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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

Myfrotho704_ said:
The EPS has actually been getting better the last 2 days, it’s taking more nods the the CMC/CMCEView attachment 71349
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Yeah 00z EPS was a good look but not as strong with the tpv. 12z strengthened but shifted west and delayed our cold push. Then boom 18z, keeps the stronger tpv but corrects back east. Nice run
 
Ollie Williams said:
One thing that we have with the pattern vs other storm patterns is cold air! Certainly a key component. There are lots of things that can go wrong, but we have the ingredients.
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Of all the ingredients here in SE, the cold is always our shortfall. If nothing else we can all appreciate the fact that the cold will be in place. That is honestly the very best and first hope for everyone of us in weenie land and beyond. Without the cold we’re totally out of the game usually or clinging to marginal but limited hope! Good luck to us all!! Should be fun!
 
Chazwin said:
I can tell you from watching his videos often, he is not one to get too caught up into op models runs 8 days out. If he’s interested, it’s because he’s seeing the strong signal in the ensembles.
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Yeah, I don’t even live there and know he’s a def snow grinch....bodes well imho!
 
deltadog03 said:
Tells me the OP is on crack more than likely
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Guys I realize this isn’t weather class for the nicice fanbase but having dabbled and lurked for 20 years on 3-4 different weather boards could someone mention the basic difference between operational and ensemble model runs? While I “think” I can infer it would be awesome to here a legit answer in this regard. TIA!
 
GaSnowhound said:
Guys I realize this isn’t weather class for the nicice fanbase but having dabbled and lurked for 20 years on 3-4 different weather boards could someone mention the basic difference between operational and ensemble model runs? While I “think” I can infer it would be awesome to here a legit answer in this regard. TIA!
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Each model has a number of ensemble members that make up the model. Each ensemble member has just a little bit of a tweek in the information that is incorporated into it. The model then extrapolates that information and basically makes it's best guess on all of that information which It then produces in the operational.
 
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Broken024 said:
This is really encouraging. Your probably in a nyquil coma by now, but hopefully this shows up on 0z runs.
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Nope, I’ve already actually passed the sleepiest part which was weaksauce, I get used to medicine to quick, and yeah if the GFS/GEFS start going back the other way, then that’ll truly become encouraging, we’re finally starting to get this in the D7 window
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nope, I’ve already actually passed the sleepiest part which was weaksauce, I get used to medicine to quick, and yeah if the GFS/GEFS start going back the other way, then that’ll truly become encouraging, we’re finally starting to get this in the D7 window
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Alrighty then. We expect a full pbp untill 0z eps
 
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