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Observations Fright Night Halloween Week Severe Obs

WPC may be waiting to upgrade to Moderate Risk to see how much falls tomorrow. Looks wet western Wilkes, Boone, etc. Up to 2” through 0z Thurs. Well before any thunderstorms/line.
 
From a flash drought to seeing over 10” during October 2019. The pink area I’m watching to overperform a day in advance. 3-6” possible once it’s done Thursday. On top of 4”+ just last week in places like Sparta, NC, monthly totals will exceed 10”. Also can’t forget other rain episodes including the tropical storm. B155C751-85BF-4C60-96E0-862F83841F72.jpeg
 
It’s also been raining in spots from Wilkes into the Virginia foothills today despite no radar returns.
 
NWS Blacksburg says 4”+ poss. from Boone NC into VA in their AFD.
 
Decent qlcs setup around here much better than the 2 earlier this month.
Wouldn't be supposed to see a few spin ups along the way either especially in the western and central Piedmont late in the afternoon to early evening.
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Profiles loook quite soggy, maybe some drying if the NAM is right, but moist profiles and skinny cape will aid in storms that lack lightning, like I said before if you see a storm producing lightning in this setup, it’s likely rotating, or has a stronger updraft which poses a more localized severe weather risk, one thing I always notice about fall setups
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Profiles loook quite soggy, maybe some drying if the NAM is right, but moist profiles and skinny cape will aid in storms that lack lightning, like I said before if you see a storm producing lightning in this setup, it’s likely rotating, or has a stronger updraft which poses a more localized severe weather risk, one thing I always notice about fall setups
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So basically, this will be a similar setup to the last two cold fronts? Heavy rain with hardly any lightning?
 
Any chance this is upgraded to a enhanced risk tomorrow? When that warm front lifts north conditions seem fairly ripe for severe weather


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snowcool776 said:
So basically, this will be a similar setup to the last two cold fronts? Heavy rain with hardly any lightning?
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Better chance for lightning since there will be more CAPE, but lightning will likely be confined to stronger updrafts
 
This is how you get your typical 58-64 degree saturated tornado in the NC foothills per the NAM. Recent years have featured hits in Wilkes, Hickory and even Ashe County. Storms (with lightning initially) develop near the SC border denoted in the purple box (Hubert’s Box to get foothill tornadoes in an otherwise cool rainy day). These track north-East with little to no advancement East out into the Piedmont. In fact, drifts to the north can cause unusual hits along mountain ridges (eastern Ashe County) and (Hays/Stone MTN Wilkes County) as seen recently. I have shown this in the narrow black zone. To the East I can see the surge of moisture off the Atlantic bringing in clouds and light rains all the way to the escarpment (if you want a tornado you need to track it in from the south-west it likely won’t form overhead of you).790637ED-EEDD-4EC7-A86F-3FFDAC655CAB.jpeg
 
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Snow wise, with so many people going to be in Boone I would recommend staying the night to see it given the late start to the game. Wind snow odds should be near 50% with little to no travel issues. I recommend Beach MTN for snowflakes. Rime ice also won’t be too far away in the morning if no changeover occurs.11649643-C635-42E1-9FC0-138F6758ABEE.jpeg
 
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Flash Flood Watches will be evaluated once today’s totals are in for western NC and VA per NWS Blacksburg.
 
SPC:
Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal
supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low.
However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the
late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent
deep convection.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
SPC:
Current HREF guidance suggests the probability of any pre-frontal
supercells across central VA and the central Carolinas is low.
However, the environmental conditions ahead of the front during the
late afternoon support supercell development with any persistent
deep convection.
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I doubt they issue a enhanced risk for the i77 corridor into the foothills. But that’s where the deep convection is likely but it’s more of a micro climate setup.
 
If any cell pops up ahead of the main line that’s where you’d get a isolated tornado. While the main line could produce a very brief spin up. The lines main threat likely strong wind and heavy rain.


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This supercell in southwest alabama has been broadly rotating.Screenshot_20191030-084816_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20191030-084820_RadarScope.jpg
 
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