TORNADO VIDEO
Jesus Mary and Joseph ?
TORNADO VIDEO
Looks like one of the 30 storms we couldn’t time right back in JanuaryThis looks interesting?
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Wave looks more surpressed through hr 246 than 18zView attachment 24742
Tornado Warning in Texas about 20 miles north of Dallas.View attachment 24747
...Lower MS and OH Valleys...central Gulf Coast...
An extensive line of thunderstorms will be ongoing along the cold
front early Monday morning, from IL to east TX. Damaging winds or a
brief tornado will be possible with these linear storms, owing to
sufficient CAPE in place and effective SRH over 300 m2/s2. As the
moist plume narrows to the north, the greatest threat for the rest
of the day will be over LA and MS where upper 60s to low 70s F
dewpoints will maintain MLCAPE of at least 500 J/kg, despite
relatively warm midlevel temperatures and limited heating. Still,
veering winds with height with effective SRH around 200 m2/s2 may
support a supercell with a brief tornado or damaging wind gust.
Later in the day and through the evening, southerly surface winds
will bring low to mid 70s F dewpoints northward across southern AL
and the FL Panhandle. This may support a few strong storms as the
front continues east, beneath 50 to 60 kt mid to upper flow.
...Parts of southern into middle Atlantic Seaboard...
Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing at 12Z Tuesday, ahead
of the cold front, in the presence of at least modestly sheared and
strong southwesterly deep-layer mean flow, from the lee of the
southern Appalachians through northern Florida.
Coupled with the development of the frontal wave/cyclone, models
indicate an influx of seasonably moist air (including surface dew
points near 70F) across the Carolina coastal plain into the piedmont
by early afternoon. Although lower/mid tropospheric lapse rates may
not be particularly steep, it appears that this still may contribute
to mixed-layer CAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. In the presence of south to
southwesterly wind fields including 30-40+ kt around 850 mb, and
50-60+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer, it appears that the environment
could become conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development.
Mid/upper support for large-scale ascent across the Carolinas could
be glancing, but lift associated with lower/mid tropospheric warm
advection may be conducive to the initiation of discrete
thunderstorms by midday, including a few supercell structures, with
potential for at least some upscale growth across the North Carolina
coastal plain through Tuesday afternoon. This may be accompanied by
the risk for a couple of tornadoes, in additional to potentially
damaging wind gusts.
06z thoughts: Good news, the high continued the trend of being more suppressed, we get a stronger cold push. Bad news, at H5 the -PNA (Surprisingly helps this setup) the low out west doesn't dig as negatively and misses an ULL crucial for ramping up the surface low, we still get an interesting bowling ball like low that knocks the HP in the east (Euro doesn't separate the SS and NS so it ends up with 1 big trough in the west), Luckily that has been consistent since 18z yesterday. Nevertheless the system is weaker and doesn't phase with the northern stream, *Pay attention to the SW, Low is in Texas at 00z, 06 is strung out somewhere in CA very flat*Still ended up a dud, however, still very close. Interesting trends over the past day. Wonder if 06z will continue the trend?
View attachment 24743
Trending weaker and weaker! 12z GFS says weak, scattered showers here, at best tomorrow! Friday and Saturday event looking huge!!!!
If it would bring me 2-3” of rain, I’d take one!Guess you should feel lucky to not get any tornadoes.
If it would bring me 2-3” of rain, I’d take one!
Wait, what??? I would not take a tornado in trade for 3 feet of snow, much less a soaking rain!If it would bring me 2-3” of rain, I’d take one!
Why are folks worried about warm weather so much in October and November? I'd rather it be warm now and then transition to cold in December and set the stage for January and February than for it to be cold now.
If I have learned anything the past few years, is that there is no "transitions" or "stage setting" anymore. It's been hot the last couple Octobers and Novembers, and guess what... Its still a very warm winter overall. I don't think it has nearly as much correlation as folks want to believe.Why are folks worried about warm weather so much in October and November? I'd rather it be warm now and then transition to cold in December and set the stage for January and February than for it to be cold now.