Pattern Flaming Feb 2021

[NCSNOW]

6Z:


6z Unfolds few hours latter on old GFS

12 Canadian Op


THE 12 Z DOC STARTS DAY 8 unfolds to this by hr 240 and still going:

 

[deltadog03]

Timing is different with the euro and gfs. I am assuming we want the slower evolving solution the euro has in order to cut down on ice.?.


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Yes. If we speed it up, then chances we get ice or rain. Euro timing is nearly ideal.

 

[whatalife]

Yes. If we speed it up, then chances we get ice or rain. Euro timing is nearly ideal.

That’s what I thought. Maybe I’m just being a negative Nancy here and I have a feeling the GFS may be right in timing.


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[Webberweather53]

N America is gonna be sent straight into the freezer w/ a pattern like this

 

[Webberweather53]

This pattern still looks extremely good for board-wide overrunning even as we pass mid-month, maybe we can get more than one storm out of this?





Hit me baby one more time

?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

N America is gonna be sent straight into the freezer w/ a pattern like this

View attachment 71006

+PNA, just this time our source region is frozen ?

 

[Mitch West]

details this far out are useless, sure. But this is the look of pain for us South Carolina folks. I’ve seen this look many times. Fun next 7 days of weather watching ahead!

 

[Arcc]

N America is gonna be sent straight into the freezer w/ a pattern like this

View attachment 71006

All time weenie run for cold on a ensemble mean.

 

[lexxnchloe]

I didnt think the models were realistic showing snow in NC. more realistic this morning.

 

[Parker]

I’m obviously excited, but I sure hope it trends away from ice and towards snow

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

James Spann was discussing the possibility this morning. Mentioned the model agreement and ensemble support. Says its time to start raising the possibility if something happening toward the end of next week.

 

[Jessy89]

I noticed 06z models aren’t as good for next weeks storm. Looks like Gfs is trying to delay the cold a bit then the cold spills in after the system.


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[FallsLake]

Hey good morning everyone !! Fun to track these winter events with a great pattern !! When does next model come out ? Thank you

The NAM will come out ~9am. If you go to the Pivotal site, you can select on each model and then pull down different run times.
Models: GFS — Pivotal Weather

But here is a text listing:
All the times are EST and approximate.

GFS (out to 384 hours)
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM (out to 84 hours)
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

CMC (out to 180 hours)
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET (out to 72 hours)
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECMWF (EURO) (out to 240 hours)
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm

NOGAPS (out to 180 hours)
*00z = 2:00 AM
*12z = 2:00 PM

DGEX (out to 192 hours)
*00z = 5:15 AM
*12z = 5:15 PM

JMA (out to 144 hours)
*00z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 AM
*12z = Between 1:00 & 3:00 PM

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I noticed 06z models aren’t as good for next weeks storm. Looks like Gfs is trying to delay the cold a bit then the cold spills in after the system.


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I mean you can’t beat 12-21 inches of snow in a run lol

 

[TheBatman]

James Spann was discussing the possibility this morning. Mentioned the model agreement and ensemble support. Says its time to start raising the possibility if something happening toward the end of next week.

NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry and mild with a high in the 60s. The next wave/cold front will bring a chance of some scattered light rain Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by colder air Wednesday.

WINTER MISCHIEF??? Global modes are now showing signals for winter weather problems for Alabama at the end of next week, Thursday into Friday. Very cold (but shallow) air will creep into the state from the north, and the southern branch of the jet will push another wave into the region, pushing moist air from the Gulf over the shallow layer of cold air near the surface.

With this kind of scenario, the biggest problem is usually freezing rain instead of snow. Freezing rain is simply rain that falls in liquid form when surface temperatures are below 32 degrees. This in turn opens the door for ice accumulation on exposed objects. It is very important here to note that there is absolutely no skill in forecasting a winter storm 7-8 days in advance. This idea could totally go "off the table" in a few days... it is simply something to watch for now.

 

[Jessy89]

Your right but I was mainly speaking of the differences from 00z to 06z. And it did look like the cold wasn’t as impressive on the GFS. Eastern NC continues to sit really pretty


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[malak05]

I hate to be the therapist that has to deal this board mental break if all this falls apart later next week it's been awhile since we seen this sorta of agreement in the long range between models. This chat hasn't seen a actually legit good week of chasing Winter Weather either in awhile which is fun. It looks like we have 3 potential areas during the week to chase Saturday/Sunday, Tuesday/Wednesday still could come back, and Big Dog next weekend.

 

[Webberweather53]

The Siberian express is gonna try to pay us a visit in mid-February.

Can't ask for a colder pattern in N America than this, we just got to take advantage of it.

 

[whizrtr]

What do the accumulation maps look like for 6z GFS?

 

[Chazwin]

What do the accumulation maps look like for 6z GFS?

They weren’t crazy as yesterday’s weenie run, but they’re still significant. I wouldn’t really would not put too much stock into any op accumulation map right now. The important thing is there is still good agreement on the operationals for a storm in 11-14 timeframe and ensemble support, which has been showing a good storm signal for a week now, continues to grow.