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Pattern Hotober

Praying that the stratocumulus field stays where it's at

We've had mostly sunny skies here most of the morning.

20191027_1506_sat_vis_mgm.jpg
 
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GaWx said:
Update for 18Z on 10/30: Whereas the 12Z Euro dropped from 75 to 70, the 18Z GFS rose sharply from
50 to 65. So, the Euro and GFS are only 5 apart on their latest runs vs 25 when I did the same analysis just yesterday.
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As of today’s 12Z GFS and 0Z Euro, the Euro and GFS are now only about 2 degrees apart for 18Z on 10/30 at ATL with the GFS near 68 and the Euro near 70. When I first started following this 4 days ago, the GFS was near 50 and the Euro was near 75. So, the GFS has risen 18 while the Euro has fallen 5.

GFS FV3 cold bias FTL as usual it appears.
 
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GaWx said:
As of today’s 12Z GFS and 0Z Euro, the Euro and GFS are now only about 2 degrees apart for 18Z on 10/30 at ATL with the GFS near 68 and the Euro near 70. When I first started following this 4 days ago, the GFS was near 50 and the Euro was near 75. So, the GFS has risen 18 while the Euro has fallen 5.

GFS FV3 cold bias FTL as usual it appears.
Click to expand...
The GFS adjusted the timing of the front to line up with the euro. Move a day ahead on the GFS and compare the euro and GFS then. The Euro and GFS seem to at the moment be just a couple of degrees off as well on the 1st and almost identical on the 31st as of the 0Z euro and 12Z GFS. I think in this case it's more of a progressive bias than a cold one.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The GFS adjusted the timing of the front to line up with the euro. Move a day ahead on the GFS and compare the euro and GFS then. The Euro and GFS seem to at the moment be just a couple of degrees off as well on the 1st and almost identical on the 31st as of the 0Z euro and 12Z GFS. I think in this case it's more of a progressive bias than a cold one.
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It is a combo and is intertwined as part of the issue. The GFS' tendency to have too strong E US troughing and too much W US ridging, indeed, tends to cause the GFS to be more progressive, which in itself is very much intertwined with its cold E US bias. The faster progression of Arctic air on the GFS tends to allow it to come in faster and therefore less modified/colder. It is part of the reason that the GFS has a strong cold bias.

Here's today's 12Z GFS, which I'll compare to the 12Z run of 10/23 that had a 2 PM 10/30 of only 50 at ATL:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2019102712&text=KATL

As one can see, not only does today's 12Z have 69 for 2 PM on 10/30, it now has a whopping 76 at 18Z on 10/31 vs the 52 for that same time on the 12/23 12Z run! Only on 11/1 (two days later) does it have 55 at 18Z, which is still 5 warmer than the 50 of 10/30 from the 12Z 10/23 run. Also, the low for 11/1 on today's 12Z run is only down to 39 now. Compare that to the coldest of the 10/23 12Z run of 32 one day earlier.

The 12Z 10/23 run had a morning low of 38 on 10/30, a 32 on 10/31 and a 35 on 11/1:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2019102312&text=KATL

To summarize, here are the AM lows and 2 PMs for ATL for 10/30-11/1 on today's 12Z run vs the 10/23 12Z run:

12Z GFS run....10/30 AM low....10/30 2 PM....10/31 AM low....10/31 2 PM....11/1 AM low....11/1 2 PM
10/27.........….....65...………......………..69...….........…….67..................……...76......……...…….39.......................55
10/23.................38.........…...............….50.........…...…….32...............………...52........................35..................….53

Moral of the story: go by the Euro over the GFS and one will end up closer most of the time. The FV3 cold bias won't go away at least until a modification is made. This will be a pain in the butt this winter and I'm not lookin forward to it.
 
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Way underforecasted rain totals. 3-5” in north west nc in areas like Sparta Boone etc per NWS Blacksburg
 
GaWx said:
It is a combo and is intertwined as part of the issue. The GFS' tendency to have too strong E US troughing and too much W US ridging, indeed, tends to cause the GFS to be more progressive, which in itself is very much intertwined with its cold E US bias. The faster progression of Arctic air on the GFS tends to allow it to come in faster and therefore less modified/colder. It is part of the reason that the GFS has a strong cold bias.

