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Pattern Hotober

J.C. said:
I can't understand how it could possibly be that warm with that short of daylight hours, truly mindboggling.
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We had 3 days in the row of temps around 90*F back in 2007 in Detroit.

So I'm sure it's not all that difficult at this latitude, especially with severe drought conditions.
 
I forgot whether I posted it or not but the AAM being in a overly negative state only helps out the SER at this time of the year, that combined with Nina-ish conditions and MJO in phases supportive of warmth ain’t helping either, -PNA is helping to pump the Southeast ridge in a way to which it just further increases heights and strength of the ridge, I still think the GFS is onto something.... Becuase I’m bout damn tired of this heat
 
The euro is as much as 15 degrees hotter than the eps mean in many locations at d10 and it's hotter than the hottest eps member. The euro has been way too warm and ridgy in the d7-10 period all summer. Either the model is seeing something that even it's own ensemble members aren't seeing or it's wrong

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well at least over here the NWS seems hopeful for a change

in the AFD this afternoon: Either way, we should finally experience some relief from
the heat as we move through the first week of October.
 
Brent said:
well at least over here the NWS seems hopeful for a change

in the AFD this afternoon: Either way, we should finally experience some relief from
the heat as we move through the first week of October.
Click to expand...
Yup, GSP mentioned it as well
"As alluded to in the beginning of the discussion, a pattern change may
be in the making for the middle part of next week as the strong
trough will slowly push east, gradually weakening the ridge
overhead. This may make way for the first true cold front passage of
the fall sometime late next week."
 
Knock down those temps by 5-7 degrees, as shown on the EURO and it will be close, but unfortunately I think it has the overall pattern right and the GFS is jumping on the trough coming East too soon. It will eventually do that but probably after 20 days or so, maybe a little more.
 
18z run of the GFS takes a little longer to get going cold front-wise for the lower portions of the southeast (NC gets BN temps by Friday afternoon, takes till Saturday for BN temps for rest of SE. Wouldn't this be nice
gfs_T2m_seus_41.png

gfs_T2m_seus_44.png
 
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haha...just noticed on this run that there has been ridging in the central US after all (as I checked 12z), so the heat gets concentrated over in the south-central US, maybe.
 
SD said:
The euro is as much as 15 degrees hotter than the eps mean in many locations at d10 and it's hotter than the hottest eps member. The euro has been way too warm and ridgy in the d7-10 period all summer. Either the model is seeing something that even it's own ensemble members aren't seeing or it's wrong

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I wouldn’t bet against those extreme temps the Euro OP is showing. With the ridge overhead and soil moisture nonexistent over the southeast, temps in the low to mid 90’s wouldn’t surprise me at all until both break.
 
Hmmmm, 6z GFS run pushes arrival of cold back a bit, with cold pushing into Carolinas on Saturday afternoon, then most of the SE overnight. Euro has a CAD-ish setup that weekend
 
Sure enough, since the strong hurricanes haven't been close to buff the ridge, a strong trough would be enough to move this horrible heat and break it up at least to some degree. At least the end is nearing.
 
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