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Pattern February Discussion

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GaWx said:
I just posted a brand new blog post on the correlation of MJO phase to SE winter temperatures. The surprising finding back when I did this research: inside the left side of the circle (or barely outside) is where you want it to be to have the best shot at lengthy SE cold! Keep in mind, however, that the MJO is just one of many guides to use to try to predict the upcoming weather. Just like is the case for any index, there are only tendencies associated with the MJO. It is a good tool but is far from a crystal ball. So, your best bet is to, of course, also consider several other indices at the same time.
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great post. here is the link for those using tapa http://blog.southernwx.com. The link is also posted on our FB and Twitter accounts

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GaWx said:
I just posted a brand new blog post on the correlation of MJO phase to SE winter temperatures. The surprising finding back when I did this research: inside the left side of the circle (or barely outside) is where you want it to be to have the best shot at lengthy SE cold! Keep in mind, however, that the MJO is just one of many guides to use to try to predict the upcoming weather. Just like is the case for any index, there are only tendencies associated with the MJO. It is a good tool but is far from a crystal ball. So, your best bet is to, of course, also consider several other indices at the same time.
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Thanks Larry! Really good read.


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The 12Z EPS has partially reverted back to what it was showing a few runs ago with a pretty decent -AO and near neutral to maybe slightly -NAO. It is colder than the 0Z run for sure. Not far to our NW lurks a large area of colder than normal 2/6-9.
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has partially reverted back to what it was showing a few runs ago with a pretty decent -AO and near neutral to maybe slightly -NAO. It is colder than the 0Z run for sure. Not far to our NW lurks a large area of colder than normal 2/6-9.
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2/5 has been my published "start" date for a long time. I'm gonna find out how clear that crystal ball really is LOL
 
Close to total fantasy land, the GFS has some good backend snow with an Apps Runner in Alabama, Tennessee, and even Northwest Georgia. Now I don't know how true this is, but it's shown up on a couple of runs.
 
I know the storm depiction is going to be wrong with fantasy land, but I think the GFS is doing a better job at showing how I think the pattern is going to work in the long range today.
 
The GEFS mean looks strange out around Feb 6th, giving some snow to Charleston, SC and snow to other areas.
snod.conus.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
The GEFS mean looks strange out around Feb 6th, giving some snow to Charleston, SC and snow to other areas.
snod.conus.png
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It happens on day 11 - 12 and it's one member being silly.
 
Not a particularly big fan of the op GFS, but when it gets consistent, I do notice. That being said, it has been very stable at 0Z, 6Z, 12Z and 18Z on what it's showing (at least down here) by and large for 3 days now. Although it shows nothing here worth paying any attention to, I'm impressed with stability of the outlook it's presenting. I really haven't had time to look at other locations, so I don't know if this holds for others, but it's worth noting, at least (or at least it seems!).
 
Got a question for whoever wants to answer it. The models are hinting at a potential MMW event. How long does it take before its shows on the pattern if one will occur? Euro especially is I think
 
Golferwhotries said:
MMW. It's a midwinter warming advertised on models. Big one if pans out, but no guarantee it effects us.
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You have me stumped on that one (MMW) - but haven't we more or less been in a mid-winter warming since November by and large LOL (the 1st week or so of Jan notwithstanding)?
 
I think the other word for it is strat warming. I can't really explain it except as a "cold dumping onto North America" event.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I think the other word for it is strat warming. I can't really explain it except as a "cold dumping onto North America" event.
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That's what I asked - SSW - if so, the time lag is generally 14 -21 days (depending on many variables)
 
Golferwhotries said:
MMW. It's a midwinter warming advertised on models. Big one if pans out, but no guarantee it effects us.
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Same as a SSW! Sudden Stratospheric Warming??
 
pcbjr said:
That's what I asked - SSW - if so, the time lag is generally 14 -21 days (depending on many variables)
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In that case, someone fire up the Marvelous March thread! March 1960 redux incoming !! Delayed but not denied! Backloaded winter coming!
 
Nah they're not the same thing, minor SSWEs happen more frequently and involve significant slowing of the polar night jet while major SSWEs are less frequent and more intense and occur when the momentum imparted by upwelling tropospheric Rossby waves is enough to cause the polar night jet to reverse directions. Major events usually lead to more intense and prolonged high latitude blocking episodes and are more likely to result in colder wx in the US, although they don't guarantee it
 
Time to start looking at the NAM for that clipper bomb !
 
The storm around the Feb 5-6th period still looks interesting. However, it looks too strong on the 6Z and would become a severe weather event. If it trends southward more, it could get more interesting.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The storm around the Feb 5-6th period still looks interesting. However, it looks too strong on the 6Z and would become a severe weather event. If it trends southward more, it could get more interesting.
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Yeah, definitely a improvement from 00z's Lakes cutter to 06z's app cutter. This is going to have to trend way south for me to be interested at my location because of my latitude and the tendency for models to trend north several hundred miles in the short to medium range..
 
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It's the placement of the low on 06z that is the problem, not the strength.. in fact, the strength actually helps areas that do get the snow...
 
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