GFS has completely lost the "cold front" for next weekend, it would appear
EDIT: big time CAD Saturday
EDIT: big time CAD Saturday
Last edited:
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Pattern Hotober
- Thread starter NorthDFWwx
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accu35
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I'm not worried about the cold it will come. Gfs has been showing this TC in the gulf, and with the lagging of the cold front spells trouble
What a shocker. Our falls have become a joke.GFS has completely lost the "cold front" for next weekend, it would appear
EDIT: big time CAD Saturday
Really though, it's picking up on a disturbance in the Gulf that could bring us some much needed rain. This is not a terrible scenario, 1) Get some rain, 2) buckle the ridge, 3) allow cooler air masses to come in afterwards. JMHOGFS has completely lost the "cold front" for next weekend, it would appear
EDIT: big time CAD Saturday
accu35
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That actually sounds good to me
GeorgiaGirl
Member
yeah if the disturbance coming up from the gulf becomes true (and it's possible as we've talked about it in the tropical forum), I'm okay losing the cold front to finally get some rain, I'm on day 25 without it.
ATLwxfan
Member
Let the lemmings do as lemmings do, bottom line is next weekend is the pattern change we’ve been clamoring for. We don’t have a storm to help amplify things a bit more but it is going to feel noticeable cooler, wetter, and sets the stage.
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GFS has completely lost the "cold front" for next weekend, it would appear
EDIT: big time CAD Saturday
Not surprised.
We're still 7 days out. So I'm sure there will be more changes.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
That's true. This run turns out to not be bad to me at least with the temps, but I'm doubtful about the precip with my quick glances.
Maybe it's not much better in some areas, but in the interior southeast its better than the 90-95+'s.
Brent
Member
just once can the Euro be the colder solution 
So
will it cool down across the region next week? Well, the only
glimmer of hope that we have will be Thursday and into Friday. The
Canadian and to some degree the GFS (and many of their ensemble
members) continue to plow a stout front through North and Central
Texas during the late to end part of the work week. The ECMWF does
show FROPA, but the associated CAA is not nearly as great as
suggested by the Canadian and GFS. The overall trend would favor
the ECMWF solution. Given the current spread among model
guidance, however, I will show a slight cool down (temperatures
in upper 80s and low 90s).
So
will it cool down across the region next week? Well, the only
glimmer of hope that we have will be Thursday and into Friday. The
Canadian and to some degree the GFS (and many of their ensemble
members) continue to plow a stout front through North and Central
Texas during the late to end part of the work week. The ECMWF does
show FROPA, but the associated CAA is not nearly as great as
suggested by the Canadian and GFS. The overall trend would favor
the ECMWF solution. Given the current spread among model
guidance, however, I will show a slight cool down (temperatures
in upper 80s and low 90s).
JLL1973
Member
havent had a drop here in over 30 days
12z EURO holds serve.
Brent
Member
disgusting Euro run, looks more like August than October
Might be time to transfer and move up north. Do you really wanna deal with another hot summer in Texas?
I'm assuming it doesn't even show the CAD which was the last depicted hope on the GFS? At this point I'm more concerned about moisture. How many weeks can trees go without rain before they start dying?
Brent
Member
how shocking... not
The once much-ballyhooed cold front that was being advertised for
later in the week is looking less impressive now with the latest
ensemble means showing little change in our mid-upper level longwave
pattern.
The once much-ballyhooed cold front that was being advertised for
later in the week is looking less impressive now with the latest
ensemble means showing little change in our mid-upper level longwave
pattern.
accu35
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LOL!!!
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
Eventually the heat will wane. Especially as days get shorter and cold air builds to our north. I'm not hanging on to every run when models, year in and year out, have a hard grasping pattern changes during transitional seasons. I think back to 2016 when in early October we were dealing with 80 degree highs even here in the mountains and a week later it was 40 degree highs. It will be on us soon, we're all just weary.
I know you realize this but, unfortunately the E US GEFS cold bias has been awful meaning this is very likely going to verify as being too cold. OTOH, if we could get the EPS to show the same and maintain it.....
More regarding the E US GEFS cold bias from Maxar today:
"GFS Struggling In Warm Background State?
The GFS EN model is projecting a pattern change in early October, with a trough diving into the Eastern Half late in the 6-10 Day and lingering through the 11-15 Day period. Other models likewise project a round of cooler air into the Midwest and East, but the GFS EN is notably cooler. 17.9 GWHDDs separate the GFS EN (47.6) from its Euro counterpart (29.7) in the 11-15 Day period alone. Our forecast is a closer fit to the Euro model, as it has been and is seen as best in handling the strong –GLAAM background state, which historically is a warm pattern influence this time of year. The GFS EN has struggled of late, and this is echoed in its late September evolution at longer leads."
"GFS Struggling In Warm Background State?
The GFS EN model is projecting a pattern change in early October, with a trough diving into the Eastern Half late in the 6-10 Day and lingering through the 11-15 Day period. Other models likewise project a round of cooler air into the Midwest and East, but the GFS EN is notably cooler. 17.9 GWHDDs separate the GFS EN (47.6) from its Euro counterpart (29.7) in the 11-15 Day period alone. Our forecast is a closer fit to the Euro model, as it has been and is seen as best in handling the strong –GLAAM background state, which historically is a warm pattern influence this time of year. The GFS EN has struggled of late, and this is echoed in its late September evolution at longer leads."
Even the warmer eps mean drops our highs back into the low 80s next Friday then slowly backs down through the 70s through the end of the run. Eps also has 1.2 inches of rain here which is the highest I've seen since Dorian
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Michael_Ballew
Member
It's just to dog gone hot today and the humidity seems to have really came back today in NW GA. It just really sucks.
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Leaves are changing color 100% Becuase the DROUGHT, not fall 
smh if that doesn't get rid of the SER what will?
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's not the run for me but that EPS gives me hoooopppppeeeeee with me translating on how it'd look further south lol. The OP might just be out to lunch.
My translating is probably still above average for time of year (edit, well, maybe right at average), but it'd 100% make more sense than mid 90s and it's relieving anyway.
My translating is probably still above average for time of year (edit, well, maybe right at average), but it'd 100% make more sense than mid 90s and it's relieving anyway.
Fountainguy97
Member
Ok it’s happening! Remain calm!!!! 
GFS is back at it again with the 10/5 CAD. Still forever away and cold biased.
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Did you mean 10/05?GFS is back at it again with the 8/5 CAD. Still forever away and cold biased.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I see that 100 in Alabama. Every bit of that CAD would be needed. Woof.
Seriously, if this wasn't over a week still I'd be cautiously optimistic. It'd be cheap but the CAD would work, and sometimes at least in the past I've had my temps bust lower than the forecast with it.
Seriously, if this wasn't over a week still I'd be cautiously optimistic. It'd be cheap but the CAD would work, and sometimes at least in the past I've had my temps bust lower than the forecast with it.
Lol yeah idk what i was thinking
That it feels like August 5th?
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Did you get this from a winter AFF last year?? ??
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This... is simply not fair.
50" of snow... in September?!
I know it's the northern Rockies and there's absolutely no way any of us would see snow this early in the season, but it's hard not to be extremely jealous from afar.
50" of snow... in September?!
I know it's the northern Rockies and there's absolutely no way any of us would see snow this early in the season, but it's hard not to be extremely jealous from afar.
pcbjr
Member
I have friends that live up there ... wonder why they fly down here 3 or 4 times a winter to hole up in Hogtown?
These are the dog days of Fall. And why can't they deploy a model that is warm-biased in the long range? That would solve a lot of problems, not the least of which would be wildly improving accuracy.