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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Our wave hasn’t even been sampled yet.

phew ok I had to throw that out there.

NAM looked good. I would expect nothing less at this juncture. It gave us just enough to keep our local mets up late at night which is fun. They need to earn their keep.
 
i would watch how that dry slot progresses, could be a factor in lighter QPF, and something that results in more ice accretion, or less 4A70E47F-69DC-49D8-BF56-432A76E1D649.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Dews right before the precip, a bit lower than last run, while those upper 20s are still sorta meh, you gotta remember this is a classical CAD, and Low level CAA from The CAD is still happening during the system, really helps to when you system is trending less amped
View attachment 57401
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Surprising that those single and negative dews in the NE aren’t translating to teens further down the spine of the apps. Hmm
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Surprising that those single and negative dews in the NE aren’t translating to teens further down the spine of the apps. Hmm
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If we continue to slow and de-amplify the shortwave, we’re gonna allow time for some teen Dewpoints to develop, no joke
 
GEFS
GEFSMA_prec_ptypens_084.png
 
CMC remains the same, it’s consistently showing this presentation since lasts nights 00z
While I do think it’s a tad to cold, this colder look makes sense given a earlier transfer, and on the backside of a low which helps drive in CAA in sync with CAD 94C38E6E-00C2-45DD-BF3C-DE8CABE17751.pngDCC07A47-6083-42AC-88E4-605EA8F2FCCD.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
CMC remains the same, it’s consistently showing this presentation since lasts nights 00z
While I do think it’s a tad to cold, this colder look makes sense given a earlier transfer, and on the backside of a low which helps drive in CAA in sync with CAD View attachment 57406View attachment 57407
Click to expand...
Back in the day we gave the CMC the nod on CAD events because of its cold bias. Maybe that’s still true. CAD is always underdone at this lead so when the CMC overdoes the cold it’s usually close.
 
Hey all, first post on this Forum. Great, professional conversations, and information.

Here’s something I’m tossing around in my head... Freezing rain and 28F vs freezing rain and 31F are very different events because the latter accrues slower due to run off. (correct me if I’m wrong). So I’m using caution for now on the ice accrual maps. Not sure why it matters for me... I’m 15 miles south of GSO where it’s going to be 32.4 and rain anyway. Lol


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