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Observations Fright Night Halloween Week Severe Obs

BirdManDoomW said:
Don’t think it’s been done before but I’m going to release a rare early advance tornado watch with a few tornado warnings around 10pm tonight to see how close they come to verifying based on guidance. I know the Moore Oklahoma tornado was warned before it even developed. Let’s see if any skill can be used to determine this 12+ hours out for our area. Would a longer tornado watch notice benefit the public if the NWS did this? Or do you prefer shorter notices the day of? This is experimental.
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There was a guy who did that and he was shunned from the community. Even the NWS had to put a statement out that he is in no way affiliated with them. His products were made to mimick official forecasts though.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Yea mine will be with paint and read “This is a soft Tornado Warning for...”. I wish the government would start, I mean you gotta start somewhere even if it’s 5% skill. I’ll put mine in whammy thread only
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Lead times are usually pretty good with Watches. If you're going to go ahead and issue warnings for now, then different story. Zero skill in that. Zero.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Yea mine will be with paint and read “This is a soft Tornado Warning for...”. I wish the government would start, I mean you gotta start somewhere even if it’s 5% skill. I’ll put mine in whammy thread only
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My advice: Don't play something you aren't. It only will result in catastrophe.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Yea mine will be with paint and read “This is a soft Tornado Warning for...”. I wish the government would start, I mean you gotta start somewhere even if it’s 5% skill. I’ll put mine in whammy thread only
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This is reckless, if even one of your "soft warnings" gets out and is misunderstood by an individual (you know not everyone follows, understands, lives weather like we do.... we're a small percentage), but if that happens and then it's a fail. Guess what, the next time a real warning is issued they may not listen. It's stupid and the idea that NWS should do something such as that is even more stupid. Come on birdman
 
true maybe just a watch. I just find it crazy a tornado warming was issued with not a cloud in the sky in Moore or nearby.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I could code name it potato dumpling Warning in banter for research purposes that would not receive shares.
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Here we go, ENH risk for the area!
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Due to the upgrade of a sig. event I won’t be issuing any watch or warning tonight.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I could code name it potato dumpling Warning in banter for research purposes that would not receive shares.
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Snap out of it man. You started a good thread with legit threat now keep it legit.
 
snowcool776 said:
Dude, I just did that 1 second above you.
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He just likes to post it so he can say Level this or that instead of the official terminology. Either way, the dynamics certainly support it. Could see an expansion, if we get breaka in the clouds.
 
Rain Cold said:
He just likes to post it so he can say Level this or that instead of the official terminology. Either way, the dynamics certainly support it. Could see an expansion, if we get breaka in the clouds.
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Ok...
 
Rain Cold said:
He just likes to post it so he can say Level this or that instead of the official terminology. Either way, the dynamics certainly support it. Could see an expansion, if we get breaka in the clouds.
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I didn't see it posted before I did. Guess we were posting the map at the the same time.

But the official terminology is faulty.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I didn't see it posted before I did. Guess we were posting the map at the the same time.

But the official terminology is faulty.
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They should have stayed with Slight, Moderate, High. That's easier for the general public to remember and follow. An arbitrary number is as useless as Enhanced vs. Moderate. If you use the number system, you have to say Level 2 of 5. But that still doesn't really give great context because there are so many levels. What how much more likely is severe weather at Level 3 than level 2? Should have just kept slgt, mod, hi.
 
WRAL saying the storms shouldn't start around here until after 8 pm, and it should be okay for trick-or-treating tomorrow night. I hope they are right.

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Rain Cold said:
They should have stayed with Slight, Moderate, High. That's easier for the general public to remember and follow. An arbitrary number is as useless as Enhanced vs. Moderate. If you use the number system, you have to say Level 2 of 5. But that still doesn't really give great context because there are so many levels. What how much more likely is severe weather at Level 3 than level 2? Should have just kept slgt, mod, hi.
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Non of the 12z NAMs, look impressive at all for severe. Just boring Fropa
 
Brick Tamland said:
Can we get this thread pinned?
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less moisture down your way will likely mean less supercells if heavy convection focuses over the foothills of NC then shifts to Virginia. I could see this event favoring north of NC but it’s a wait and see.
 
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I believe a moderate risk upgrade is needed after seeing today’s leafs cluttering the drains. Anyone else in NC/SC noticing waterways quickly filling up because of this? Bad timing going from peak color to massive rains. Lots of leaves down even in areas below 2,500ft.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
I believe a moderate risk upgrade is needed after seeing today’s leafs cluttering the drains. Anyone else in NC/SC noticing waterways quickly filling up because of this? Bad timing going from peak color to massive rains. Lots of leaves down even in areas below 2,500ft.
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Lots of water on the roadways here in Spartanburg with some flooded roads with moderate rain still coming down
 
Tarheel1 said:
And your area On 18z.
YawnView attachment 25137View attachment 25138
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Lol the 32km NAM has terrible quality, and the 12km shows that line, it’s gonna likely be a line, saw wind damage from a similar setup in a recent February if I’m not mistaken, intense jet streak from the SW and lots of moisture aloft will drag down winds easily
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol the 32km NAM has terrible quality, and the 12km shows that line, it’s gonna likely be a line, saw wind damage from a similar setup in a recent February if I’m not mistaken, intense jet streak from the SW and lots of moisture aloft will drag down winds easily
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You know if any NAM is showing snow, it’s the best model there is.
Also, I’ve seen Euro wind forecasts posted in the 30-50 MPH gust range outside the mountains for tomorrow, and we know that the Euro always overdoes wind forecast!
 
Tarheel1 said:
You know if any NAM is showing snow, it’s the best model there is.
Also, I’ve seen Euro wind forecasts posted in the 30-50 MPH gust range outside the mountains for tomorrow, and we know that the Euro always overdoes wind forecast!
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Euro sucks lol
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol the 32km NAM has terrible quality, and the 12km shows that line, it’s gonna likely be a line, saw wind damage from a similar setup in a recent February if I’m not mistaken, intense jet streak from the SW and lots of moisture aloft will drag down winds easily
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KK has spoken! The threat is to our East! Look out CLT! Her costume is going to be a goober!
 
Ok this is getting concerning.

sounding around Raleigh with discreet cells popping out in front of main line. Low topped supercells don’t take much to get fired up.
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Our severe events tend to “sneak up” on us just like this.

cold front will bring a 15-20 temp change boundary that can focus this line into a broken line of rotating storms. Good cape and moderate shear.... recipe for a potentially very active day.

will not be surprised to see enhanced risk increased in size. Outside shot moderate gets popped if they are aggressive IMO atmosphere could support that level of event.

I’d be on red alert tmrw in Central-Eastern NC. Pretty classic setup for tornadoes for that area.E7DA8308-EFDC-47E6-B404-2A4EE5EAA243.gif
 
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Really stout setup for a widespread wind damage event across the area with what is likely to be a single band of convection or 2 lines one south one north that may merge in time. Setup also looks fairly ripe to spin up a few tornadoes along bands. Have a slight bit of concern that a few cells may not be completely congealed into the main line that could cause some issues.

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0z 3k NAM has a supercell (likely rotating) that forms just north of Spartanburg, SC that tracks all through western NC into Virginia. It forms out ahead of the line after a lull. It’s a long tracked storm that hits Hickory, Lenoir, eastern Wilkes County then Stuart VA.
 
02z HRRR and 18zRGEM also show something very similar. Seems like extreme northern SC is a breeding zone for a supercell that tracks north-east into the NC foothills. Possible long track tornado. Well in advance of any convective lines.
 
Good news is more populated areas of Charlotte to Statesville kind of misses out if this occurs as planned.
 
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