Oconeexman
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DP at 7am
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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)
- Thread starter Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
- Start date
Someone broke the icon
iGRXY
Member
You’re seeing Dewpoints now down into the upper teens into Va and low to mid 20s in NC and SC. That’s not a good sign if you don’t want an ICE storm.
IDK, I would think you would have to see DP about 5 degrees lower up in Virginia during that time for this to be an event east of the mountains or south of I-40
It wouldn’t surprise me if this was a repeat of January 2019, although totals are questionable.
Yeah I agree, there’s still time to trend either way but Temps in the mid to low 30s over dews in the low 20s/upper teens is ideal for a ice storm
That looks about right.
Very expected of this model, but what I find interesting is how much the RGEM follows the CMC/Canadian ensembles with the low track and quicker transfer to the coast Note* (it’s cold biased a bit)
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Interesting, GFS is weakening our would-be 50/50 low a tad 
that trend with our S/W tho 
I wanna bet this run will be a tad warmer because we’re losing those slightly higher heights in Canada/near the GLs
oof I take that back^^....
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
1037 sitting pretty in a better position than 18Z. Nice front end thump of snow even down into Nc this run.
Yep, and the system is getting less amped as well.... Which means less WAA
That trend to a weaker system is beginning to reflect
iGRXY
Member
.This is my thinking right now. The blue is where I see more snow then a transition over to sleet. The Pink area would be more Sleet with a slow transition over to Freezing Rain. The purple area would be Freezing Rain. No accumulations but if we were to see frozen precip as of today, this is what I see is looking like. Below that is just the percentage of where I think we are as of right now to see ICE.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
That’s a good catch. Look in the mtns, actually goes back to snow around 18Z Wednesday. Probably for the very reason you’re mentioning.
iGRXY
Member
GFS is trying to erode the CAD as well. Which is a bias of the globals to do. A weaker LP isn't weakening a 1037 HP system.
NoSnowATL
Member
That’s the 1st map I’ve seen someone put it that far south into Georgia
Dews right before the precip, a bit lower than last run, while those upper 20s are still sorta meh, you gotta remember this is a classical CAD, and Low level CAA from The CAD is still happening during the system, really helps to when you system is trending less amped
If I were you, I would move the line out of RDU and CLT, and put the cutoff just over Alamance or GSO. I find that even if CAD gets stronger, it goes further south rather than east. Again, I’ve been burned in setups like this, the cutoff is always further west than modeled, albeit, further south.