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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Not for temperatures. For the SE US, they have been very consistently warm for many days of runs going out 15 days.
That's the thing. There's hardly any cool down. The strat warm, mjo, -SOI didn't help us at all and I feel like they are all over hyped. Basically when u live in the SE you can't depend on the strat warm PV split, SOI crash, mjo, etc. You just have to hope that you can haphazardly score a cold shot and a big storm no matter how good the teleconnections may be. SMH. The only thing we can guarantee is warm and rain. I get that we need it but this is ridiculous. How pathetic
 
Yep, I heard the peach growers in GA are expecting a great year ahead from the cold air we had earlier this year and it would be bad if they start to flower and we get a cold snap. I think we all may be throwing in the towel by the end of the month though.

I agree completely about the rain part. Let's take the drought down quite a bit if we can't get wintry weather. The lake is only 2.53 feet down now from all this rain and has been sharply rising. In addition, parts of the SE have gone from below average for the year to above since the rain began.
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It doesn't even look like phase 8 mjo helps because it's basically blowtorch for most of the country in that phase.
 
Not for temperatures. For the SE US, they have been very consistently warm for many days of runs going out 15 days.
Thing is we keep moving the goalposts. First it was phase 8 mjo now we have to wait for phases 1, ,2, and 3 and we still may not get cold? SMH. That will probably take at least until March and I don't think we can put much confidence in March producing a big winter storm or cold, let alone a March 1960 lucky repeat. We're screwed
 
Yep, I heard the peach growers in GA are expecting a great year ahead from the cold air we had earlier this year and it would be bad if they start to flower and we get a cold snap. I think we all may be throwing in the towel by the end of the month though.

I agree completely about the rain part. Let's take the drought down quite a bit if we can't get wintry weather. The lake is only 2.53 feet down now from all this rain and has been sharply rising. In addition, parts of the SE have gone from below average for the year to above since the rain began.
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no more rain, no more rain. we need a good two weeks now to dry out
 
I can understand pattern changes being rushed by models but this delay of going into phase 8 by the MJO seems a bit crazy. Longer we go the more that I may want to skip phase 8. As if it keeps stalled seemingly there for long, before long it'll be late March when we finally get it and it's going to cause headaches again with fruit crops.
More likely heading toward circle of death .... wouldn’t worry bout it much
 
As of 2 pm its a balmy 33 degrees at my house . Both the GFS and Euro hinting at light snow for Tennessee at the end of week.
 
Eric Webb aka Webberweather (along with a few others) warned us back in December this would happen, that La Nina and the SE Ridge would cut winter off by end of January. I should have known
 
As of 2 pm its a balmy 33 degrees at my house . Both the GFS and Euro hinting at light snow for Tennessee at the end of week.
After getting down to 47 at 1am last night my temp then shot up to 59 by 8am. It then went down to 43 by 10am and I’m now at 40 degrees. Wow 33! Northwest Tennessee always seems to be the place to be for cold and snow.
 
Eric Webb aka Webberweather (along with a few others) warned us back in December this would happen, that La Nina and the SE Ridge would cut winter off by end of January. I should have known

Ya but for a while he was thinking that it was possible that he would be wrong...but we all got duped by what the teleconnections were looking like, just like "Voldemort" from the old days. Everyone from the intellectuals to the hobbyists. There was only one guy that ended up being right in the shorter term, and that was Shawn. Everyone else had hope because of what the teleconnections were looking like temporarily.

Don't feel like digging it up but he had said that the strong MJO event in phase 7 makes him think that we might have already flipped to a warm-ENSO background.
 
Eric Webb aka Webberweather (along with a few others) warned us back in December this would happen, that La Nina and the SE Ridge would cut winter off by end of January. I should have known
They all warned us it would happen, but then hyping the Fabu Feb with the rest of them. You can’t tell me everybody was touting the Jan thaw, then Feb roaring back, because that’s what indicies and models were pointing to. Then everything went to hell in a hand basket! We know Feb Niña analogs are torch, but I guarantee 10 days before Feb, nobody was seeing that!
 
Mentioned watching the 2/17 time frame back of 2/7.

Euro is colder at 850 on the ensembles, some members with snow. Something to watch for NC. Even if it’s sandwiched between torches, all we need is good timing and 850’s that support snow.

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