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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
Even if the models are overdoing the warmth in the LR, we need to see signs of some mechanism to send legitimate cold air into the SE...cold enough to allow for the possibility of winter weather. Not seeing that yet. Maybe we can make the argument that the models are not seeing it yet. But so far, there has been a lot of model tossing en lieu of “sound meteorological rationale” for why the second half of Feb into March will be cold and snowy. Now, we are knocking on the door of the second half of Feb and the models still not have corrected toward the cold forecasts. The clock is ticking....
Jon
Member
Just 20-40F spread in the long range at 2 meters, the models definitely know what’s going on.Nice snowy -1 anomalies in the SE. Sweet 52 degree rain.
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I doubt they’re going to nail the forecast this far out, but outside of a few ensemble members, there’s no real indication that it’s going to get cold again here. Cool, maybe, but we’re getting toward the time of year when we need pretty substantial cold. Not there yet, but getting close. It would sure be nice to see some guidance actually start to show that scenario with regularity.Just 20-40F spread in the long range at 2 meters, the models definitely know what’s going on.
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Snow and cold isnt nearly as fun when thats all you ever see for 2 months straight. I dont even get excited about 1-2" of snow like I used to.
Storm5
Member
yeah the " second half " of February isn't going to be cold. The last WEEK of February might be a colder start as we head into March.
the can keeps getting kicked. First it was mid month, then the back half now we are headed towards the last week
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Kylo
Member
The EPS is solidly above normal so it’s hard not to lean toward above normal temps. Above normal temps for end of February is in the 60’s.
This isn’t just the EPS burying trough in the west or the ensembles over doing the Atlantic ridge. The pacific is bad, the tropospheric PV is not in a favorable spot and the blocking isn’t materializing, atleast not yet.
I still believe we will see some sort of winter threat before mid March.
For the record, I don’t mean to say any of that in conflict with what Jon and others are pointing out. They make good and legitimate arguments. I am just ready to see the guidance start guiding toward a cold pattern. If we don’t see that in the next couple of weeks, and instead keep seeing a blazing SE ridge and the cold in Canada evacuating toward Asia, then winter will be over. And we can get on toward tracking a severe storm-limiting cool spring with no instability and a raging -NAO.
Jon
Member
The Euro and EPS haven’t been consistent enough with the long range to have me locked into the ridging Day 10 right now. Just look at Day 10 850mb temp differences from 00z Euro Op to 12z today. Ensemble runs are obviously control runs based off the Op then perturbed, so they could change at a drop of a dime during a shakeup of the PV and strat in the next few weeks.
It’s been documented by Cohen that the east coast doesn’t usually see any changes from a PV split or displacement until Day 15 or so. So the time period that’s crucial here is Day 10-15 which I believe the models are having an insanely difficult time predicting atm. Progged heat is always easier to trust.
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MichaelJ
Member
Thanks for keeping things in perspective Jon when it comes to long range model predictions, also kudos to Webber for being analytical instead of emotional like some tend to be when they don't see long range modelling they like. I will be the first here to admit I have no clue what late Feb or most of March will bring for the SE but I refuse to call the final score before the last second ticks off and base everything off models which have largely failed miserably this La Nina winter.
Is there any way we can move the rain to tye middle of the week and then have sunny Friday-Sunday?.
cd2play
Member
Actually I think the cold will stay on our side of the globe for the rest of the winter, I'm just afraid it's just going to sit there in Canada, upper MIdwest and laugh at us.
Storm5
Member
Lol well, looks shower chances are pretty high this coming week BUT it also looks like more rain chances next weekend . So maybe we push this week and hope for sun the next and tge weekend of the 23rd?
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cd2play
Member
There is going to be more winter weather mischief before winter is over. Since I've lived here (44 years) we have had at least a trace of snow on the ground (in Nashville) at least three times every winter. So far, we have had snow on the ground only twice, so history says we will get at least a dusting again before the lightning bugs arise this spring/summer.
Kylo
Member
The Euro and EPS haven’t been consistent enough with the long range to have me locked into the ridging Day 10 right now. Just look at Day 10 850mb temp differences from 00z Euro Op to 12z today. Ensemble runs are obviously control runs based off the Op then perturbed, so they could change at a drop of a dime during a shakeup of the PV and strat in the next few weeks.
It’s been documented by Cohen that the east coast doesn’t usually see any changes from a PV split or displacement until Day 15 or so. So the time period that’s crucial here is Day 10-15 which I believe the models are having an insanely difficult time predicting atm. Progged heat is always easier to trust.
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That's a great chart! And considering the split is just occurring today we really need to wait another week or so to see if we then start seeing some consistent signals for better pattern in the ensembles. Why I am holding out hope of one more winter event for the area.
Jon
Member
Feb 1991 was a good example of that picture and the delayed gratification of a PV split in an otherwise warm month.
PV split occurred Feb 1, 1991 and you can see the first half was warm with ridging over the entire US. Pattern changed 10-15 days later win a trough east.
The AO, NAO, PNA all flipped in a matter of days.
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pcbjr
Member
Feb 1991 was a good example of that picture and the delayed gratification of a PV split in an otherwise warm month.
PV split occurred Feb 1, 1991 and you can see the first half was warm with ridging over the entire US. Pattern changed 10-15 days later win a trough east.
The AO, NAO, PNA all flipped in a matter of days.
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What am I missing? PV split?
...and I'm just asking a serious question ....
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cd2play
Member
Overall February 1991 was warmer than normal. However, around mid-month (approx 2 weeks after the split) there was a very brief period of bitter cold air (about 2 days).
pcbjr
Member
Ohhh... ?
I know if we all look at to the beginning of the season. We was affaid it was going to be a front load winter season this year. And so far it seems like this is going to be the case. Even through I didn’t receive much snow this year. Most of the Southeast had a awesome winter considering lot of the south had 2 snowstorm and receiving 2 or 3 times there annual snowfall for the year. Just my 2 cents.