Here's today's 12Z GFS, which I'll compare to the 12Z run of 10/23 that had a 2 PM 10/30 of only 50 at ATL:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2019102712&text=KATL

As one can see, not only does today's 12Z have 69 for 2 PM on 10/30, it now has a whopping 76 at 18Z on 10/31 vs the 52 for that same time on the 12/23 12Z run! Only on 11/1 (two days later) does it have 55 at 18Z, which is still 5 warmer than the 50 of 10/30 from the 12Z 10/23 run. Also, the low for 11/1 on today's 12Z run is only down to 39 now. Compare that to the coldest of the 10/23 12Z run of 32 one day earlier.

The 12Z 10/23 run had a morning low of 38 on 10/30, a 32 on 10/31 and a 35 on 11/1:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2019102312&text=KATL

To summarize, here are the AM lows and 2 PMs for ATL for 10/30-11/1 on today's 12Z run vs the 10/23 12Z run:

12Z GFS run....10/30 AM low....10/30 2 PM....10/31 AM low....10/31 2 PM....11/1 AM low....11/1 2 PM
10/27.........….....65...………......………..69...….........…….67..................……...76......……...…….39.......................55
10/23.................38.........…...............….50.........…...…….32...............………...52........................35..................….53

Moral of the story: go by the Euro over the GFS and one will end up closer most of the time. The FV3 cold bias won't go away at least until a modification is made. This will be a pain in the butt this winter and I'm not lookin forward to it.
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Yep we will continue to see the super cold range scenarios in the long range gfs like we did last year. BUT the fv3 cold bias has been corrected about half of what it was last year.

I still expect to see plenty of cold in long range gfs that doesn’t happen.

and honestly why does the gfs go out to 384 anyway? Should stop at 300 or even 240.

basically don’t even look at gfs past 240 this winter. It’ll be hard because it’ll be spitting out tons of cold and fantasy snow but it’s just not reality.
 
As the cell was to the north of us, there wasn't any rain. now sunny and beautiful
 
Stuff like this is why I like following this site ... GaWx, Webb, so many of you of you provide great analysis and information. Hoping and praying for a great winter season. Regardless what happens, there will be something to talk and/or gripe about!


GaWx said:
It is a combo and is intertwined as part of the issue. The GFS' tendency to have too strong E US troughing and too much W US ridging, indeed, tends to cause the GFS to be more progressive, which in itself is very much intertwined with its cold E US bias. The faster progression of Arctic air on the GFS tends to allow it to come in faster and therefore less modified/colder. It is part of the reason that the GFS has a strong cold bias.

Here's today's 12Z GFS, which I'll compare to the 12Z run of 10/23 that had a 2 PM 10/30 of only 50 at ATL:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2019102712&text=KATL

As one can see, not only does today's 12Z have 69 for 2 PM on 10/30, it now has a whopping 76 at 18Z on 10/31 vs the 52 for that same time on the 12/23 12Z run! Only on 11/1 (two days later) does it have 55 at 18Z, which is still 5 warmer than the 50 of 10/30 from the 12Z 10/23 run. Also, the low for 11/1 on today's 12Z run is only down to 39 now. Compare that to the coldest of the 10/23 12Z run of 32 one day earlier.

The 12Z 10/23 run had a morning low of 38 on 10/30, a 32 on 10/31 and a 35 on 11/1:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2019102312&text=KATL

To summarize, here are the AM lows and 2 PMs for ATL for 10/30-11/1 on today's 12Z run vs the 10/23 12Z run:

12Z GFS run....10/30 AM low....10/30 2 PM....10/31 AM low....10/31 2 PM....11/1 AM low....11/1 2 PM
10/27.........….....65...………......………..69...….........…….67..................……...76......……...…….39.......................55
10/23.................38.........…...............….50.........…...…….32...............………...52........................35..................….53

Moral of the story: go by the Euro over the GFS and one will end up closer most of the time. The FV3 cold bias won't go away at least until a modification is made. This will be a pain in the butt this winter and I'm not lookin forward to it.
Click to expand...
 
k0skinne said:
Stuff like this is why I like following this site ... GaWx, Webb, so many of you of you provide great analysis and information. Hoping and praying for a great winter season. Regardless what happens, there will be something to talk and/or gripe about!
Click to expand...
k0skinne said:
Stuff like this is why I like following this site ... GaWx, Webb, so many of you of you provide great analysis and information. Hoping and praying for a great winter season. Regardless what happens, there will be something to talk and/or gripe about!
Click to expand...
@GaWx @Webberweather53
You picked out 2 great ones to cite ... ;)
 
Picked up .8" yesterday. Was more than what it was looking like after we saw the GFS swing and miss horribly on that weekend system.
 
