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Pattern February Discussion

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if your roll the euro forward it's setting a nice pattern like what's on the gefs and eps

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Storm5 said:
don't understand what the fuss is . we all know days 7-10 are a wash with the ridge rolling on through . no big deal

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The fuss for me is I said 2/5 +/- was the start date - but not for warm. I'm stuck with what I said so I'm sorta fussin' at myself ....
 
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pcbjr said:
Th fuss for me is I said 2/5 +/- was the start date - but not for warm. I'm stuck with what I said so I'm sorta fussin' at myself ....
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Looks good if you roll the euro forward you will be dead on

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pcbjr said:
Far too kind (but thanks!)
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12z eps agrees with you
8de8231cdeaf3e28def692918a9406e4.jpg


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Folks, please put the weapons away. I want to feel safe when mentioning this. Also, Phil (pcbr) hinted at this, himself, by showing hour 360. The 12Z EPS 11-15 is not as cold as the 0Z EPS, especially to our NW. For those who still have their guns ready to fire, I will say right off the bat that this run could be off and that tonight's 0Z EPS could easily revert back to the colder solution. OK, I need to get out of here while I can lol. Bye!
 
GaWx said:
Folks, please put the weapons away. I want to feel safe when mentioning this. Also, Phil (pcbr) hinted at this, himself, by showing hour 360. The 12Z EPS 11-15 is not as cold as the 0Z EPS, especially to our NW. For those who still have their guns ready to fire, I will say right off the bat that this run could be off and that tonight's 0Z EPS could easily revert back to the colder solution. OK, I need to get out of here while I can lol. Bye!
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!!!!!!!!!!
 
pcbjr said:
!!!!!!!!!!
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The good news is that this evening's Euro weeklies will be based on the colder 0Z EPS goodness. Never mind that it is the older EPS run. Just be happy that's the run it is based on. I don't think folks would want it to project forward from that hour 12Z EPS 360 map Phil showed.
 
GaWx said:
Folks, please put the weapons away. I want to feel safe when mentioning this. Also, Phil (pcbr) hinted at this, himself, by showing hour 360. The 12Z EPS 11-15 is not as cold as the 0Z EPS, especially to our NW. For those who still have their guns ready to fire, I will say right off the bat that this run could be off and that tonight's 0Z EPS could easily revert back to the colder solution. OK, I need to get out of here while I can lol. Bye!
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it's not that bad really . shows a brief warmup then cools again .

that's all we can expect right now. Nothing is going to lock in . Lots of ups and downs . should be fun

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That low at 264 on the 18z GFS should drop down into the Gulf according to the 0z EPS...I haven't looked at the 12z EPS yet.

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GaWx said:
Folks, please put the weapons away. I want to feel safe when mentioning this. Also, Phil (pcbr) hinted at this, himself, by showing hour 360. The 12Z EPS 11-15 is not as cold as the 0Z EPS, especially to our NW. For those who still have their guns ready to fire, I will say right off the bat that this run could be off and that tonight's 0Z EPS could easily revert back to the colder solution. OK, I need to get out of here while I can lol. Bye!
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Nice! Fire your shot at us and Run...LOL!


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Sigh. Why does my gut tell me...just from seeing how the pattern has behaved that our best chances for wintry weather were during the early January cold spell and then something perhaps popping up out of nowhere between now and mid feb. Of course haven't looked ahead much but... kinda fruitless lol.
 
Nice look setting up after the 7th on the 12z EPS. We should have another storm coming up after the 5th-8th system. According to the 12z EPS. Something looks like it will give.

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The biggest thing we're going to have to worry about in the long haul after that cutter in the long range is if whether a part of that split trop PV moves over Alaska. If it does, winter is effectively over. If not then I bet we'll have a storm to track in the range that I'm thinking of.
 
If anyone wants a reason to listen to old Neil Young tunes, pack it it, and buy a pickup - here's your ticket (though I'm not in the buying mode myself)
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Man, that trough that's digging over TX on the 12z EPS looks so good at the end of the run. Blocking going on to the NE, if there will be a storm, it would amplify.

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pcbjr said:
If anyone wants a reason to listen to old Neil Young tunes, pack it it, and buy a pickup - here's your ticket (though I'm not in the buying mode myself)
Screen_Shot_2017_01_26_at_6_47_30_PM.png
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Those indicies have looked like that all winter, why would they change now!? It's more like time for a Metallica classic-"Hit the Lights" or Seek and Destroy" both apply to this winter to come!
 
let's be real about the weeklies . we've said it for YEAR they suck even when they show a cold pattern , they suck

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Storm5 said:
let's be real about the weeklies . we've said it for YEAR they suck even when they show a cold pattern , they suck

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Well we better hope that's just one bad run b/c as they are...They suck bad! LOL!


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Euro Weeklies aren't THAT bad. Sustained +0.2-0.5C above normal for 7-day means, not a furnace. 46-day Snowfall mean actually went up for NC

Jonathan Wall
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
Euro Weeklies aren't THAT bad. Sustained +0.2-0.5C above normal for 7-day means, not a furnace. 46-day Snowfall mean actually went up for NC

Jonathan Wall
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they were pretty bad . good new ls they suck IMO and I've said it for years . but it was an ugly run compared to previous runs . of course we can pick out a week or two that isn't horrible

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