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Pattern Hotober

ATLwxfan said:
The hammer about to get dropped. Tropical low getting pulled in and might explode off the coast. Giddyap folks...pattern change and then some.


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Your not kidding....If the GFS LR is correct, many folks across the SE could be talking frost (..freeze mts) after the first week of October.

So we have some hope, but way out in fantasy land right now....
 
Ensemble support is meh right now which should give you pause although the ridge is beaten back.


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accu35 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_60.png
Alsmost like a winter storm set up lol
Click to expand...

Overrunning drought storm
 
The GFS and GGEM/EURO couldn't be any more different in the long range.
 
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This 12z run of the GFS for GSO has lost its mind. It forecasts a High of 46 on October 8th!
Looking back at Greensboro's history, October for Minimum high this temp would break the record for October 8th high which reached 49 back in 1952
It would lose the record for October by 3 dates tied in 1981 on the 25, In 1925 it reached 41 in 1925 on the 30th and 45 on the 31 that same year.
I don't see this happening because of It's the FV3. However, the GFS has been consistent with a cool down happening on the 4th
1569240000-QReAyNzZBRc.png

Boone stays in the '30s that day. Crazy to compare that we'll be in the '80s this week
1569240000-ejWTDJ2Cm1Y.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
This 12z run of the GFS for GSO has lost its mind. It forecasts a High of 46 on October 8th!
Looking back at Greensboro's history, October for Minimum high this temp would break the record for October 8th high which reached 49 back in 1952
It would lose the record for October by 3 dates tied in 1981 on the 25, In 1925 it reached 41 in 1925 on the 30th and 45 on the 31 that same year.
I don't see this happening because of It's the FV3. However, the GFS has been consistent with a cool down happening on the 4th
1569240000-QReAyNzZBRc.png

Boone stays in the '30s that day. Crazy to compare that we'll be in the '80s this week
1569240000-ejWTDJ2Cm1Y.png
Click to expand...
Not saying this happens for us, but as they say, "What goes up ..."

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Ollie Williams said:
This 12z run of the GFS for GSO has lost its mind. It forecasts a High of 46 on October 8th!
Looking back at Greensboro's history, October for Minimum high this temp would break the record for October 8th high which reached 49 back in 1952
It would lose the record for October by 3 dates tied in 1981 on the 25, In 1925 it reached 41 in 1925 on the 30th and 45 on the 31 that same year.
I don't see this happening because of It's the FV3. However, the GFS has been consistent with a cool down happening on the 4th
1569240000-QReAyNzZBRc.png

Boone stays in the '30s that day. Crazy to compare that we'll be in the '80s this week
1569240000-ejWTDJ2Cm1Y.png
Click to expand...
Lol the GFS is really going hard on the good stuff today
 
FWIW the legacy GFS is in decent agreement with its brother. I have limited EURO access, but it does appear to have some semblance of a cold front at hr240 making its way down the plains
 
Ollie Williams said:
This 12z run of the GFS for GSO has lost its mind. It forecasts a High of 46 on October 8th!
Looking back at Greensboro's history, October for Minimum high this temp would break the record for October 8th high which reached 49 back in 1952
It would lose the record for October by 3 dates tied in 1981 on the 25, In 1925 it reached 41 in 1925 on the 30th and 45 on the 31 that same year.
I don't see this happening because of It's the FV3. However, the GFS has been consistent with a cool down happening on the 4th
1569240000-QReAyNzZBRc.png

Boone stays in the '30s that day. Crazy to compare that we'll be in the '80s this week
1569240000-ejWTDJ2Cm1Y.png
Click to expand...
I'll bet my right ..... um .... little toe, that this forecast doesn't happen.
 
Paging webber to help explain how the east asian mountain torque event will impact our weather. I think it means that we will see some pretty stout high pressure dislodged from the higher latitudes that will move into the US in the D10+ range and may be the reason the gfs is freaking out with the cold.

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It's possible the GFS is mostly right. This looks a lot like how a hot dry pattern broke in 1986 in the 1st week of October. It would probably not get as cold as the model shows now though, at least during the day.
 
long range gfs still showing our first true cold front next weekend. one of those wx events that I always look forward to every year, the first morning walking outside to truly crisp air is the best.
 
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