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Freezing Rain, Sleet, Snow, Rain...Kitchen Sink (12/15-16)

Webberweather53 said:
Worth mentioning, for verification purposes & to keep myself honest, I've also kept a running archive of forecast maps I've published since joining this forum in January 2017 on my website:

http://www.webberweather.com/winter-storm-forecast-verification.html
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I like you’re 2nd December 12-13 2019 call map it looks pretty close to what I expect from this system. But I do want to see if this wave keeps trending weaker. Looks like the 06z euro went back towards a more amped up wave. However, it did still have a slightly stronger CAD.
2A748890-0447-4320-8727-75E7F408C69E.jpeg
 
Ethan80963 said:
I like you’re 2nd December 12-13 2019 call map it looks pretty close to what I expect from this system. But I do want to see if this wave keeps trending weaker. Looks like the 06z euro went back towards a more amped up wave. However, it did still have a slightly stronger CAD.
View attachment 57633
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I wonder if that was in-situ CAD or classical
 
Ethan80963 said:
I like you’re 2nd December 12-13 2019 call map it looks pretty close to what I expect from this system. But I do want to see if this wave keeps trending weaker. Looks like the 06z euro went back towards a more amped up wave. However, it did still have a slightly stronger CAD.
View attachment 57633
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Dec 12-13 2019 isn't a good comparison to this event synoptically, impact-wise it's probably not terribly far off although a bit lower than what I currently expect. Dec 2019 was an in-situ CAD wedge w/ the parent sfc high already well offshore New England as the main precipitation arrived from the SW.

Also notice how much warmer the surface temperatures are to the north in Dec 12-13 2019 and the winds are out of the south in New England & the NE US.

1607949705511.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Freezing Rain Accumulation Model (FRAM) output is a bit more reasonable but potentially still a little overcooked.

View attachment 57636
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RGEM is that solution imo where CAD hangs on a few hours longer than we all thought, all though I think the areas that’s most likely to possibly have that is the foothills where CAD does typically hang out much longer
Hrrrv4 should be coming into range, I’m almost sure they fixed the BL mixing bias (could be wrong) so it should be interesting
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
RGEM is that solution imo where CAD hangs on a few hours longer than we all thought, all though I think the areas that’s most likely to possibly have that is the foothills where CAD does typically hang out much longer
Hrrrv4 should be coming into range, I’m almost sure they fixed the BL mixing bias (could be wrong) so it should be interesting
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This is definitely one of the more classic setups where CAD tends to overperform vs NWP. However, when your high isn't in the proper position or the cold air is arriving after legitimate precip is already falling, those are the instances where we do bust warmer.
 
Hard to find a more classic freezing rain sounding than this area-averaged one on the RGEM Wednesday morning over the Triad.

Screen Shot 2020-12-14 at 8.08.19 AM.png


Sfc temps and wet bulbs in the upper 20s-near 30F ✔
Mid-level warm nose > +3-4C (full melting of hydrometeors) ✔
Very shallow (< 2500 feet) below freezing air mass at and just above the surface ✔
Low-level cold advection ✔
Light-moderate precipitation ✔

1607951666301.png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Hard to find a more classic freezing rain sounding than this area-averaged one on the RGEM Wednesday morning over the Triad.

View attachment 57638


Sfc temps and wet bulbs in the upper 20s-near 30F ✔
Mid-level warm nose > +3-4C (full melting of hydrometeors) ✔
Very shallow (< 2500 feet) below freezing air mass at and just above the surface ✔
Low-level cold advection ✔
Light-moderate precipitation ✔

View attachment 57639
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Hope the RGEM is to cool here ? yeah there’s absolutely no chance of IP with this, that freezing layer is weak af8B5C19F9-AFD6-4CD0-A816-1DF3F3AEEEF6.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
NE US I-95 corridor getting screwed over this morning.

I'll allow it

View attachment 57649
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Brrrr @ the cold rain! Wish this would just run the interior honestly. We don’t need the mid Atlantic to receive 2 feet before we can even squeeze out a flake in the Carolinas. Wouldn’t be good for us looking down the road.
 
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