouldn't rule out some warmish days next week ahead of fronts but no signs of stacked ridging

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Why has this summer been so hot? Not a climate change question. But we started with 100s in May and we are dealing with it into October. I’ve never seen so many 100 degree days in one summer.
 
DustinWx said:
Why has this summer been so hot? Not a climate change question. But we started with 100s in May and we are dealing with it into October. I’ve never seen so many 100 degree days in one summer.
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I’m guessing the SER plays a big role, causes dry hot air to sit over the SE for months. Dry ground allows air to heat up faster. No fronts, no hurricanes... that’s my guess.


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We’re staying at the Pisgah Inn mid October..all’s is I’s know is it better not be in the 80’s up there. Give me my cool down. Please
 
NoSnowATL said:
I’m guessing the SER plays a big role, causes dry hot air to sit over the SE for months. Dry ground allows air to heat up faster. No fronts, no hurricanes... that’s my guess.


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I was wanting some clarity on this too. The southeast ridge is the ridge that sits to our southeast right, the one that pumps humidity and warm air in, also known as the Bermuda high?

The ridge we have dealt with in May and September were more based over Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia, is that still considered the SE ridge, which puts us more on the eastern side (dry side)?
 
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