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Pattern Hotober

The GFS from hour 222 and beyond so far is tolerable even if you want to factor in a cold bias.

Please, please be right. Please.
 
I'd just like some average temps in this horrible pattern lol we're having an average August this month :rolleyes:

clearly we don't get fronts like we used to but come on
 
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LOL...can't help but laugh. First week of October and mid-90's across the board. 7am temps is in the 70's. It was cooler in July.

This is probably wrong, I would imagine the EPS will be much cooler and closer to the GEFS than it's Op run.

9-km ECMWF USA Daily Hi_Lo Southeast US 2-m Daily High T 240.png9-km ECMWF USA Cities Southeast US 2-m Temperature 240.png
 
I would say I don't believe the Euro because based off of time of year, upper 80s to low 90s would simply make more sense then even if the ridge doesn't go away.

But there might be precedence...okay nevermind I looked and even the infamous 2007 where it actually was a horror show in August was the same as what I said.
 
I think the MJO and indices are overblown in my opinion. They are a general roadmap but we always seem to get looks especially in recent years that don’t seem to fit. It’s not staying in the 90’s uninterrupted into mid October no matter what the MJO says.


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I think kylo and a few others would attest that the mjo being in the phases that promote warm weather for this time of year has alot to do with it imo. A transient cold front shouldn't be ruled out. I wouldn't mind it staying warm as long as possible and then maybe lock in a cold pattern through march.
 
EPS obviously consistent with prior runs and GEFS with cooldown day 10+.

Edit: Cool down is a stretch...temps are still slightly AN, but will take it.

2m_temperature_min_SECONUS_hr240.png2m_temperature_min_SECONUS_hr264.png
 
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