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Pattern Hotober

The 18z GFS has a decent rain event in upstate SC in around 5 days for now. No way it'll be right. We will be lucky to get a drop SE of I-85 for the next 2 weeks.
 
KyloG said:
Some more +10 to +15 departures to end the month. Going to go out on a limb that the day 8+ BN departures wont verify or be short lived at best.

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You can see the longwave pattern wanting to repeat over and over with the trough in the SW and riding over the SE. Of course, it breaks down in the uber LR, but we already know that troughs, blocking, and cold on the GFS way out there are just code for the afore mentioned repeating pattern.
 
Rain Cold said:
You can see the longwave pattern wanting to repeat over and over with the trough in the SW and riding over the SE. Of course, it breaks down in the uber LR, but we already know that troughs, blocking, and cold on the GFS way out there are just code for the afore mentioned repeating pattern.
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I love how all the models suck! The GFS has a known cold bias, now it seems to have developed a heavy rain bias! Showing big totals at 4-5 days out and then cutting totals by 90%
 
JHS said:
The 18z GFS has a decent rain event in upstate SC in around 5 days for now. No way it'll be right. We will be lucky to get a drop SE of I-85 for the next 2 weeks.
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Would suck for Halloween, but luckily, it’s the GFS and will be p/c in actuality!F78EE96B-0F28-4E17-B516-449F6EB2C432.png
 
Already NW shift from 18z! Mountains and E TN crushed! St Louis is mostly rain now, was heavy snow at 18z! I love the GFSCB7FB072-A163-42DA-98EE-B4BD609F7DFF.png
 
campamy said:
Just wow at the rain here today! Checked a few stations around me and they are all showing around 3.30" +/- ! After being shut out so much this is awesome!
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We made up for that dryspell didn't we lol. KCHA officially logged 3.27" yesterday making it the wettest day of 2019! Have to go back to September 2018 to find a rainier day.
 
Eastern NC under a level 2 threat tomorrow for severe storms. Level 1 threat for me.
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BlueRidgeFolklore said:
THERE’S NO E IN SMOKY MOUNTAINS!

???

Sorry man, I had to vent. That’s been one of my biggest pet peeves ever since I was in a Cracker Barrel in Asheville and saw them selling GSMNP branded gear and it was spelled incorrectly.

Gorgeous pictures however!
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Haha so funny because I’ve seen stores named “Smokey mountains.” Actually was over in grandfather mountain anyway today so fixed that ??
 
Brick Tamland said:
Eastern NC under a level 2 threat tomorrow for severe storms. Level 1 threat for me.
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Wouldn't be entirely surprised to wake up to some storms early tomorrow. The second shot comes late in the afternoon but it's really similar to the last severe threat with a thin broken line of convection where one or 2 cells could really get going

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Overall I'd say this has been a Hotober. No freezes for most of us outside the mountains. Record heat to start the month, and some areas even hit 100. Even tonight has a muggy-ish feel to it.
 
70 degree dewpoint right now... Ugh go away, forever. At least until May. At least it won't last but a few more hours.
 
never got out of the 40s yesterday(which was a record lowest max), today almost hit 70 with sunshine, tomorrow may push 80, and then we start crashing down again, talk of a possible freeze for Halloween(which could be a top 10 earliest freeze if it happens), crazy stuff

the airport has almost erased the above normal anomalies this month and after Monday most of this week is gonna be way below again
 
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Gonna be a Texas winter... storm track favoring north Texas, Ark, mid-south, Kentucky. Dallas hits the single digits more than once. San Antonio sees accumulating snow. Dallas gets one or two 6 inch storms, East Tn gets marginal cold, and possibly snowy towards mountains and higher valley locations. CHA, hit or miss. Gotta get lucky with Dec or Jan slider. Winter over Feb 1, for most of the South. Both Carolinas are in for a weepy time in the snow/cold department. Zero rationale for this forecast, pure gut feeling.
 
SETNwx said:
Gonna be a Texas winter... storm track favoring north Texas, Ark, mid-south, Kentucky. Dallas hits the single digits more than once. San Antonio sees accumulating snow. Dallas gets one or two 6 inch storms, East Tn gets marginal cold, and possibly snowy towards mountains and higher valley locations. CHA, hit or miss. Gotta get lucky with Dec or Jan slider. Winter over Feb 1, for most of the South. Both Carolinas are in for a weepy time in the snow/cold department. Zero rationale for this forecast, pure gut feeling.
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well we haven't seen more than a trace since 2015 so that would be fitting :p
 
SETNwx said:
Gonna be a Texas winter... storm track favoring north Texas, Ark, mid-south, Kentucky. Dallas hits the single digits more than once. San Antonio sees accumulating snow. Dallas gets one or two 6 inch storms, East Tn gets marginal cold, and possibly snowy towards mountains and higher valley locations. CHA, hit or miss. Gotta get lucky with Dec or Jan slider. Winter over Feb 1, for most of the South. Both Carolinas are in for a weepy time in the snow/cold department. Zero rationale for this forecast, pure gut feeling.
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The wedge will save the Carolinas !
 
SD said:
Wouldn't be entirely surprised to wake up to some storms early tomorrow. The second shot comes late in the afternoon but it's really similar to the last severe threat with a thin broken line of convection where one or 2 cells could really get going

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Sure feels suspect out there this morning, gusty south winds, temp 71 and DP 71

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Most every rain event /bullseye, has shifted NW or W, with the heaviest rain, inside 3-4 days the last few weeks! Here’s one that won’t:43436DE1-989E-438B-8B32-392FB4EDA7E1.png
 
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