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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Myfrotho704_ said:
Brad upping his wording View attachment 57557
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Whoohoo! I'm just inside the pink (south of Statesville along 77)! What do I win?

Brad P ought to stick to his guns if he thinks it's only a nuisance event. I'm sticking to my guns that I seriously doubt I'm getting anywhere near .25 of ice accrual.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Align that map pretty much with 85/north and make a circle for a more significant area in the foothills and there’s the finished product
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Yeah I’d probably push the ZR-RN line a little further SE but keep it just barely NW of CLT-RDU, maybe add an additional area just outside that for trace ZR or IP. GSO-Statesville-Hickory-Marion and pts north and west id go with at least 0.1-0.2” ZR with potential for 0.25”-0.3” or so and numerous-widespread power outages

I’m gonna wait until at least tonight’s 0z suite to produce a first call map, gonna need to see what effect if any this vort actually moving over the us RAOB network has on NWP
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The same, it weirdly warms up surface temps before precip moves in during the night....
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Is it weird though ? Looks like Tuesday night temps drop as it will be clear . Perhaps the Euro is just showing the onset of a low level system and some wind stirring up what would have been a perfect night of radiational cooling which results in the rise in temps as precip and clouds ( wind?!) arrive ?
 
Lickwx said:
Is it weird though ? Looks like Tuesday night temps drop as it will be clear . Perhaps the Euro is just showing the onset of a low level system and some wind stirring up what would have been a perfect night of radiational cooling which results in the rise in temps as precip and clouds ( wind?!) arrive ?
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Anyone have a link to current soil temps?
 
Here’s my first call map (blend of the NAM/GFS/CMC/RGEM/UK/ICON)
*note this could get warmer or I could get more aggressive, depends on trends the next 2 days !*
-thinking for Right near Charlotte and north, a glaze to .10 with a few sleet pellets is possible, this extends into the upstate and perhaps GA
-as you get towards LKN/huntersville up the 85 corridor to High point/GSO, you start increasing to 0.1 to 0.2 and perhaps 0.25 of ice along with some sleet, also @Sleet City USA favorite place landrum SC and those areas in the extreme northern upstate stand a better chance more ice
-As you get towards hickory/statesville up to the I-40 corridor, the chances of a more significant ice storm (0.25>) increase along with maybe up to 0.25 of sleet as those areas will be around 29-31 B3B5D810-17C2-4CA2-8F86-692D394D946F.jpeg
 
My prediction. Ice storm for the areas in red and further north. We will see.
 

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Here’s my first call map (blend of the NAM/GFS/CMC/RGEM/UK/ICON)
*note this could get warmer or I could get more aggressive, depends on trends the next 2 days !*
-thinking for Right near Charlotte and north, a glaze to .10 with a few sleet pellets is possible, this extends into the upstate and perhaps GA
-as you get towards LKN/huntersville up the 85 corridor to High point/GSO, you start increasing to 0.1 to 0.2 and perhaps 0.25 of ice along with some sleet, also @Sleet City USA favorite place landrum SC and those areas in the extreme northern upstate stand a better chance more ice
-As you get towards hickory/statesville up to the I-40 corridor, the chances of a more significant ice storm (0.25>) increase along with maybe up to 0.25 of sleet as those areas will be around 29-31 View attachment 57572
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Ollie is that your map? [mention]Ollie Williams [/mention]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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Here's my first call. I think along and North of I40 and Northeast of I26 is likely to see a significant ice storm. Widespread .25 here with isolated .4 of ICE in some valleys where CAD will likely hold on for the duration of the storm. I think the Triad, along and south of I40, and the prime CAD areas of SC likely get a decent storm out of this as well. TR, Taylors, Landrum, Inman, Greer, Chesnee, Boiling Springs, Gaffney, Lyman/Welford especially will likely see a decent storm. Greenville, Southern Spartanburg, Union, Simpsonville, CLT, and just east of the Triad should see at least a glaze to up to .1 of ICE. These CADs always hold on longer than models show, and usually over perform. I still don't think we will get a good feel until the 12z suite tomorrow from the mesoscale models.
 
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