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Pattern Hotober

Myfrotho704_ said:
The grass around here literally turns to dust when you step on it, creates a cloud of allergies/dead plant cells, this “nice” weather gots to go
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tennessee storm said:
Euro says. Enjoy this... cause heat isn’t going no where fast
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0Z Euro has way above average temps and less than .25" of rain here through the next 10 days (through 10-3-2019). I hope it's wrong, but it's probably not.
 
GFS looks to stay consistent with the front coming Friday
gfs_T2ma_us_41.png

gfs_T2m_us_42.png

As I post these images, I need not remind y'all that this is the hour 246 GFS. If we're still talking cold front as we get into this weekend, then we can start getting excited
 
Well, I'm not gonna be the negative Nacy here, but changes is coming. Also this is the first run showing snow showers up in Snow shoes and PA.
gfs_T2m_seus_44.png
 
With:

*The MJO hanging out in Phase 1
*The NAO going positive
*The PNA remaining negative
*Worsening drought conditions

I find the GFS is very hard to believe. But we'll see.
 
I might just take a peek at the weeklies to see what they say.... never mind...i'm afraid to look. :(
 
SouthATLwx said:
With:

*The MJO hanging out in Phase 1
*The NAO going positive
*The PNA remaining negative
*Worsening drought conditions

I find the GFS is very hard to believe. But we'll see.
Click to expand...

GEFS does at least break down the ridge a bit. Others have mentioned this as well but the saving grace is that even if the ridge largely persists the maximum temps would still come down to more tolerable levels by mid to late October which will be a welcomed relief.


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The Euro weeklies FWIW have a pattern charge a week earlier, with a slightly better pattern overall. When I say pattern change, I mean average heights. The control is actually much more encouraging.
Previous mean run
1572825600-suFgruScO5A.png

Latest mean run
1573171200-yXwaER3ujrw.png

Previous Control Run
1572825600-qW9UMt5d5Sk.png

Latest Control run

1573171200-Cc66Mv4ToS0.png
 
tennessee storm said:
Euro operational won’t let the heat go... that’s red flag still
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If it went to days 10-15 it would likely be tempering the heat down as well. That 1034 it has in the plains at d10 along with the flattening of the trough would be enough to get areas down into the seasonably warm range instead of the raging heat we currently have.

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Atleast we are seeing some signs of fall in the long range, hopefully not vanishing like our winter hunts for cold! Don’t know how we get rain with dry fronts!
 
This can’t last indefinitely even if we bittercast it to. We are seeing some across model support for at the very least a relaxing of the ridge.


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GFS continues to show cold front next Friday. Wouldn't it be nice if another model actually agreed with it?
 
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