I know you realize this but, unfortunately the E US GEFS cold bias has been awful meaning this is very likely going to verify as being too cold. OTOH, if we could get the EPS to show the same and maintain it.....
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Pattern Hotober
- Thread starter NorthDFWwx
- Start date
I know you realize this but, unfortunately the E US GEFS cold bias has been awful meaning this is very likely going to verify as being too cold. OTOH, if we could get the EPS to show the same and maintain it.....
More regarding the E US GEFS cold bias from Maxar today:
"GFS Struggling In Warm Background State?
The GFS EN model is projecting a pattern change in early October, with a trough diving into the Eastern Half late in the 6-10 Day and lingering through the 11-15 Day period. Other models likewise project a round of cooler air into the Midwest and East, but the GFS EN is notably cooler. 17.9 GWHDDs separate the GFS EN (47.6) from its Euro counterpart (29.7) in the 11-15 Day period alone. Our forecast is a closer fit to the Euro model, as it has been and is seen as best in handling the strong –GLAAM background state, which historically is a warm pattern influence this time of year. The GFS EN has struggled of late, and this is echoed in its late September evolution at longer leads."
"GFS Struggling In Warm Background State?
The GFS EN model is projecting a pattern change in early October, with a trough diving into the Eastern Half late in the 6-10 Day and lingering through the 11-15 Day period. Other models likewise project a round of cooler air into the Midwest and East, but the GFS EN is notably cooler. 17.9 GWHDDs separate the GFS EN (47.6) from its Euro counterpart (29.7) in the 11-15 Day period alone. Our forecast is a closer fit to the Euro model, as it has been and is seen as best in handling the strong –GLAAM background state, which historically is a warm pattern influence this time of year. The GFS EN has struggled of late, and this is echoed in its late September evolution at longer leads."
Even the warmer eps mean drops our highs back into the low 80s next Friday then slowly backs down through the 70s through the end of the run. Eps also has 1.2 inches of rain here which is the highest I've seen since Dorian
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Michael_Ballew
Member
It's just to dog gone hot today and the humidity seems to have really came back today in NW GA. It just really sucks.
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Leaves are changing color 100% Becuase the DROUGHT, not fall 
smh if that doesn't get rid of the SER what will?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's not the run for me but that EPS gives me hoooopppppeeeeee with me translating on how it'd look further south lol. The OP might just be out to lunch.
My translating is probably still above average for time of year (edit, well, maybe right at average), but it'd 100% make more sense than mid 90s and it's relieving anyway.
My translating is probably still above average for time of year (edit, well, maybe right at average), but it'd 100% make more sense than mid 90s and it's relieving anyway.
Fountainguy97
Member
Ok it’s happening! Remain calm!!!! 
GFS is back at it again with the 10/5 CAD. Still forever away and cold biased.
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Did you mean 10/05?GFS is back at it again with the 8/5 CAD. Still forever away and cold biased.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I see that 100 in Alabama. Every bit of that CAD would be needed. Woof.
Seriously, if this wasn't over a week still I'd be cautiously optimistic. It'd be cheap but the CAD would work, and sometimes at least in the past I've had my temps bust lower than the forecast with it.
Seriously, if this wasn't over a week still I'd be cautiously optimistic. It'd be cheap but the CAD would work, and sometimes at least in the past I've had my temps bust lower than the forecast with it.
Lol yeah idk what i was thinking
That it feels like August 5th?
Did you get this from a winter AFF last year?? ??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This... is simply not fair.
50" of snow... in September?!
I know it's the northern Rockies and there's absolutely no way any of us would see snow this early in the season, but it's hard not to be extremely jealous from afar.
50" of snow... in September?!
I know it's the northern Rockies and there's absolutely no way any of us would see snow this early in the season, but it's hard not to be extremely jealous from afar.
pcbjr
Member
I have friends that live up there ... wonder why they fly down here 3 or 4 times a winter to hole up in Hogtown?
These are the dog days of Fall. And why can't they deploy a model that is warm-biased in the long range? That would solve a lot of problems, not the least of which would be wildly improving accuracy.