Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[Stormlover]

Sorry dude, you live outside of the Carolinas, you basically live on another continent to me.

Cop out. Don't explain it then...smh

 

[SD]

Cop out. Don't explain it then...smh

It's the profanity filter I wasn't going to just use ******* ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Cop out. Don't explain it then...smh

L post

 

[deltadog03]

Sorry I'm super late to the party but I just saw the 12z GFS.

View attachment 68876





View attachment 68880


?

I know the look will change a million times, but I think the pattern upcoming will fit that look

 

[NoSnowATL]

Huh? Sorry, I missed something. I just asked a simple question about why Dawson's Creek kept being referred to and got a ridiculous response. Anyway....

It’s a filter to cover a bad word. When you same ---- it says ----.

 

[Stormlover]

It’s a filter to cover a bad word. When you same banana it says banana.

gotcha

 

[Chandler]

Nice...

 

[TheBatman]

I know the look will change a million times, but I think the pattern upcoming will fit that look

Para gfs has storm. It also actually did a good job with last storm for my Carolina peeps.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Para gfs has storm. It also actually did a good job with last storm for my Carolina peeps. View attachment 68927

I say hope it holds and bring it on! Cold is better than a torch at least too. My only concern is a buffed SER or the trough sliding west.

 

[NCSNOW]

Full Moon. Wind chills have to be low teens. You boys with snow on ground, country side need to walk outside, enjoy

 

[CaryWx]

I know the look will change a million times, but I think the pattern upcoming will fit that look

Is it still on the 00Z GFS at that range or has it not rolled out that far yet?

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Is it still on the 00Z GFS at that range or has it not rolled out that far yet?

It still has the idea. Precip was lighter and a little warmer but still had some mixing in Ga

 

[ForsythSnow]

Just your average 1058 high dropping out of Canada on the GFS.

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

Just your average 1058 high dropping out of Canada on the GFS.

That was some incredible cold!

 

[ForsythSnow]

That was some incredible cold!

That gets stuck by the SER showing up. Can't get it east that easily.

 

[BufordWX]

?

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

That gets stuck by the SER showing up. Can't get it east that easily.

Yup... Midwest is gonna be an ice box

 

[BufordWX]

Yup... Midwest is gonna be an ice box

These are some chilly temperatures for the afternoon. Lol

 

[NorthGaWinter4]

These are some chilly temperatures for the afternoon. LolView attachment 68986

if we ain’t getting snow I’ll pass you enjoy that lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Obviously we’re gonna deal with the southeast ridge, this one looks legit given there’s not trough off the EC/on top

 

[whatalife]

I really enjoy seeing that southeast ridge showing up stronger for the month of February!


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[LickWx]

I really enjoy seeing that southeast ridge showing up stronger for the month of February!


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I feel the pain it took to write that. ?. I obviously enjoy it but I know most, especially further south dont.

 

[Stormlover]

love the new gfs (para)

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This was our winter storm that was showing up yesterday ??

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Very active pattern through the medium range. Just no cold air to work with.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Very active pattern through the medium range. Just no cold air to work with.

Just need a weaker SER and stronger cold press. A good step this run vs 6Z.

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Just need a weaker SER and stronger cold press. A good step this run vs 6Z.

Yeah, the ridge creates a stationary front with the arctic boundary which just funnels a ton of moisture through the SE...imagine if that ridge was weaker or more east based. You can see a big arctic sfc high just waiting to drop down.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just your typical all or nothing pattern

 

[Flotown]

love the new gfs (para)View attachment 69028

yeah and old gfs ain't far off either

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Just your typical all or nothing pattern View attachment 69039

It's going to be sad when the SER screws us and by the time it finally breaks down, the arctic air mass will have moderated.

 

[LickWx]

It's going to be sad when the SER screws us and by the time it finally breaks down, the arctic air mass will have moderated.

Arctic air masses have to moderate going east , if you are east of the apps especially . SER or not we aren’t going to get the -9 or whatever the GFS had for OKC. It would have to moderate a bit . Though you live a good deal west of me so the moderation would be less .

 

[LovingGulfLows]

Arctic air masses have to moderate going east , if you are east of the apps especially . SER or not we aren’t going to get the -9 or whatever the GFS had for OKC. It would have to moderate a bit . Though you live a good deal west of me so the moderation would be less .

Ofc but its going to moderate to the point where none of us have a chance at wintry precip or even unusually cold air.

 

[ATLwxfan]

Looks like blobs of PV cold instead of a a sustained cold. Frankly that’s better if you like wintery weather.


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[Myfrotho704_]

CMC put a beat down on the ridge this run surprisingly vs it’s huge SER last run, not far from CAD pattern here (sound like a broken record I know)

 

[Chazwin]

CMC put a beat down on the ridge this run surprisingly vs it’s huge SER last run, not far from CAD pattern here (sound like a broken record I know) View attachment 69046View attachment 69047

As long as that -NAO is there, I just don’t think you’ll see the SER take over. We may see it flex enough to bring a milder day here and there, but it’ll probably be mainly transient.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

As long as that -NAO is there, I just don’t think you’ll see the SER take over. We may see it flex enough to bring a milder day here and there, but it’ll probably be mainly transient.

Seems like not matter how unfavorable tropical forcing is, the -NAO is a buzzsaw, people say a weak PV doesn’t do nothing but it’s offered us some of the best blocking in years

 

[ATLwxfan]

Blocking hasn’t done a whole lot for us though. I know...at least we haven’t torched.


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[whatalife]

So what am I missing. The AO, NAO, WPO, EPO, PNA are all negative by the 7ish on the 00z EPS. Should that not help lead to much colder temps for us. Yet the EPS is normal to AN for us from the 7th on...Is it the MJO?


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[LickWx]

So what am I missing. The AO, NAO, WPO, EPO, PNA are all negative by the 7ish on the 00z EPS. Should that not help lead to much colder temps for us. Yet the EPS is normal to AN for us from the 7th on...Is it the MJO?


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It’s the EPO and PNA.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I get just a little bit nervous that we pop a secondary shortwave off here in S TX and get severe, that trough behind should keep that in check tho