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Pattern Hotober

Lows look to be cooler then forecast tonight. Had a forecast low here of 62 while currently the temperature is already down to 59 and has been dropping pretty consistently the last few hours.
 
Over two inches in my backyard last night . It was awesome . The thunder and lightning were amazing !!!
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While at least we won’t be dealing with upper 90s, it looks like temps have moderated a bit from the originally forecasted highs of mid 70s and now looks like low to mid 80s. It really is annoying when you can bank on these models being 5-10 degrees warmer than what they are showing once it gets closer to verification.

To be clear, when I am referring to the temp situation, I am speaking for my area of central Alabama.
 
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Call me crazy, but I think the GFS has a good handle on this wedge across the Carolinas this weekend.


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Parker said:
While at least we won’t be dealing with upper 90s, it looks like temps have moderated a bit from the originally forecasted highs of mid 70s and now looks like low to mid 80s. It really is annoying when you can bank on these models being 5-10 degrees warmer than what they are showing once it gets closer to verification.
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This is less of a problem if you ignore the solidly cold biased GEFS and GFS (FV3) in the SE US. Go with the EPS and you’ll have a much better shot at not being disappointed although even it can verify too cold, too (though usually not as much when it does).
Regardless, it is as you stated so much of a relief compared to how the SE has been. Mid 80s vs upper 90s? No comparison!

Edit: I’m so not looking forward to the FV3 being operational this winter! Is there a way to formally put the FV3 on “ignore”? ;)
 
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Parker said:
While at least we won’t be dealing with upper 90s, it looks like temps have moderated a bit from the originally forecasted highs of mid 70s and now looks like low to mid 80s. It really is annoying when you can bank on these models being 5-10 degrees warmer than what they are showing once it gets closer to verification.

To be clear, when I am referring to the temp situation, I am speaking for my area of central Alabama.
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Easy grasshopper it’s a process
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I could be wrong but yeah, I think the Euro is about to take a bit of a L on next weekend along with the GFS. I didn't see all the runs and I had a bunch on my mind so I could be wrong here, but it had it as low as the mid 70s at some point. My last look? It's in the low to mid 80s. That's a L to me even if it was the first to start warming.

Of course it did start correcting earlier probably but that shows that you can't really forecast beyond a few days.
 
well, lets put it this way.....I will take low to mid 80's *with low humidity* over the upper 90's to low 100's and moderate to high humidity any day of the week. I am just glad the pattern is not stagnant going forward. Its staring to move for sure.
 
deltadog03 said:
well, lets put it this way.....I will take low to mid 80's *with low humidity* over the upper 90's to low 100's and moderate to high humidity any day of the week. I am just glad the pattern is not stagnant going forward. Its staring to move for sure.
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Yeah i don’t get the complaining honestly. Did people think we were gonna go from upper 90s to low 70s and hold there ? Upper 70s low 80s is much better than the last two months . Stepping down a little at a time is great with me


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Storm5 said:
Yeah i don’t get the complaining honestly. Did people think we were gonna go from upper 90s to low 70s and hold there ? Upper 70s low 80s is much better than the last two months . Stepping down a little at a time is great with me


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I hear you but we can’t seem to get a drop of rain out of the pattern change. The front for tonight and tomorrow will give you guys a good soak and shrivel up once it gets here.


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This morning was actually kind of cold with the wind. We were only at 69*F as of 11am.

Big difference from the late morning temps surging to around 90*F over the past 2 weeks.

Low clouds are breaking up now though, so that's the end of the CAD. Should make a late day run into the mid-80s.
 
SouthATLwx said:
This morning was actually kind of cold with the wind. We were only at 69*F as of 11am.

Big difference from the late morning temps surging to around 90*F over the past 2 weeks.

Low clouds are breaking up now though, so that's the end of the CAD. Should make a late day run into the mid-80s.
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Mid 80s in October is ridiculous. Isnt your avg high close to 75?
 
SD said:
Pretty sad that people are saying still way above normal is all good

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I was thinking the same thing. If the forecast goes up any more for Augusta, they will be in the 90s all week.
 
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