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Pattern Hotober

Myfrotho704_ said:
The grass around here literally turns to dust when you step on it, creates a cloud of allergies/dead plant cells, this “nice” weather gots to go
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tennessee storm said:
Euro says. Enjoy this... cause heat isn’t going no where fast
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0Z Euro has way above average temps and less than .25" of rain here through the next 10 days (through 10-3-2019). I hope it's wrong, but it's probably not.
 
GFS looks to stay consistent with the front coming Friday
gfs_T2ma_us_41.png

gfs_T2m_us_42.png

As I post these images, I need not remind y'all that this is the hour 246 GFS. If we're still talking cold front as we get into this weekend, then we can start getting excited
 
Well, I'm not gonna be the negative Nacy here, but changes is coming. Also this is the first run showing snow showers up in Snow shoes and PA.
gfs_T2m_seus_44.png
 
With:

*The MJO hanging out in Phase 1
*The NAO going positive
*The PNA remaining negative
*Worsening drought conditions

I find the GFS is very hard to believe. But we'll see.
 
I might just take a peek at the weeklies to see what they say.... never mind...i'm afraid to look. :(
 
SouthATLwx said:
With:

*The MJO hanging out in Phase 1
*The NAO going positive
*The PNA remaining negative
*Worsening drought conditions

I find the GFS is very hard to believe. But we'll see.
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GEFS does at least break down the ridge a bit. Others have mentioned this as well but the saving grace is that even if the ridge largely persists the maximum temps would still come down to more tolerable levels by mid to late October which will be a welcomed relief.


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The Euro weeklies FWIW have a pattern charge a week earlier, with a slightly better pattern overall. When I say pattern change, I mean average heights. The control is actually much more encouraging.
Previous mean run
1572825600-suFgruScO5A.png

Latest mean run
1573171200-yXwaER3ujrw.png

Previous Control Run
1572825600-qW9UMt5d5Sk.png

Latest Control run

1573171200-Cc66Mv4ToS0.png
 
tennessee storm said:
Euro operational won’t let the heat go... that’s red flag still
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If it went to days 10-15 it would likely be tempering the heat down as well. That 1034 it has in the plains at d10 along with the flattening of the trough would be enough to get areas down into the seasonably warm range instead of the raging heat we currently have.

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Atleast we are seeing some signs of fall in the long range, hopefully not vanishing like our winter hunts for cold! Don’t know how we get rain with dry fronts!
 
This can’t last indefinitely even if we bittercast it to. We are seeing some across model support for at the very least a relaxing of the ridge.


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GFS continues to show cold front next Friday. Wouldn't it be nice if another model actually agreed with it?
 
pcbjr said:
It would be nice if the GFS agrees with itself, say 6 or 9 runs in a row ... but I dream ...
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Indeed. It has agreed with itself for 4 runs in a row, and 6 of the last 9. But again, its still out past 240.
 
cd2play said:
We better hope October doesn't end up as dry as September, or we could be looking at near historic drought conditions.
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Even worse if we get some hefty cold fronts later on with gusty winds fanning the parched landscape. Even down here we haven't gotten that much rain in September.
 
You guys crack me up LOL!! If you live in the southeast, then you can expect all kinds of weather at any given time. Also we have all seen our winters suck with temps and suck with precipitation, especially during winter storm. That's the whole part about the good ole south. I'm a true winter fan, I love my cold and snowy winter also, but if I can at least score once or twice this year than I'm happy.
 
cd2play said:
We better hope October doesn't end up as dry as September, or we could be looking at near historic drought conditions.
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October is climatological driest month in S.C., so not much hope!
 
Those banking on the long range GEFS should pump the brakes a little. The EURO is nasty all the way through October and has a much better track record than the GFS (snd it's GEFS ensembles). It will eventually break in a big way but will take 20-30 days IMO
 
MichaelJ said:
Those banking on the long range GEFS should pump the brakes a little. The EURO is nasty all the way through October and has a much better track record than the GFS (snd it's GEFS ensembles). It will eventually break in a big way but will take 20-30 days IMO
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You may be right, but the gfs has been showing a nice cold front by next weekend and I know it's a long ways out but it's been consistent so far. We can only hope.
 
Gfs says, your pattern change is coming. Nice trough starting around 10-4 to 10-8 and maybe more, I logged off
 
GFS seems locked in on October 4th as the day at least for now.

I'm kinda hopeful. Maybe we at least get rid of the 95+'s due to time of year and not as big of a ridge. Regardless, even if we somehow get rid of the heat completely the dryness is a big issue.
 
The latest model runs continue to show the pattern change ~ Oct 4th. Even the euro is on board.

The only thing that I hate, is it may go straight from AC to heat. The 6z GFS has RDU with a high near 90 on Oct 3rd, then in the mid 50s on Oct 4th (lows in the low to mid 40s). **No break for my electric bill......
 
FallsLake said:
The latest model runs continue to show the pattern change ~ Oct 4th. Even the euro is on board.

The only thing that I hate, is it may go straight from AC to heat. The 6z GFS has RDU with a high near 90 on Oct 3rd, then in the mid 50s on Oct 4th (lows in the low to mid 40s). **No break for my electric bill......
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Turn off the AC a day early and let the house warm up.

Want to see some more ensemble support. Safe to say that at least we will get a reprieve.


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Well if we're gonna torch then might as well torch the record books. Adios all-time record October high of 94 in CHA along with the latest ever 95+ of 9/25. I think we'll hit 97 here.
 
accu35 said:
You guys crack me up LOL!! If you live in the southeast, then you can expect all kinds of weather at any given time. Also we have all seen our winters suck with temps and suck with precipitation, especially during winter storm. That's the whole part about the good ole south. I'm a true winter fan, I love my cold and snowy winter also, but if I can at least score once or twice this year than I'm happy.
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cyclogent said:
Well if we're gonna torch then might as well torch the record books. Adios all-time record October high of 94 in CHA along with the latest ever 95+ of 9/25. I think we'll hit 97 here.
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Hopefully it will be the last big ass heatwave of the season
 
Greensboro will set all time record for driest September ever. Had some drizzle apparently sweep through one day for 3 minutes dumping a whopping .002 or some mess.
 
Well it would appear the GFS is locked in on a front next Friday. I think this is the 7th run in a row? I'd love to see the euro continue to show BN temps for day 9-10 like it did at 0z. Overnight lows for 8/5:
gfs_T2m_seus_41.png


Also worth noting: this CAD signature for next Monday
gfs_T2m_seus_22.png
 
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