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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

So as of now the biggest hurdle I see is timing (lol ya right, always is) a quicker arriving moisture/system and we have more rain and ice issues. Slower arriving and we have the euro and EPS solution.
 
Very happy that in the long range there's cold shown mid month. That keeps us in the game for several more weeks.

For the 10 day storm, I really don't like the SE ridge involved for many reasons. If that element is there and keeps trending stronger I'm going to keep my expectations very low.

1612448172709.png
 
FallsLake said:
The NAM will come out ~9am. If you go to the Pivotal site, you can select on each model and then pull down different run times.
Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather

But here is a text listing:
All the times are EST and approximate.

GFS (out to 384 hours)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (out to 84 hours)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (out to 180 hours)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (out to 72 hours)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

NOGAPS (out to 180 hours)
*00z = 2:00 AM
*12z = 2:00 PM

DGEX (out to 192 hours)
*00z = 5:15 AM
*12z = 5:15 PM

JMA (out to 144 hours)
*00z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 AM
*12z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 PM
Click to expand...
There needs to be a most asked questions forum so we can put all these answers in there and get rid of clutter .. I swear this has been asked 12 times over .. no hard feeling I understand there’s new people joining everyday just an idea
 
SnowNiner said:
Very happy that in the long range there's cold shown mid month. That keeps us in the came for several more weeks.

For the 10 day storm, I really don't like the SE ridge involved for many reasons. If that element is there and keeps trending stronger I'm going to keep my expectations very low.

View attachment 71042
Click to expand...
One thing to remember is models have tried to trend to more SER in the medium to long range only to squash it the closer to the day 3-4 timeframe we get to. I honestly expect it to get stronger only to get squashed the closer we get.
 
SnowNiner said:
Very happy that in the long range there's cold shown mid month. That keeps us in the game for several more weeks.

For the 10 day storm, I really don't like the SE ridge involved for many reasons. If that element is there and keeps trending stronger I'm going to keep my expectations very low.

View attachment 71042
Click to expand...

The SE ridge that’s there is the only thing keeping this from being a New Orleans and Pensacola storm.


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Robert West said:
I'll honestly take anything here in the Midlands of SC. I know a lot of people disagree with me on this board that live in this region. But I'll take an all out ice storm if that's all we can get. I enjoy the mass panic/excitement when you roll up into Food lion and everyone is talking about it. It's just exciting to me. I am a home owner also with two giant oak trees in my backyard, so I am sure I will regret everything I just said. Lol
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As @Webberweather53 has mentioned before, these big deep South events tend to have ice involved for someone historically. I don't think it's so many members from around the area versus myself, who know the horrors of no power for days and living in an older home without a means for power. From everything I've seen, many in the CAE area will take any and everything to do with Winter weather with happiness, lol.

@dsaur was around for the big one back in the day, and his stories about the warzone of pine tree sounds is horrific. Maybe he will post a bit about that in one of the wamby/banter threads if we get closer and it looks like we'll be facing it again.

I don't exactly like the look of the ensemble members for this region if you're looking for snow as the predominate ptype. We're many days out and things will change, but history shows that when this area starts to lose something, it's rare to come back.
 
BullCityWx said:
The SE ridge that’s there is the only thing keeping this from being a New Orleans and Pensacola storm.


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Click to expand...

Yeah, I know it helps to not have suppressed systems. I guess I'm just never concerned about suppression, I'm concerned with muting cold air and ticking storms north. When I see the western ridge so far west, my fear will be popped SE ridge. I know our -NAO may suppress it and it's happened this year, but it's just an element that makes me very nervous, especially at this lead time.
 
Definitely a NW trend on NAM huge for the mountains who stay cold


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I will be interested to see how the GFS and EURO handle things again today, like all of you...... Take a look on how much better the euro was overall on last nights 0z run vs the 12z run. If you keep the timing and players on the field, my money is on the euro, GFS timing well then we have more ice/rain issues and the deep south could get mostly shut out again. I am just looking for consistency at this point.

So, 00z map vs 12z map at 3 different time stamps

euro 0z 1.pngeuro 12z 1.pngeuro 0z 2.pngeuro 12z 2.pngeuro 0z 3.pngeuro 12z 3.png
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png
 
tramadoc said:
I think 72-84 hours out is a better time to start threads for “potential” storms.
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As much as I kind of agree I think there’s something special and fun about a thread for maybe a bigger type of storm potential to be put out a bit earlier. Big storms that cover a large area for us should be given the time they deserve and is definitely thread-able at this moment in time .. now for a system like the Sunday system where it’s marginal and it’s going to need some pixxy dust to make something special happen.. that type of storm I can see a thread be pulled on 2 or 3 days out when we can tell some people may have a chance but most probably not getting in the mix
 
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