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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Meteorologist1999 said:
I think the central Midlands of SC could possibly finally get some kind of wintry threat.
Click to expand...
If that pattern comes to fruition (TPV around the GLs) it’s certainly possibly, imo one of the best looks in while for areas further south (I-20 included)
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
I think the central Midlands of SC could possibly finally get some kind of wintry threat.
Click to expand...
Please don't jinx us man. We do not speak of it or show it any attention or it'll disappear. Just go on, live your daily life, and pretend like nothing is happening.
 
Well, February 1. January for CLT area was a big disappointment considering the -NAO, but there just wasn't any real cold. Glad to come back after a break and see a nice cold shot coming in next week. Hope it materializes, and hope it hangs on. I'm kinda in the camp of worrying the cold shot doesn't last and retreats out west with the setup. But at least from day 7 to 14 we'll be in the game, more so IMO than we were in January.
 
As much as I would like an overrunning setup, getting the Baja low to be stuck probably won't be the worst thing in the world. As we get the monster TPV piece to retrograde towards SE Canada, we can get a synoptic look very similar to March 1927 (For real this time). The low just adds to precip if the Euro is anything to go by.
ecmwf-deterministic-namer-vort500_z500-2872000.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-2872000.pngecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_barbs-2872000.png
 
Hemispheric z500a composite animation of some of the biggest, most widespread overrunning events in the SE US over the last 50 years during the 7 days leading up to the event.

Some key features to note here are the big west-based -NAO in the 5-7 days leading to the overrunning gives way to a giant Lakes/SE Canada vortex a few days in advance of the big storm & is coupled to some high-latitude N Pacific blocking (-WPO/-EPO) which injects legit Arctic air into the pattern. As the overrunning event unfolds, a longwave trough axis then swings thru the south-central Plains & MS valley while our big Lakes/SE Canada vortex migrates towards Atlantic Canada, providing favorable large-scale cold & moisture advection to produce snow in the southern US while also suppressing the wave to the south.

This is the kind of evolution we want to see & trend to at some pt in the coming few weeks to produce a big, board-wide winter storm.

Large, Widespread SE US overrunning events 1970-2020.gif
 
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