Yeah. It's fun to say I'd trade this for that, like I'd rather get the heat out of the way now so it can be cold later. But weather doesn't work that way, unfortunately.
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Pattern Hotober
- Thread starter NorthDFWwx
- Start date
12z euro is much more progressive vs previous runs with the trough at the end of the month . Instead of dumping in the west it’s centered right over the Ohio valley . Waiting to see if the EPS abandons the western trough idea
12z vs 00z
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12z vs 00z
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Euro and GFS both have a nice cold front on the way near Halloween
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So, it shouldn't mean the winter is going to be warm just because October and November are, too.
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Well ok then ....
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Now that's what we like to seeWell ok then ....
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It’s definitely an improvement vs previous runs.will be interesting to see if it keeps up
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BHS1975
Member
SBCAPE looks decent tomorrow around peak heating. This one may sneak up on us in Wake county.
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dsaur
Member
It's sure nice seeing the map fronts with a good gulf tap. Let's me get in on the action like last year. For probably ten years prior, they'd all be tapped out and fizzle down near me...until last winter when the pattern changed. I hope this is early signs of more of that. Keep that tap all the way across, with some lows involved when the cold air comes to visit.12z euro is much more progressive vs previous runs with the trough at the end of the month . Instead of dumping in the west it’s centered right over the Ohio valley . Waiting to see if the EPS abandons the western trough idea
12z vs 00z
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70/61 and has been cloudy all day. Feels nice
12z Runs06z thoughts: Good news, the high continued the trend of being more suppressed, we get a stronger cold push. Bad news, at H5 the -PNA (Surprisingly helps this setup) the low out west doesn't dig as negatively and misses a ULL crucial for ramping up the surface low, we still get an interesting bowling ball like low that knocks the HP in the east (Euro doesn't separate the SS and NS so it ends up with 1 big trough in the west), Luckily that has been consistent since 18z yesterday. Nevertheless, the system is weaker and doesn't phase with the northern stream, *Pay attention to the SW, Low is in Texas at 00z, 06 is strung out somewhere in CA very flat*
06z
00z
All in all a better run. I don't know why I'm even analyzing this, maybe It's just to spice things up. It wouldn't take much to make this run more interesting. 12z will be worth watching. We have an Increasing cold air source, however the low is non-existent this run. This is all taking Verbatim, not a single GEFS, (does have an interesting pattern or track, however not cold enough for frozen precip) or EPS member gives this a chance and most likely is the FV3 on steroids, however just thinking out loud. I will make note that there is a signal at least on the FV3 for the past few runs for an interesting pattern going ahead into the first week of November.
Bottom line: Stronger Cold air source, Worse low-pressure development.
At least we have consistency
GFS
1.Good news, Much stronger High. This is important because It will keep any LP suppressed and enough cold air to the surface.
2. Good news, the GFS has been trending further south and stronger with the monster low at H5. The importance of this is to even further cool the UL temps.
3. Bad news. The main focus of whether or not there is is a good ULL is mainly focused on an Aleutian low. The further south it gets and, the faster the high sticks around. We have been trending farther north with the Aleutian low (Bad thing). Just as a visual, this is a comparison from 18z which had the low dig the most, compared to the previous run
Euro: Digs a bit more, however more positive so the 2 lows don't have time to separate so the systems don't have much time to sperate. Leading to a northern high and a system well north of us. I will say that I'm not pulling my eggs in one basket with the Euro. As bad as the FV3 is, the euro has been caving to it most recently.
GEFS
I will admit this data is not horrible, the trough in the SW is a bit weaker. Much more active run.
12z
06z
EPS: Stronger +PNA and much farther south of a low. As many have posted, much better look. Still no snow, however looking better for cold rain.
CMC (The crazy uncle)
CMC pops a1039 MB high and Barney shows its return. But guess what! The Southeast Ridge blocks some of the cold air.
Right now I'm being optimistic. Maybe, just maybe we could see some cold rain or a bit of ice in Wilkesboro so that Birdman will migrate to the Keys
Golf7575
Member
12z Runs
GFS
1.Good news, Much stronger High. This is important because It will keep any LP suppressed and enough cold air to the surface.
2. Good news, the GFS has been trending further south and stronger with the monster low at H5. The importance of this is to even further cool the UL temps.
