less moisture down your way will likely mean less supercells if heavy convection focuses over the foothills of NC then shifts to Virginia. I could see this event favoring north of NC but it’s a wait and see.
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Observations Fright Night Halloween Week Severe Obs
- Thread starter BirdManDoomW
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SPC watching those storms coming out of Alabama into west Georgia.
I believe a moderate risk upgrade is needed after seeing today’s leafs cluttering the drains. Anyone else in NC/SC noticing waterways quickly filling up because of this? Bad timing going from peak color to massive rains. Lots of leaves down even in areas below 2,500ft.
? TORNADO WARNING near Pensacola Florida ?
Lots of water on the roadways here in Spartanburg with some flooded roads with moderate rain still coming down
Very wet drive home from school
Yeah I drive I-26 about 15 miles and 5 miles backroads to get home and today was interesting coming from school and the heavy rains didn’t make it any better
Lol the 32km NAM has terrible quality, and the 12km shows that line, it’s gonna likely be a line, saw wind damage from a similar setup in a recent February if I’m not mistaken, intense jet streak from the SW and lots of moisture aloft will drag down winds easily
You know if any NAM is showing snow, it’s the best model there is.
Also, I’ve seen Euro wind forecasts posted in the 30-50 MPH gust range outside the mountains for tomorrow, and we know that the Euro always overdoes wind forecast!
Euro sucks lol
KK has spoken! The threat is to our East! Look out CLT! Her costume is going to be a goober!
Fountainguy97
Member
Ok this is getting concerning.
sounding around Raleigh with discreet cells popping out in front of main line. Low topped supercells don’t take much to get fired up.
Our severe events tend to “sneak up” on us just like this.
cold front will bring a 15-20 temp change boundary that can focus this line into a broken line of rotating storms. Good cape and moderate shear.... recipe for a potentially very active day.
will not be surprised to see enhanced risk increased in size. Outside shot moderate gets popped if they are aggressive IMO atmosphere could support that level of event.
I’d be on red alert tmrw in Central-Eastern NC. Pretty classic setup for tornadoes for that area.
sounding around Raleigh with discreet cells popping out in front of main line. Low topped supercells don’t take much to get fired up.
Our severe events tend to “sneak up” on us just like this.
cold front will bring a 15-20 temp change boundary that can focus this line into a broken line of rotating storms. Good cape and moderate shear.... recipe for a potentially very active day.
will not be surprised to see enhanced risk increased in size. Outside shot moderate gets popped if they are aggressive IMO atmosphere could support that level of event.
I’d be on red alert tmrw in Central-Eastern NC. Pretty classic setup for tornadoes for that area.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Looking nasty on the 12k NAM in the morning tomorrow:
At 20z:
At 20z:
Jessy89
Member
I almost wonder could there be two rounds. Round 1 between 9am-12noon and round 2 being the with the main squall line after 2pm. The models have been showing a morning and evening risk.
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BHS1975
Member
Whoa not good for Wake Co.
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Really stout setup for a widespread wind damage event across the area with what is likely to be a single band of convection or 2 lines one south one north that may merge in time. Setup also looks fairly ripe to spin up a few tornadoes along bands. Have a slight bit of concern that a few cells may not be completely congealed into the main line that could cause some issues.
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0z 3k NAM has a supercell (likely rotating) that forms just north of Spartanburg, SC that tracks all through western NC into Virginia. It forms out ahead of the line after a lull. It’s a long tracked storm that hits Hickory, Lenoir, eastern Wilkes County then Stuart VA.
02z HRRR and 18zRGEM also show something very similar. Seems like extreme northern SC is a breeding zone for a supercell that tracks north-east into the NC foothills. Possible long track tornado. Well in advance of any convective lines.
Good news is more populated areas of Charlotte to Statesville kind of misses out if this occurs as planned.