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Observations Fright Night Halloween Week Severe Obs

Fountainguy97 said:
Ok this is getting concerning.

sounding around Raleigh with discreet cells popping out in front of main line. Low topped supercells don’t take much to get fired up.
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Our severe events tend to “sneak up” on us just like this.

cold front will bring a 15-20 temp change boundary that can focus this line into a broken line of rotating storms. Good cape and moderate shear.... recipe for a potentially very active day.

will not be surprised to see enhanced risk increased in size. Outside shot moderate gets popped if they are aggressive IMO atmosphere could support that level of event.

I’d be on red alert tmrw in Central-Eastern NC. Pretty classic setup for tornadoes for that area.View attachment 25148
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What time does it show it coming through Wake?
 
That’s a lot of cape and shear focused on Wake Co.

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SD said:
Really stout setup for a widespread wind damage event across the area with what is likely to be a single band of convection or 2 lines one south one north that may merge in time. Setup also looks fairly ripe to spin up a few tornadoes along bands. Have a slight bit of concern that a few cells may not be completely congealed into the main line that could cause some issues.

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The widespread wind damage looks to be a legit threat... with the line of storms and immediately behind the front. I know models always overdo winds but every single model showing gust over 40, so even if a location doesn't get a severe warned storm winds still look potentially problematic. Of course the HRRR continues to try to paint an eerie picture, not sure about the PDS Tor but those winds are ripping just off the surface and likelihood of a few rotating cells certainly increasing

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WRAL keeps changing the timing of when the storms should come through here. Last night they said not until 10 pm, and today they are saying 8 pm.
 
Brick Tamland said:
WRAL keeps changing the timing of when the storms should come through here. Last night they said not until 10 pm, and today they are saying 8 pm.
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The models have sped up the timing of the front slightly, honestly your talking 2 hours and that's well within a reasonable expectation of a forecast imo. Shoot any time after 4 should be on the lookout for any possible development.
 
It looks like this line will be a very fast moving line. Here in upstate sc it hits around probably 2pm and the tornado threat is pretty much zero by 3pm. Don’t blink you might miss it


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metwannabe said:
The models have sped up the timing of the front slightly, honestly your talking 2 hours and that's well within a reasonable expectation of a forecast imo. Shoot any time after 4 should be on the lookout for any possible development.
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I just want to be able to get the trick-or-treating in before the storms come through.
 
Watch out NC foothills, warnings are out for extreme northern SC in a tornado breeding zone as discussed yesterday.
 
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Interesting storm south-west of Hickory NC I may intercept.
 
HrrrHHHRRRRRRRrr has been very consistent in bringing the line through Wake between 7 and 8. The new 13z run has some supercellular activity ahead of the main line. That looks to be problematic, if it turns out to actually develop. 12z NAM is an hour or two slower with the line and has virtually no pre-squall activity. Either way, going to be rough evening for many trick or treaters.
 
Rain Cold said:
HrrrHHHRRRRRRRrr has been very consistent in bringing the line through Wake between 7 and 8. The new 13z run has some supercellular activity ahead of the main line. That looks to be problematic, if it turns out to actually develop. 12z NAM is an hour or two slower with the line and has virtually no pre-squall activity. Either way, going to be rough evening for many trick or treaters.
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Yeah, it's going to be close. As WRAL states, go trick or treating early and don't linger past 8pm.
Something else that will be interesting (in a geek way) is how fast the cold air comes in. For many tomorrows high will occur tonight at mid-night (especially for central NC). Tomorrows afternoon high temps may not get out of the mid 50s. If we can drop to that or below (as many models show) that will be the official high. So in official stats, we could see RDU with a high of 55 whereas Rocky Mount is 73.
 
Rain Cold said:
HrrrHHHRRRRRRRrr has been very consistent in bringing the line through Wake between 7 and 8. The new 13z run has some supercellular activity ahead of the main line. That looks to be problematic, if it turns out to actually develop. 12z NAM is an hour or two slower with the line and has virtually no pre-squall activity. Either way, going to be rough evening for many trick or treaters.
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Yes. NWS Ral discussion says 5-7 here in the Triad and 7-8 for the Triangle. As Poimen mentioned, wet soils across the region are going to be problematic.
 
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Rain Cold said:
HrrrHHHRRRRRRRrr has been very consistent in bringing the line through Wake between 7 and 8. The new 13z run has some supercellular activity ahead of the main line. That looks to be problematic, if it turns out to actually develop. 12z NAM is an hour or two slower with the line and has virtually no pre-squall activity. Either way, going to be rough evening for many trick or treaters.
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I really don't like your attitude towards the HRRR young man.... with that said, sun trying to pop out here, very muggy and things do appear to be shaping up for an interesting if not scary (pun intended) night.
 
Hope we (those in central NC) can land a few of those renegade cells ahead of the main line, bc by the time that squall line gets here, I bet it isn't five miles wide. Still need the rain badly here.
 
Very violent feel outside with wind and power blinking despite little to nothing on radar. It doesn’t usually feel like this in late October.
 
Ruh roh, sun is breaking out here! Destabilizing to the max! Luckily trick or treat looking clear now, storms, if they form, will be out of my area by 5
 
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