3. Bad news. The main focus of whether or not there is is a good ULL is mainly focused on an Aleutian low. The further south it gets and, the faster the high sticks around. We have been trending farther north with the Aleutian low (Bad thing). Just as a visual, this is a comparison from 18z which had the low dig the most, compared to the previous runView attachment 24763
View attachment 24764
Euro: Digs a bit more, however more positive so the 2 lows don't have time to separate so the systems don't have much time to sperate. Leading to a northern high and a system well north of us. I will say that I'm not pulling my eggs in one basket with the Euro. As bad as the FV3 is, the euro has been caving to it most recently.
GEFS
I will admit this data is not horrible, the trough in the SW is a bit weaker. Much more active run.
12z
06z
EPS: Stronger +PNA and much farther south of a low. As many have posted, much better look. Still no snow, however looking better for cold rain.
CMC (The crazy uncle)
CMC pops a1039 MB high and Barney shows its return. But guess what! The Southeast Ridge blocks some of the cold air.
Right now I'm being optimistic. Maybe, just maybe we could see some cold rain or a bit of ice in Wilkesboro so that Birdman will migrate to the Keys
Its too early for winter weather Ollie imo. Be patient young man. A favorable pattern is all we can ask for, especially during winter. As you know, alot of factors involved.
Fountainguy97
Member
12z Runs
GFS
1.Good news, Much stronger High. This is important because It will keep any LP suppressed and enough cold air to the surface.
2. Good news, the GFS has been trending further south and stronger with the monster low at H5. The importance of this is to even further cool the UL temps.
3. Bad news. The main focus of whether or not there is is a good ULL is mainly focused on an Aleutian low. The further south it gets and, the faster the high sticks around. We have been trending farther north with the Aleutian low (Bad thing). Just as a visual, this is a comparison from 18z which had the low dig the most, compared to the previous runView attachment 24763
View attachment 24764
Euro: Digs a bit more, however more positive so the 2 lows don't have time to separate so the systems don't have much time to sperate. Leading to a northern high and a system well north of us. I will say that I'm not pulling my eggs in one basket with the Euro. As bad as the FV3 is, the euro has been caving to it most recently.
GEFS
I will admit this data is not horrible, the trough in the SW is a bit weaker. Much more active run.
12z
06z
EPS: Stronger +PNA and much farther south of a low. As many have posted, much better look. Still no snow, however looking better for cold rain.
CMC (The crazy uncle)
CMC pops a1039 MB high and Barney shows its return. But guess what! The Southeast Ridge blocks some of the cold air.
Right now I'm being optimistic. Maybe, just maybe we could see some cold rain or a bit of ice in Wilkesboro so that Birdman will migrate to the Keys
honestly not a bad look. Pattern and cold could support some wintry weather. Would of course have to be a perfect setup but when is it ever any different?
It's likely too early for frozen precip. But it's probably not too early for some cold rain.
I love the bottom picture! That’s how we score, all day everyday in winter!?12z Runs
GFS
1.Good news, Much stronger High. This is important because It will keep any LP suppressed and enough cold air to the surface.
2. Good news, the GFS has been trending further south and stronger with the monster low at H5. The importance of this is to even further cool the UL temps.
3. Bad news. The main focus of whether or not there is is a good ULL is mainly focused on an Aleutian low. The further south it gets and, the faster the high sticks around. We have been trending farther north with the Aleutian low (Bad thing). Just as a visual, this is a comparison from 18z which had the low dig the most, compared to the previous runView attachment 24763
View attachment 24764
Euro: Digs a bit more, however more positive so the 2 lows don't have time to separate so the systems don't have much time to sperate. Leading to a northern high and a system well north of us. I will say that I'm not pulling my eggs in one basket with the Euro. As bad as the FV3 is, the euro has been caving to it most recently.
GEFS
I will admit this data is not horrible, the trough in the SW is a bit weaker. Much more active run.
12z
06z
EPS: Stronger +PNA and much farther south of a low. As many have posted, much better look. Still no snow, however looking better for cold rain.
CMC (The crazy uncle)
CMC pops a1039 MB high and Barney shows its return. But guess what! The Southeast Ridge blocks some of the cold air.
Right now I'm being optimistic. Maybe, just maybe we could see some cold rain or a bit of ice in Wilkesboro so that Birdman will migrate to the Keys
Fountainguy97
Member
Depends on the area. Certainly not too early for Western NC. They had half an inch of ZR and sleet November 14th just last year.
and plenty of times in the past it’s snowed end of October and beginning of November.
for areas outside mountains yeah probably too early unless we had a perfect setup and much below normal temps.
CMC is absolutely frigid in the midwest and great plains for Halloween morning with a strong cold push coming in
