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Pattern February Discussion

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EastAtlwx said:
It's the placement of the low on 06z that is the problem, not the strength.. in fact, the strength actually helps areas that do get the snow...
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I think that it actually would need to have a more negative tilt to it in order to get it to dig further south before tilting neutral to positive.
gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

If that looked that way at least 300 miles or so eastward that would be money.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think that it actually would need to have a more negative tilt to it in order to get it to dig further south before tilting neutral to positive.
gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

If that looked that way at least 300 miles or so eastward that would be money.
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You mean positive? Lol
 
Larry will like the 00z eps . It's trended alot colder post day ten which is a good sign . Seems to be playing to its ser bias post day ten only to back off as time rolls forward
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Storm5 said:
Larry will like the 00z eps . It's trended alot colder post day ten which is a good sign . Seems to be playing to its ser bias post day ten only to back off as time rolls forward
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How does the FEB 5-6 timeframe look on the EPS for the storm that the GFS has been showing?
 
Storm5 said:
Larry will like the 00z eps . It's trended alot colder post day ten which is a good sign . Seems to be playing to its ser bias post day ten only to back off as time rolls forward
9b076c89ad2575636e2962c3ef264c14.jpg
f8a513877452b07de86b2d21b58449ef.jpg


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Well the weeklies should be decent tonight if that's the case...


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The system that comes in 4th-6th will most likely cut cause there is a ridge. Also, the GFS has been consistent, showing it cutting. The system that comes down 10th-11th is the one we'll have to watch. Some ridgeing builds back out west. There is still some ridgeing over the SE but if that ridge builds stronger out west this will push the SER away. Also, the 12z GFS has a strong Arctic high coming down which should help to push the ridge upward out west allowing the system not to cut.

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Storm5 said:
huh? the 12z gefs is extremely active days 8-15

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You are correct! I must have been looking at an old run. I went all the way out with no snow reflection below Maryland/Kentucky. This looks much better!
snod.conus.png
 
for those complaining about a gfs op the 12z gefs looks NOTHING LIKE the gfs op

12z gfs op
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12z gefs
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Still looks poop. Something's gotta give eventually.
 
The trend is very clear on all ensembles. A cold stormy pattern starting around the first week of February . I've fired up for the 5th-15th. Fab Feb is on the way

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Damn the 12z GEFS holds lots of promise . huge storm signal the 5th-8th

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Looking at the 0z EPS, looks like we definitely need to watch the 8th-12th period (approximately, timing will change). EPS has a stronger ridge building out west with some good strong blocking over northwestern Atlantic.

With the first system in Feb. EPS agrees that it will cut. The low could come further south, give or take.

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Storm5 said:
Damn the 12z GEFS holds lots of promise . huge storm signal the 5th-8th

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I'm with you 100% The 5th has been my target date for weeks, looking at everything (think I said so somewhere in a couple posts way back)! Now we just gotta be right - I hate eating my own words! LOL
 
Storm5 said:
e10 is a nasty ice storm verbatim. very little snow

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Hmmm, I'm not sure where that's coming from, not unless that strong surface HP at the end of the run of the GFS slips off to the NE while that SER hangs on. That is a possibility, but since we're looking past hr 192 a lot of things will change of course.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Hmmm, I'm not sure where that's coming from, not unless that strong surface HP at the end of the run of the GFS slips off to the NE while that SER hangs on. That is a possibility, but since we're looking past hr 192 a lot of things will change of course.

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looking at again it's mostly sleet . with a few inches of backside snow. it would be an epic storm . e 10 has another massive storm day 15 lol.

hell at this point I'll take a huge ice storm . I don't care , just one more system

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12z GEFS look really good. I'll take that storm signal and possible cold any day...


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According to the EPS, that 2nd storm 8th-12th will not cut. The EPS has the low coming up from the Gulf with that Arctic HP further south. GFS should trend that way as well.

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12z Euro is digging down slightly further than 12z GFS. Looks like north GA will still get some flurries, even the northern suburbs of ATL. Some sprinkles as well.

Edit: Oopss, move this post to the clipper thread. Didn't realize I was in the Feb. thread.

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don't understand what the fuss is . we all know days 7-10 are a wash with the ridge rolling on through . no big deal

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Storm5 said:
don't understand what the fuss is . we all know days 7-10 are a wash with the ridge rolling on through . no big deal

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Yup, no big deal during that period. Its the period after that is what we have to watch.

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