• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Hotober

This is about as warm as it gets pattern wise but then....

14-km EPS Global North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 120.png

we then look to hopefully turn seasonal, maybe slightly AN. But, it will feel so much better. Hopefully we can string together some evenings in the 50's. Come end of Oct Raleigh's avg temps is in the mid/upper 60's and lows in the 40's. So, we get that death ridge again it won't be like now. Hopefully just another week of this misery...until maybe April/May.

14-km EPS Global North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom 312.png
 
As an FYI...the EPS never really gets the SE BN, atleast for any extended period of time. Right at neutral in NC to a few degrees AN for further south.

14-km EPS Global undefined undefined 336.png
 
The end is near! The GFS has spoken, wedgy first, then general cool down by day 10! It’s happening! 8DEDC170-B5E7-4964-A409-979EAFBB9DCC.png02D8A9A4-0A03-4404-8F7C-F8324C796D67.png
 
On 0z GFS, from the 5th - 12th, we don’t hit 80 degrees, many days have lows in the 40s also! ☃️☃️☃️☃️
 
00z GGEM is even uglier than its 12z run.

90s and ridging continue for many areas through Sunday/Monday, with *MAYBE* a return to temps in the 80s by Monday/Tuesday.
 
Last edited:
EPS came in warmer overnight. Guess we shouldn’t be surprised. Lost blocking.

6EDA0A99-2527-43C7-AD2B-52E93C424021.pngFD442D9E-F8B2-43D7-8F14-F0CBCE78FACD.png7A1CF818-F2DE-4AC2-9AD7-4160E408AB5B.png
 
6z has a beautiful CAD next Satuday
gfs_T2m_seus_31.png
 
SD said:
Wow average highs are really falling off right now. We drop 5 degrees in the next 2 weeks

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

When the new normals come in there gonna be around 5 degrees warmer I would estimate.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
Wow average highs are really falling off right now. We drop 5 degrees in the next 2 weeks

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Our saving grace. 5-7F AN will feel pretty good mid/end October.
 
BHS1975 said:
Which is pretty useless in a rapidly changing climate.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It's not changing that rapidly. You can't take a short amount of time and call it rapid. That's why we have 30 year averages, not 5 year ones. It's changing, yes, but not as fast as you think. Also this isn't even the right thread to discuss climate change.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's not changing that rapidly. You can't take a short amount of time and call it rapid. That's why we have 30 year averages, not 5 year ones. It's changing, yes, but not as fast as you think. Also this isn't even the right thread to discuss climate change.
Click to expand...
I still have a hard time believing EVERY September/early October is going to be like this.
 
ForsythSnow said:
It's not changing that rapidly. You can't take a short amount of time and call it rapid. That's why we have 30 year averages, not 5 year ones. It's changing, yes, but not as fast as you think. Also this isn't even the right thread to discuss climate change.
Click to expand...

I’d argue this is rapid and makes 30 year normals irrelevant and global warming is right here right now and not something obscure in the far future that needs to be shoved in a thread that hardly anyone looks at.

2888a231ffc4aae9a29eb3874c6e1ac0.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BHS1975 said:
I’d argue this is rapid and makes 30 year normals irrelevant and global warming is right here right now and not something obscure in the far future that needs to be shoved in a thread that hardly anyone looks at.

2888a231ffc4aae9a29eb3874c6e1ac0.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Well like it or not it and this conversation is going to go there if you continue. Not because of bias, but because this is the October thread, not a place to discuss GW. People don't want to look in there because it gets political.
 
BHS1975 said:
It’s not political it’s reality.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I actually agree to the extent that we are witnessing a changing climate, with extremes in weather becoming more commonplace, and global temperatures as a whole on the rise. However, where this can get political is when we start assigning causes to that changing climate. More specifically, humanity's role in affecting the temps and precip. And if it can somehow be traced significantly to us humans, then governmental measures taken to reduce this "human factor" in the earth's weather systems definitely bring this topic into the heated (pun intended) political realm. If this rapid shift in climate is NOT primarily caused by humanity, then there is basically nothing we can do but adapt to the crazy climate patterns. I would actually argue that if even if it IS being caused by humanity to a significant extent, there is very little that can be done at this point. Of course, I do agree that regardless of who or what is responsible for the recent climate shifts, it is definitely a positive development to seek out cleaner and more renewable energy sources.

These are just my quick thoughts on this topic that I was thinking about recently due to the record hot weather we're experiencing. I really don't want to continue this discussion on the Hotober thread. Back to topic, I hope we get a nice pattern change to the cooler in the next couple weeks.
 
And the calamity that is the GFS doesn't disappoint, as the 12z run has almost reverted back to the solution it had a couple days ago.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top