As others have stated, the GFS did horrible in the LR for forecasting a cold Halloween (from a few days back). So unfortunately the euro's warm rainy forecast will prevail for many in the SE.

6z GFS for ~ Trick or Treating time (this looks to go along with RAH's thinking):
jjjj.jpg
 
Icon is very bullish on the rain

icon_apcpn_seus_34.png
 
wow what a rough couple of days. we had the remmants of a post tropical cyclone come over our area saturday. i have never seen the wind blow so hard for so long of a time. it had to of been 60-70 mph for at least an hour. My county is a disaster area. Trees and power lines down everywhere. im talking about huge trees uprooted. It looks like a huge tornado came through. I got power back this morning but there are many more without power still. Im so curious what caused the high winds because there was no thunder and barely any rain so unbelievably strong winds
 
JLL1973 said:
wow what a rough couple of days. we had the remmants of a post tropical cyclone come over our area saturday. i have never seen the wind blow so hard for so long of a time. it had to of been 60-70 mph for at least an hour. My county is a disaster area. Trees and power lines down everywhere. im talking about huge trees uprooted. It looks like a huge tornado came through. I got power back this morning but there are many more without power still. Im so curious what caused the high winds because there was no thunder and barely any rain so unbelievably strong winds
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To add to this, there were a number of over turned Semi's between Jackson and Nashville right at the Tennessee river during this time. I wasn't able to observe the weather much as I was attending a Wedding in Yuma but it was blustery to say the least.
 
JLL1973 said:
wow what a rough couple of days. we had the remmants of a post tropical cyclone come over our area saturday. i have never seen the wind blow so hard for so long of a time. it had to of been 60-70 mph for at least an hour. My county is a disaster area. Trees and power lines down everywhere. im talking about huge trees uprooted. It looks like a huge tornado came through. I got power back this morning but there are many more without power still. Im so curious what caused the high winds because there was no thunder and barely any rain so unbelievably strong winds
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This is the NAM forecast from Sat 12Z at 16Z. Raging 850 MB winds. Something must have mixed them down?
1572290537100.png
 
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Snippet from GSP AFD this afternoon! Thursday might be a rough severe day for the Carolinas and Ga!FA0CCF5F-236E-4335-91F1-6424460CE8A8.png
 
EmersonGA said:
It takes January and February.
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I remember back in January of 2010 there was a trough so deep it carried a cold front all the way down to Jamaica. It happens, but my thinking is Miami only gets cool fronts when the troughs can really dig, if the pattern's right. And the SE Ridge has got to be quashed to make that happen!
 
Thursday Halloween Special perhaps the Severe weather outlook for parts of Alabama and Georgia have been ticking upward. The 3k nam has caps around 750-1200 through day at times and STP reaching 2-3 model watching today for sure
 
KyloG said:
What a way to end October, matches this thread title perfectly.

View attachment 25022
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Nice setup to end out with a bang when it comes to severe weather, timing of the line may help cape values enter the 1000-1500 range along with maxed out shear parameters but forcing is linear altho surface winds back a little bit so QLCS spinups is possible, low level hodographs are solid to, cape is skinny but enough, it’s that type of day where your gonna tell by a severe storm with its lightning production, most “storms” will likely be heavy rain showers with strong winds and low clouds due to low LCLs altho a stronger line segment or rotating storm may present lightning 5671A909-AD3C-4DE5-A50C-AEA045BB45D3.png893212E9-DED8-432F-A8F0-B4A6848F328A.png
 
And we started the month with upper 90s ha

...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Sub-freezing temperatures in the mid to upper 20s
possible in rural areas and near 30 possible in urban areas.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and northeast Texas west of I-35
and north of I-30.

* WHEN...From late Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
 
Surprise!!! The big rain totals aren’t going to happen!! That’s atleast 0-4 for the models in my area! What hot , steamy , dumps they are! This is like the next 10 days TOTAL!☹️0546482C-3818-4A80-8A0F-AA41F7D55E48.png
 
From a few days ago:5191EBF0-4CA7-4499-8BA1-7E061C20C84F.png
 
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