Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

[Jon]

What am I missing? PV split?

View attachment 3958


View attachment 3959

...and I'm just asking a serious question ....

The PV split has nothing to do with the winter of 90-91, warm winter overall as the maps show, I was just giving an example of when to expect modeling to reflect the consequences of a PV split - which is Day 14 or so. 1991 was an analog I identified along with 1985, back on Jan 23rd long before Cohen wrote his blog posts identifying the exact same two years as analogs for this PV split. 1985 is more closely related as it was a weak La Niña and E QBO year. These analogs are preferred because of the irregularity in the splitting, which in both years and like the current PV split ongoing, leaves a large sister lobe over North America.

The PV split didn’t result in much in the way of snow, we actually didn’t do well in 1991, but it at least brought winter back even if it was short lived. Here’s a RDU chart:

Salt needed though, as no PV event is alike and the fact that we have two very different analogs should tell you something...we’re in uncharted territory and the truth is no one knows what late Feb holds, it’s a coin flip.


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[cd2play]

Ohhh... ?

Nashville got down to 7 degrees for a low on February 15 or 16, along with a light snow event.

 

[Kylo]

The EPS runs doesn't get much worse for cold weather, we need the inverse of what it's showing. Not saying it's correct but GEFS moved in this direction too. These models are moving around some but none are moving towards colder weather in the east.

 

[BPATL]

This thread name needs to be changed to "Fraudulent February"...

 

[tennessee storm]

This thread name needs to be changed to "Fraudulent February"...

You know it’s bad when all topic is. About past years. .... that says it all lol

 

[pcbjr]

The PV split has nothing to do with the winter of 90-91, warm winter overall as the maps show, I was just giving an example of when to expect modeling to reflect the consequences of a PV split - which is Day 14 or so. 1991 was an analog I identified along with 1985, back on Jan 23rd long before Cohen wrote his blog posts identifying the exact same two years as analogs for this PV split. 1985 is more closely related as it was a weak La Niña and E QBO year. These analogs are preferred because of the irregularity in the splitting, which in both years and like the current PV split ongoing, leaves a large sister lobe over North America.

The PV split didn’t result in much in the way of snow, we actually didn’t do well in 1991, but it at least brought winter back even if it was short lived. Here’s a RDU chart:

Salt needed though, as no PV event is alike and the fact that we have two very different analogs should tell you something...we’re in uncharted territory and the truth is no one knows what late Feb holds, it’s a coin flip.


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Thanks, Jon!
Appreciate the explanation. I was not connecting the dots and assumed some sort of equation.
My bad!
Best!
Phil

 

[Rain Cold]

The EPS runs doesn't get much worse for cold weather, we need the inverse of what it's showing. Not saying it's correct but GEFS moved in this direction too. These models are moving around some but none are moving towards colder weather in the east.

View attachment 3961

Yep, unfortunately. I keep hoping to wake up and see a turn for the better in the overnight runs. Instead, they give me the morning runs. The buffet is shut down!

 

[Storm5]

The EPS runs doesn't get much worse for cold weather, we need the inverse of what it's showing. Not saying it's correct but GEFS moved in this direction too. These models are moving around some but none are moving towards colder weather in the east.

View attachment 3961

The gefs was a trend away from previous colder runs and looks more like the eps now

00z eps

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[Kylo]

The gefs was a trend away from previous colder runs and looks more like the eps now

00z eps

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I guess we shouldn't be surprised, this fits phase 7 MJO and nina climo. We are going to spend almost 3 weeks in high amplitude phase 7. Even phase 8 for FMA MJO temperature composites is mostly a conus torch. Phase 1-2-3 for FMA are well below normal though.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

MJO the ghost of 8, 1 and 2... It's stuck in phase 7 see you in March

Hits keep coming enjoy the warmer weather... Can't complain over 10" of snow this season but always the great white hope in March long shot but always there

 

[ForsythSnow]

I think it's safe to say that there isn't going to be a freeze here at least until the end of the month. Looks rainy and warm.

 

[deltadog03]

I don’t know what to think about the pattern anymore

 

[Brent]

5 minute sleet shower incoming Edit: I think it fell apart

then I'm ready to torch with the rest of yall

 

[Clayton]

I don’t know what to think about the pattern anymore

Yeah, it's confusing and frustrating. Models are everywhere and it doesn't even look like legit storms are forming anywhere on the Eastern half of the country. Just waves of energy. What the hell is going on?

 

[GaWx]

Yeah, it's confusing and frustrating. Models are everywhere and it doesn't even look like legit storms are forming anywhere on the Eastern half of the country. Just waves of energy. What the hell is going on?

Not for temperatures. For the SE US, they have been very consistently warm for many days of runs going out 15 days.

 

[deltadog03]

problem is, MJO is helping driving the pattern, and in phase 7 that does NOTHING for us......other than bring us rain. *btw, which we need*

 

[deltadog03]

Not for temperatures. For the SE US, they have been very consistently warm for many days of runs going out 15 days.

I will say it has been consistent with that for sure.

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

I can understand pattern changes being rushed by models but this delay of going into phase 8 by the MJO seems a bit crazy. Longer we go the more that I may want to skip phase 8. As if it keeps stalled seemingly there for long, before long it'll be late March when we finally get it and it's going to cause headaches again with fruit crops.

 

[ForsythSnow]

I can understand pattern changes being rushed by models but this delay of going into phase 8 by the MJO seems a bit crazy. Longer we go the more that I may want to skip phase 8. As if it keeps stalled seemingly there for long, before long it'll be late March when we finally get it and it's going to cause headaches again with fruit crops.

Yep, I heard the peach growers in GA are expecting a great year ahead from the cold air we had earlier this year and it would be bad if they start to flower and we get a cold snap. I think we all may be throwing in the towel by the end of the month though.

problem is, MJO is helping driving the pattern, and in phase 7 that does NOTHING for us......other than bring us rain. *btw, which we need*

I agree completely about the rain part. Let's take the drought down quite a bit if we can't get wintry weather. The lake is only 2.53 feet down now from all this rain and has been sharply rising. In addition, parts of the SE have gone from below average for the year to above since the rain began.

 

[Brent]

oh here's my 5 minute sleet shower

Sleet on the interstates in Dallas