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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Damn

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Even a I-40 event May be pushing it tbh View attachment 70326View attachment 70327
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It looks to me like the real problem here is that the low is to strong, so it takes a northern track, instead of the weak wave moving along the Gulf coast and then emerging in the Atlantic around FL/GA. The Canadian had that weak wave with the cold press coming in from the north.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’re so close to dumping this out west here View attachment 70329
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Look at the heights beginning to pump over the SE on the next frames. Congrats Arkansas maybe? Kentucky? Maybe parts of TN? lol.. but seriously.. it still could be worse.

Edit: I would assume they'll collapse further on with the way 500 looks, but who knows.
 
Shawn said:
Look at the heights beginning to pump over the SE on the next frames. Congrats Arkansas maybe? Kentucky? Maybe parts of TN? lol.. but seriously.. it still could be worse.
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As long as that -NAO is there, I just don’t think the SER is going to be a big problem. Models have repeatedly been trying to flex it in this time range, only for it it weaken the closer we get.
 
Ollie Williams said:
The stronger the low pressure is over the Pacific and Alaska, the better.
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At least in the short term I kind of agree, the deeper Alaska low will provide westerly momentum to kick the vortex to the east. The Greenland block is actually holding it back and trying to send it west
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah we need this over the GLs, not the northern plains, lol View attachment 70335
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Don’t have to go back very far to remember how much NWP waffled on the last big vortex in southern Canada before the storm on the 27-28th. Inside day 5 we went from having it in Nunavut and the Canadian Archipelago to central Ontario. I’m kind of hoping they’re holding it back too long this time too
 
Do things look as good as yesterday? No. But it's not time to hit the panic button quite yet. We still have plenty of more model runs to go before we can all link hands and cliff dive. The pattern is there, we just need everything to line up. (Which is how every single storm in the SE goes).
 
Looks to me like we might get a brief cold snap that retreats out of the SE by Tues.
 
Well, at least there is something to still watch for on the 11th and 12th. Wonder if the Euro ensembles will be as good as the last run.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol 1055? That’s something you normally see in Eurasia not N America
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Even though this run was warmer overall, the same pattern is still present, it just takes a little longer for the TPV to move under that block ( which I think is partly just the Euro showing it’s SW bias). With a 1055 high there is not much doubt the cold is coming.
 
Stormdoc said:
Even though this run was warmer overall, the same pattern is still present, it just takes a little longer for the TPV to move under that block ( which I think is partly just the Euro showing it’s SW bias). With a 1055 high there is not much doubt the cold is coming.
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It’s actually a 1060-1061 on the Euro. That would be a record breaker for February in SW Canada and the N Rockies

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I am not always a proponent of Bastardis bathtub slosh theory, but in this case you have to think that heavy cold air mass has to move a little west to east. With its bias, I sometimes think the Euro forgets that in the temperate zones weather patterns move west to east Lol.
 
I can't count how many times we have seen big changes (good and bad...mostly bad) in the 2-4 day range as the players are better sampled.....the key is after Sunday/Monday we should be primed for a decent chance to get a large over running widespread event in the SE.....basically buckle up gonna be a long several weeks......also act like you been here before.....:)
 
For some reason, super, mega , cold outbreaks, always seem to dump out West the last 10 years or so! It’s just a thing, I mean, the models show them coming down the plains at first, then they end up coming down into MT and just stopping or going either further west into the PNW!
 
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