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Pattern Hotober

GFS has completely lost the "cold front" for next weekend, it would appear
EDIT: big time CAD Saturday
gfs_T2m_seus_38.png
 
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Sleet City USA said:
GFS has completely lost the "cold front" for next weekend, it would appear
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I'm not worried about the cold it will come. Gfs has been showing this TC in the gulf, and with the lagging of the cold front spells trouble
 
Sleet City USA said:
GFS has completely lost the "cold front" for next weekend, it would appear
EDIT: big time CAD Saturday
gfs_T2m_seus_38.png
Click to expand...
Really though, it's picking up on a disturbance in the Gulf that could bring us some much needed rain. This is not a terrible scenario, 1) Get some rain, 2) buckle the ridge, 3) allow cooler air masses to come in afterwards. JMHO
 
SASQUATCH said:
Really though, it's picking up on a disturbance in the Gulf that could bring us some much needed rain. This is not a terrible scenario, 1) Get some rain, 2) buckle the ridge, 3) allow cooler air masses to come in afterwards. JMHO
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That actually sounds good to me
 
yeah if the disturbance coming up from the gulf becomes true (and it's possible as we've talked about it in the tropical forum), I'm okay losing the cold front to finally get some rain, I'm on day 25 without it.
 
Let the lemmings do as lemmings do, bottom line is next weekend is the pattern change we’ve been clamoring for. We don’t have a storm to help amplify things a bit more but it is going to feel noticeable cooler, wetter, and sets the stage.


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ATLwxfan said:
Let the lemmings do as lemmings do, bottom line is next weekend is the pattern change we’ve been clamoring for. We don’t have a storm to help amplify things a bit more but it is going to feel noticeable cooler, wetter, and sets the stage.


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That's true. This run turns out to not be bad to me at least with the temps, but I'm doubtful about the precip with my quick glances.

Maybe it's not much better in some areas, but in the interior southeast its better than the 90-95+'s.
 
just once can the Euro be the colder solution :rolleyes:

So
will it cool down across the region next week? Well, the only
glimmer of hope that we have will be Thursday and into Friday. The
Canadian and to some degree the GFS (and many of their ensemble
members) continue to plow a stout front through North and Central
Texas during the late to end part of the work week. The ECMWF does
show FROPA, but the associated CAA is not nearly as great as
suggested by the Canadian and GFS. The overall trend would favor
the ECMWF solution. Given the current spread among model
guidance, however, I will show a slight cool down (temperatures
in upper 80s and low 90s).
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
yeah if the disturbance coming up from the gulf becomes true (and it's possible as we've talked about it in the tropical forum), I'm okay losing the cold front to finally get some rain, I'm on day 25 without it.
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havent had a drop here in over 30 days
 
SouthATLwx said:
12z EURO holds serve.
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I'm assuming it doesn't even show the CAD which was the last depicted hope on the GFS? At this point I'm more concerned about moisture. How many weeks can trees go without rain before they start dying?
 
Brent said:
disgusting Euro run, looks more like August than October
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Eventually the heat will wane. Especially as days get shorter and cold air builds to our north. I'm not hanging on to every run when models, year in and year out, have a hard grasping pattern changes during transitional seasons. I think back to 2016 when in early October we were dealing with 80 degree highs even here in the mountains and a week later it was 40 degree highs. It will be on us soon, we're all just weary.
 
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