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Pattern Hotober

Webberweather53 said:
:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Oh boy, the SE Ridge is trending even stronger near the end of October. At least our averages are coming down.

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Yeah the eps mean is low 70s during the SE ridge and is down to the low 60s by the end of the run.

You have to think that SE ridge is a temporary feature but knowing our luck its not

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 
71 in Wilson 62 in RDU! Big difference . Looks like mid 60s out east where I’m at . Dews match the temps as well so pretty humid !

For places in eastern NC and the eastern piedmont that were never in any moderate drought just more on the low end this rain may be enough to pull us out . Gl to everyone in western NC sc and north ga though .
 
Webberweather53 said:
:rolleyes::rolleyes:

Oh boy, the SE Ridge is trending even stronger near the end of October. At least our averages are coming down.

View attachment 24707
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Well, hopefully this doesn't become a dominant pattern over the winter. Oh wait, it will be I'm sure. Maybe if it stays weak enough we can get some good rain.
 
I guess we expected this despite what the models showed earlier in the week. I think by mid-end of November imo, that will shape our winter pattern, but after last winter, i am not sure
 
Golf7575 said:
I guess we expected this despite what the models showed earlier in the week. I think by mid-end of November imo, that will shape our winter pattern, but after last winter, i am not sure
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I'm right with you; but I still wouldn't mind seeing the pattern relax right now and then turn cold ~ Thanksgiving into the first part of December. I've seen good winters after a pattern setup like this and of course bad winters. But, I've seen many more bad winters after a late October / early November cold pattern. **but honestly who knows...
 
Thru Nov 2. GFS has me with about 4-10” of rain! Obviously an inferior model! And has 2-4” from tomorrow-next Saturday! Can’t get maps to post!
 
Lol nam being the NAM, do need to watch the threat of some severe thunderstorms with this next system in the SE, especially near the gulf coast FE0CF0C4-F42D-45A6-B7CD-0A1A064803F9.png
 
Through next Monday, looks good.

gfs_apcpn_seus_30.png
 
WXinCanton said:
Through next Monday, looks good.

gfs_apcpn_seus_30.png
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Through the end of the run, looks even more amazing. But so did yesterday, until it didn’t! Monday night system already looking anemic outside the mountains.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Through the end of the run, looks even more amazing. But so did yesterday, until it didn’t! Monday night system already looking anemic outside the mountains.
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My driveway was flooded when I got home from NE Georgia last night. If you said it rained 5” I would believe it
 
GFS broke! 95% of this is Fri-Sunday, Mon night Tuesday event here looks like .2 at best here! ?5122F769-DFC5-4B29-8E25-6445505137A1.png
 
Crazy how the gfs been very consistent with a trough in the east its entirely run. As Webb mention, ashame we are wasting this great pattern in November. Pattern looks ripe for something end of month into November
 
accu35 said:
Crazy how the gfs been very consistent with a trough in the east its entirely run. As Webb mention, ashame we are wasting this great pattern in November. Pattern looks ripe for something end of month into November
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It won't verify, don't worry. It's the GFS remember? Always shows us what we want, takes our money and runs. It rarely delivers.
 
FOR TOMORROW'S SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM NWS BMX


.LONG TERM...
/UPDATED AT 0339 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019/
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 12Z MONDAY AS A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS. THERE IS VERY POOR MODEL AGREEMENT
REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO ALABAMA.
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BASE OF THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. MODELS CANNOT AGREE ON EXACTLY
HOW MUCH FOCUS WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH AND
TOWARD THE INCREASINGLY INFLUENTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE.
THIS COMPLICATED SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN A MESSY SITUATION WITH A
NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT FOR NOW THE MARGINAL RISK
WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF BEING
AFFECTED BY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
WHICH COULD YIELD SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
THE NON-ZERO SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF OUR AREA BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE
INFLUENCES AND CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION. THE TIMING OF THE THREAT HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED FASTER BASED ON HI-RES GUIDANCE, ARRIVING AROUND
NOON IN THE NORTHWEST AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT IN THE SOUTHEAST.

DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY NIGHT TO OUR WEST, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

87/GRANTHAM
 
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