• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern February Discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.
About to be a bit nipply out!
 
Things possibly getting interesting around the timeframe I was expecting. About time, more and more like Spring here everyday. Just hope it comes to fruition! Fab Feb ftw!
 
DLI4SCwx said:
Things possibly getting interesting around the timeframe I was expecting. About time, more and more like Spring here everyday. Just hope it comes to fruition! Fab Feb ftw!
Click to expand...
Feb 3-5 will snow in Charlotte

Sent from my VS870 4G using Tapatalk
 
Something interesting around hour 300. Goofy is stupid cold at the end of the run.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
c27253bd7dd0c69df8d553dacb7da63c.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
 
pcbjr said:
At the risk of starting another ruckus - Me too!
Click to expand...

You aren't starting a ruckus, keep posting you're thoughts Phil.... they are greatly appreciated. Besides it's nice having an attorney on here never know when that might come in handy ;) Lol
 
SD said:
c27253bd7dd0c69df8d553dacb7da63c.jpg


Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
The EPS sure looks like dog doo for days 10-15, for sure! Gonna have to have a great last half to Feb to pull off that cfsv2 to verify!
 
Tarheel1 said:
The EPS sure looks like dog doo for days 10-15, for sure! Gonna have to have a great last half to Feb to pull off that cfsv2 to verify!
Click to expand...
lol you must have checked out the board of doom before coming here. the eps isn't that bad not to mention it's been all over the place post day 10

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
^Plus Mack is a natural pessimist at least IMO although he has ended up being correct on a number of occasions. Blind squirrel?

Latest MJO two week forecast consensus remains rather favorable with it headed for the circle within the next couple of days. This is followed by a counterclockwise turn taking it in the general direction of the left side of the circle or just outside by the end of the two week forecast, which would then be a favorable for SE cold MJO fwiw.

Latest GEFS NAO remains moderately positive.

Latest GEFS AO day 14 has turned back moderately negative. However, the GEFS day 14 bias averaged over the last four months has been a ridiculously bad ~-1.00! So, we need an even more negative AO day 14 forecast before I'd start leaning toward it going negative then. Regardless, today's more -AO day 14 forecast is moderately encouraging. The 0Z EPS' AO forecast late in week 2 is not as negative as yesterday but it still is negative. However, it has switched from yesterday's -NAO to a pretty neutral NAO in late week 2.

Latest GEFS PNA forecast remains moderately positive.
 
Last edited:
One thing that I don't think can be debated is that the GFS suite has had a really bad cold bias in recent weeks in the E US. I mean awful! The Euro/EPS has been much better as a result. So, I'd advise we take future cold E US GEFS with a huge grain of salt when the EPS is not cold. Perhaps a good portion of this cold bias can be tied to its ridiculous -AO bias, which has averaged a whopping -1.0 at day 14 over the last four months as noted in my prior post!
 
GaWx said:
One thing that I don't think can be debated is that the GFS suite has had a really bad cold bias in recent weeks in the E US. I mean awful! The Euro/EPS has been much better as a result. So, I'd advise we take future cold E US GEFS with a huge grain of salt when the EPS is not cold. Perhaps a good portion of this cold bias can be tied to its ridiculous -AO bias, which has averaged a whopping -1.0 at day 14 over the last four months as noted in my prior post!
Click to expand...

Enthusiasm Curbed.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Talking about Clipper in the Jan thread, and then the rest of the run here.
 
This run isn't very entertaining but IMO, it's more realistic than what I saw on 0z. On the 0z I saw a big cutter in the long range not change the pattern for some reason. On this one, it brings back the eastern trough, though it's not as sharp.

(although of course it doesn't last long for some reason)
 
No thanks. Falling right in that sweet spot time-frame of FEB. :|

fdd.png
 
There's a gulf disturbance right at the end of the run but since there's no strong eastern trough it causes an ice storm in the Carolinas and all rain elsewhere.
 
Yep, who knows. Here's the next frame. Not that it matters this far out:
gfdfgsfsd.png
 
Instead of beating myself over the head, I'LL just go with the flo. Still January.
 
I want to see the EPS show SE cold again before I get too excited about the prospects of cold returning to the SE US in February. I hope it does so in time for the more favorable winter storm climo of 2nd into 3rd week of Feb. The GFS/GEFS is and has been such a cold tease this winter. The EPS has been showing why the Euro suite remains King. Until the EPS gets cold, don't get sucked in by cold GEFS 11-15 day runs.
 
This certainly won't be the final solution but it gets at the idea that I'm thinking of. If there's going to be a big winter storm, I bet it's in between February 9th-15th. Might be a good upper south winter storm before then, but this is the time frame I'd pay close attention to.
 
Storm5 said:
with your luck I'm gonna swap your avatar and steal yours

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

I have another one and an even better one I'll put up. Oh and i think you've already seen it


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I want to see the EPS show SE cold again before I get too excited about the prospects of cold returning to the SE US in February. I hope it does so in time for the more favorable winter storm climo of 2nd into 3rd week of Feb. The GFS/GEFS is and has been such a cold tease this winter. The EPS has been showing why the Euro suite remains King. Until the EPS gets cold, don't get sucked in by cold GEFS 11-15 day runs.
Click to expand...
I agree with everything you said. However , the eps hasn't been great in days 11-15 this winter either. It seems to have a SER bias that almost always becomes muted as we roll forward .

I'm with you on the whole Euro
/EPS are king . People have been trashing the euro lately yet it still has the highest 500mb verification scores .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Pretty good storm signal on the GEFS for the fantasy storm. Over 1 inch mean. I'm guessing one ensemble has 20 inches and the others have nothing. Can anyone confirm?
 
I just posted a brand new blog post on the correlation of MJO phase to SE winter temperatures. The surprising finding back when I did this research: inside the left side of the circle (or barely outside) is where you want it to be to have the best shot at lengthy SE cold! Keep in mind, however, that the MJO is just one of many guides to use to try to predict the upcoming weather. Just like is the case for any index, there are only tendencies associated with the MJO. It is a good tool but is far from a crystal ball. So, your best bet is to, of course, also consider several other indices at the same time.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top