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Pattern Hotober

pcbjr said:
I have friends that live up there ... wonder why they fly down here 3 or 4 times a winter to hole up in Hogtown?
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My wife is from there (Helena). I showed her the map and is glad she is not up there now. I’m ready to pack my bags and head up there. Bozeman is beautiful.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This... is simply not fair.

50" of snow... in September?!

I know it's the northern Rockies and there's absolutely no way any of us would see snow this early in the season, but it's hard not to be extremely jealous from afar.


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Maybe when the pattern flips and we go straight to winter in October, we’ll get an October winter storm ?
 
Man, what a nice , refreshing read! A lot better than reading about record heat and flash drought!2AB1B6E8-5EF3-44C7-81C5-0C8C699C0B00.png
 
Good thing about the warmth is, when we start getting winter storms threats, water temps will be warm enough for some rich deep lows to form off the gulf coast and create some high ratios with snow
 
accu35 said:
Good thing about the warmth is, when we start getting winter storms threats, water temps will be warm enough for some rich deep lows to form off the gulf coast and create some high ratios with snow
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Warm oceans, cold continents!
 
GFS back to a nice cool look next weekend with some nice cold fronts coming down afterwards. Just need to suffer through next week and we should have a really nice first weekend in October.
 
Euro really seems out to lunch. Maybe GFS is overplaying the cold but Euro missing it altogether at least through D10


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GFS backing off on CAD until Sunday. May be more in line with the Euro waiting until the following week. Change is definitely coming but the timing is up in the air.


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The GFS actually makes some sense, just hope that the pushbacks aren't a bad sign. It took a week into October before we truly got rid of summer last year and even then there was warm days mixed in at times.

Maybe Lorenzo does do us a favor like I saw in the thread and helps to start flipping the pattern in about 10 days.
 
The CMC shows a slight hint of CAD, but then has lows in the high 60s and 70s all the way up the east coast on Monday morning, even New Hampshire.
 
On the Euro you can see the ridge starting to break down with help from Lorenzo starting at 120.

One difference so far though is what looks like a wave that's going to sweep in cooler weather doesn't look as strong.

Edit: Aaaanddddd in the end they end up really differing. Euro ends up building back in the ridge after a short relaxation period. After 144, they really differ in how to sort out the upper air pattern. GFS has Lorenzo still strong which might help. Euro has him weaker and he ends up breaking off from the trough unlike the GFS.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
On the Euro you can see the ridge starting to break down with help from Lorenzo starting at 120.

One difference so far though is what looks like a wave that's going to sweep in cooler weather doesn't look as strong.

Edit: Aaaanddddd in the end they end up really differing. Euro ends up building back in the ridge after a short relaxation period. After 144, they really differ in how to sort out the upper air pattern. GFS has Lorenzo still strong which might help. Euro has him weaker and he ends up breaking off from the trough unlike the GFS.
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euro says... summer continues for southeast
 
The GFS has a beautiful rainstorm for most of the Carolina's. I've noticed the GEFS does have a few members with a nice storm, so that gives it some merit.
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tennessee storm said:
euro says... summer continues for southeast
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I would say above normal temps but certainly not what we’ve seen this week and what we will see next week. It’s not what we would like to see but not even a stout ridge will keep us in the mid to upper 90’s for much longer.


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ATLwxfan said:
I would say above normal temps but certainly not what we’ve seen this week and what we will see next week. It’s not what we would like to see but not even a stout ridge will keep us in the mid to upper 90’s for much longer.


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At this point most would be happy with low to mid 80s.
 
Got some cloud cover with what looks like a decent thunderstorm back towards the Anniston, AL area but temperatures here haven't cooled much, still in the lows 90's with the clouds.

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