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Pattern February Discussion

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GaWx said:
I just posted a brand new blog post on the correlation of MJO phase to SE winter temperatures. The surprising finding back when I did this research: inside the left side of the circle (or barely outside) is where you want it to be to have the best shot at lengthy SE cold! Keep in mind, however, that the MJO is just one of many guides to use to try to predict the upcoming weather. Just like is the case for any index, there are only tendencies associated with the MJO. It is a good tool but is far from a crystal ball. So, your best bet is to, of course, also consider several other indices at the same time.
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great post. here is the link for those using tapa http://blog.southernwx.com. The link is also posted on our FB and Twitter accounts

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GaWx said:
I just posted a brand new blog post on the correlation of MJO phase to SE winter temperatures. The surprising finding back when I did this research: inside the left side of the circle (or barely outside) is where you want it to be to have the best shot at lengthy SE cold! Keep in mind, however, that the MJO is just one of many guides to use to try to predict the upcoming weather. Just like is the case for any index, there are only tendencies associated with the MJO. It is a good tool but is far from a crystal ball. So, your best bet is to, of course, also consider several other indices at the same time.
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Thanks Larry! Really good read.


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The 12Z EPS has partially reverted back to what it was showing a few runs ago with a pretty decent -AO and near neutral to maybe slightly -NAO. It is colder than the 0Z run for sure. Not far to our NW lurks a large area of colder than normal 2/6-9.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has partially reverted back to what it was showing a few runs ago with a pretty decent -AO and near neutral to maybe slightly -NAO. It is colder than the 0Z run for sure. Not far to our NW lurks a large area of colder than normal 2/6-9.
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2/5 has been my published "start" date for a long time. I'm gonna find out how clear that crystal ball really is LOL
 
Close to total fantasy land, the GFS has some good backend snow with an Apps Runner in Alabama, Tennessee, and even Northwest Georgia. Now I don't know how true this is, but it's shown up on a couple of runs.
 
I know the storm depiction is going to be wrong with fantasy land, but I think the GFS is doing a better job at showing how I think the pattern is going to work in the long range today.
 
The GEFS mean looks strange out around Feb 6th, giving some snow to Charleston, SC and snow to other areas.
snod.conus.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
The GEFS mean looks strange out around Feb 6th, giving some snow to Charleston, SC and snow to other areas.
snod.conus.png
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It happens on day 11 - 12 and it's one member being silly.
 
Not a particularly big fan of the op GFS, but when it gets consistent, I do notice. That being said, it has been very stable at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z on what it's showing (at least down here) by and large for 3 days now. Although it shows nothing here worth paying any attention to, I'm impressed with stability of the outlook it's presenting. I really haven't had time to look at other locations, so I don't know if this holds for others, but it's worth noting, at least (or at least it seems!).
 
Got a question for whoever wants to answer it. The models are hinting at a potential MMW event. How long does it take before its shows on the pattern if one will occur? Euro especially is I think
 
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