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Pattern Hotober

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GaWx said:
The 6Z Goofy has a freeze at Carrollton, GA, and almost down to Montgomery, AL, on 10/30. :p
Sure, GFS, whatever you say. Isn’t it too early in the day for you to be drunk? Go back to sleep, GFS, you could sure use it!
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I usually expect our first hard freeze around Halloween. It might not be that far off.
 
I'm interested in the 12z model runs today. GFS continues to show a cold Halloween, whereas the euro and Canadian are warmer. Canadian even shows a good rain maker, particularly over NC. **hoping the GFS look wins out..
 
The differences between the 6Z/12Z GFS and the 12Z/0Z Euro for 2 PM temps on 10/30 at ATL are absolutely astounding: 25 degrees with the Euro near 75 and the GFS near 50!!! It's not like this is 10+ days out as this is a mere 7 days!
Anyone want to bet on which comes closer? If I remember and can find this post, I'll bump it in a week.

I'll bet on the Euro coming closer and it being 65-70 at 2 PM on 10/30. Anyone else? Watch the broken clock Goofy get lucky this time lmao.
 
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GFS has 40's and 50's for highs Oct 30 followed by lows in the 20's and 30's, even get some overnight lows in the 40's in Phil's neck of the woods. And don't nobody come in here crushing my dreams with GFS cold bias Euro will win jargon either...... just let me enjoy the moment, please and thank you
 
GaWx said:
The difference between the 6Z/12Z GFS and the 12Z/0Z Euro for 2 PM temps on 10/30 at ATL are absolutely astounding: 25 degrees with the Euro near 75 and the GFS near 50!!! It's not like this is 10+ days out as this is a mere 7 days!
Anyone want to bet on which comes closer? If I remember and can find this post, I'll bump it in a week.

I'll bet on the Euro coming closer and it being 65-70 at 2 PM on 10/30. Anyone else? Watch the broken clock Goofy get lucky this time lmao.
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Larry see my post that we added simultaneously.... I'll let you slide this time good sir. ;)
 
metwannabe said:
GFS has 40's and 50's for highs Oct 30 followed by lows in the 20's and 30's, even get some overnight lows in the 40's in Phil's neck of the woods. And don't nobody come in here crushing my dreams with GFS cold bias Euro will win jargon either...... just let me enjoy the moment, please and thank you
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GFS would have temps in the 30s to low 40s for many during the Trick or Treating time. Would be one of the colder events I can remember if it happens.
 
Well, the cold has good timing for my trip next weekend to east TN. Per GFS, it looks like I'll experience temps similar to late December for my area. Highs in the 50s and lows around freezing. Hopefully the fall colors are good right now in that area?

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Will Rossman said:
Well, the cold has good timing for my trip next weekend to east TN. Per GFS, it looks like I'll experience temps similar to late December for my area. Highs in the 50s and lows around freezing. Hopefully the fall colors are good right now in that area?

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They are beautiful right now ...
 
GaWx said:
The differences between the 6Z/12Z GFS and the 12Z/0Z Euro for 2 PM temps on 10/30 at ATL are absolutely astounding: 25 degrees with the Euro near 75 and the GFS near 50!!! It's not like this is 10+ days out as this is a mere 7 days!
Anyone want to bet on which comes closer? If I remember and can find this post, I'll bump it in a week.

I'll bet on the Euro coming closer and it being 65-70 at 2 PM on 10/30. Anyone else? Watch the broken clock Goofy get lucky this time lmao.
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Here's a followup to the amazing model differences at KATL for 18Z on 10/30: even the ensemble means have about 18 degrees diff. with 6Z/12Z GEFS at ~55 and the 12Z/0Z EPS at ~73. Will GEFS score an upset win? Regardless, I think the more important thing to note is how far apart are the 2 best ensembles!
 
Canadian still warm with a rainy look for Halloween. As Larry stated, big differences for it being under 10 days. Really the differences are apparent by day 5.
One thing to note; the GFS seems to be more consistent (from previous runs) in how it depicts the pattern. The Canadian is still warm but different on how it gets there.
 
GaWx said:
The differences between the 6Z/12Z GFS and the 12Z/0Z Euro for 2 PM temps on 10/30 at ATL are absolutely astounding: 25 degrees with the Euro near 75 and the GFS near 50!!! It's not like this is 10+ days out as this is a mere 7 days!
Anyone want to bet on which comes closer? If I remember and can find this post, I'll bump it in a week.

I'll bet on the Euro coming closer and it being 65-70 at 2 PM on 10/30. Anyone else? Watch the broken clock Goofy get lucky this time lmao.
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Followup: 12Z Euro almost as warm as its prior run at ATL with ~73 at 2 PM on 10/30 vs the ~50 on the 6Z/12Z GFS. The battle lines are drawn. Who will win? Price is Right rules are not in effect to determine the winner.
 
GaWx said:
Followup: 12Z Euro almost as warm as its prior run at ATL with ~73 at 2 PM on 10/30 vs the ~50 on the 6Z/12Z GFS. The battle lines are drawn. Who will win? Price is Right rules are not in effect to determine the winner.
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I forgot to mention the less accurate CMC: it (0Z and 12Z) agrees with the Euro with ~74 at ATL at 2 PM on 10/30 fwiw.
So, we have the 6Z/12Z GFS at ~50 and the 0Z/12Z Euro/CMC ~73-75.
 
I agree it’s just time. No model war or who is right or wrong.
BirdManDoomW said:
GFS has snow 1-3” for WV, 1” western NC/TN line and wind whipped snow showers for Boone. CMC is heavy rain. EURO is well above normal temps followed by cold in early November. Coin toss as of right now but I would say snow is possible given all the moving parts it’s likely just a timing question.
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NCSNOW said:
Difference in Euro and GFS is just a timing issue. Euro gets there about 24 to 36 latter.

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It is largely timing, but timing is not a trivial issue and it is a recurring one. Slower timing leads to not just a delay but also allows for more modification of the cold airmass once it finally arrives. At ATL for example, once the cold comes in on the Euro it never gets quite as cold (lowest upper 30s on one day vs mid 30s several days on the GFS).
 
Lol! The gfs has me with 3-4” of rain a day or two ago for this weekend, now has .25 total! Whoever’s in the bullseye today, shouldn’t be too excited about that! Only brings heartache and pain
 
Is a thread going to be made for this possible tropical low? And severe weather/rain Screenshot_20191023-144220_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Tarheel1 said:
Lol! The gfs has me with 3-4” of rain a day or two ago for this weekend, now has .25 total! Whoever’s in the bullseye today, shouldn’t be too excited about that! Only brings heartache and pain
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Plenty of rain to go around in the SE over the next week.

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