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Pattern February Discussion

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Yep, who knows. Here's the next frame. Not that it matters this far out:
gfdfgsfsd.png
 
Instead of beating myself over the head, I'LL just go with the flo. Still January.
 
I want to see the EPS show SE cold again before I get too excited about the prospects of cold returning to the SE US in February. I hope it does so in time for the more favorable winter storm climo of 2nd into 3rd week of Feb. The GFS/GEFS is and has been such a cold tease this winter. The EPS has been showing why the Euro suite remains King. Until the EPS gets cold, don't get sucked in by cold GEFS 11-15 day runs.
 
This certainly won't be the final solution but it gets at the idea that I'm thinking of. If there's going to be a big winter storm, I bet it's in between February 9th-15th. Might be a good upper south winter storm before then, but this is the time frame I'd pay close attention to.
 
Storm5 said:
with your luck I'm gonna swap your avatar and steal yours

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I have another one and an even better one I'll put up. Oh and i think you've already seen it


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GaWx said:
I want to see the EPS show SE cold again before I get too excited about the prospects of cold returning to the SE US in February. I hope it does so in time for the more favorable winter storm climo of 2nd into 3rd week of Feb. The GFS/GEFS is and has been such a cold tease this winter. The EPS has been showing why the Euro suite remains King. Until the EPS gets cold, don't get sucked in by cold GEFS 11-15 day runs.
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I agree with everything you said. However , the eps hasn't been great in days 11-15 this winter either. It seems to have a SER bias that almost always becomes muted as we roll forward .

I'm with you on the whole Euro
/EPS are king . People have been trashing the euro lately yet it still has the highest 500mb verification scores .

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Pretty good storm signal on the GEFS for the fantasy storm. Over 1 inch mean. I'm guessing one ensemble has 20 inches and the others have nothing. Can anyone confirm?
 
I just posted a brand new blog post on the correlation of MJO phase to SE winter temperatures. The surprising finding back when I did this research: inside the left side of the circle (or barely outside) is where you want it to be to have the best shot at lengthy SE cold! Keep in mind, however, that the MJO is just one of many guides to use to try to predict the upcoming weather. Just like is the case for any index, there are only tendencies associated with the MJO. It is a good tool but is far from a crystal ball. So, your best bet is to, of course, also consider several other indices at the same time.
 
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