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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Myfrotho704_ said:
I’m surprised it’s not 70 degrees yet with most of these members given the trends on them View attachment 71307
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I’ll take this look over a week out. Plenty of good looks here. It’s basically the Euro, CMC, Icon vs gfs. I would think gfs will correct towards the euro. We have plenty of time here imo. Maybe our random piece of energy will drop out of Canada and help us this time rather than screw us over like last time.
 
Chazwin said:
I really wish I had saved more operational GFS runs over the years so that I could see what it showed at various timeframes leading up to winter storms... I really think it would be eye opening of just how off it’s been before. Some of the last 10 years I can remember a little... for example with the Christmas 2010 storm after actually picking up on that storm during the 8-10 day, it turned it into a cutter, then brought it back to a big storm for western and central NC during the 4-5 day, then squashed to miss us east during the 2-4 day before finally ending up fairly close to what actually verified the day before. I don’t bring that to say that this run is definitely not going to be reality, but to bring that a lot folks get wound up about this model that over the years is just plain out horrible in this timeframe
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Really the GFS does seem to do this a lot.....in the 4-7 day range it is often on a island by itself.....it also seems like the GFS does a good job of sniffing stuff out in the 8-10 day range only to make big changes away in the 5-7 day range, then it sit on that weird outlier solution for 4-5 runs before baby stepping back to the consensus ( the inevitable caving in ) .......I am holding on hope that since the Euro and GFS agreed in the 8-10 day range that they had a pretty decent grasp on the setup.....

The Christmas 2010 storm evolution was brutal but that last 24 hrs was so sweet......
 
BullCityWx said:
So the best model suite out there depicts a major winter storm along with some bitterly cold means.

But we’re sweating the GFS? The worst scoring model? The model that would be eating paste in the back of the class?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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The model that picked up on the Jan 28 storm first. But maybe it's doing the thing of losing a storm after showing it first and then bringing it back a couple of days later.
 
Musings from Griteater over on American:
I would certainly lean Euro/EPS on getting the big picture right out in time given the heavy high latitude blocking pattern etc, regardless of what outcome it is showing for us. Not too worried about the current GFS unless the UKMET/Euro go in that direction. I think the changes with the weekend storm are a bit separate (smaller scale features that all of the models are struggling with driving storm track changes).
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I just think we need to wait until 5 days out, everything will change, for all we know the system might honestly not exist, its way too early to be thinking anything, its a hint for the SE US, maybe something will happen, I know they are all showing a system, but IMO modeling has been horrible this year, they all latched on yesterday, I get it, it is just something to take note of, the only thing that interests me is almost all modeling having the same output, just something to watch how it trends
 
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