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Pattern February Discussion

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The weeklies aren't ideal but I don't think they are a disaster

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Storm5 said:
he is quoting

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Good - Jon knows his stuff and I am encouraging him over here!

(he's also a friend so I wanted to make sure someone wasn't covering!)
 
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I'm just now skimming through the weeklies now, their not bad at all. I like to come up with predictions 2 weeks in advanced. But even then, the models start to lose skill. It gives us a rough idea. I'm conservative about the weeklies beyond 2 weeks. The surface maps are interesting, specially 7th-14th.

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1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
 
GaWx said:
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
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Leave it to Larry to bring calm to the unrest! LOL!


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GaWx said:
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
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Thank you!
 
GaWx said:
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
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he said he is worried , rattled I believe was the word. When he gets concerned after going all in its serious , for him .

of course he went crazy cold for Feb. There is Zero chance his February forecast verifies.

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FWIW - Here's a copy of 1 page from DT's winter forecast published back in the fall - he may a have time machine LOL

Screen_Shot_2017_01_26_at_9_37_01_PM.png
 
whatalife said:
Leave it to Larry to bring calm to the unrest! LOL!


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Hehe, I figured I needed to after saying I was optimistic about the weeklies because they were based on the nice looking 0Z EPS. So much for that idea but again they're not really bad either.
 
GaWx said:
1) I have seen no indication or his Twitter that JB is getting ready to o throw in the towel. Is this for real? Is he saying this to WxBell subscribers?
2) Euro weeklies: Keep in mind that week 3 starts way out there with day 19 in the Thu run. Just how dependable do people think what basically is an EPS mean for days 19-25 is going to be? Verifications are all over the place. Sometimes it is good but often is is a total miss. And that's just week 3. I'm not even going to talk about weeks 4-6 lol!
By the way fwiw ( little), the 850's are near normal....no torch be any means. Also, yes the two meter temps are 2-3 F above normal. But keep in mind the Euro has a bit of a warm bias.
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Larry, He said if Euro MJO and weeklies were right? His forecast was in trouble.... But he's not changing his thoughts yet, he wanted to see this for a few days. said may be different tomorrow. I think he said it kinda didn't make sense with it self? I think I got this right. lol. He's concerned about the look on the JMA also....

I have not yet changed my ideas as I wish to watch this for a while, as up through the first 10 days of February , the ideas that have gotten us here have had merit. But I did not see this coming as all the things I have been showing you, suggested that the seasonal variation which usually argues for the trough further east would carry the day. The Euro says no ( it does try to bring it back in March) but the warmer idea its implying here would break the back of winter, and my forecast.



So I have alot of work in front of me, since the work in back of me, if this is right, is for naught once past Feb 10. I am not changing my ideas, I am saying to you I see all this that is plainly different from what I believe.
 
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Golferwhotries said:
I'm curious why models and ensembles haven't adjusted to this ssw event that's underway from my understanding? Just curious
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so they very well could be . A ssw does not always mean favorable results by any stretch. Realistically a ssw could cause HORRIBLE downstream results for the US

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In fact, I described one option with the PV that would effectively wrap it up on winter if it happened.
 
the little disturbance around the 3rd will need to be watched for tennessee and NC

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BIG FROSTY said:
Larry, He said if Euro MJO and weeklies were right? His forecast was in trouble.... But he's not changing his thoughts yet, he wanted to see this for a few days. said may be different tomorrow. I think he said it kinda didn't make sense with it self? I think I got this right. lol. He's concerned about the look on the JMA also....

I have not yet changed my ideas as I wish to watch this for a while, as up through the first 10 days of February , the ideas that have gotten us here have had merit. But I did not see this coming as all the things I have been showing you, suggested that the seasonal variation which usually argues for the trough further east would carry the day. The Euro says no ( it does try to bring it back in March) but the warmer idea its implying here would break the back of winter, and my forecast.



So I have alot of work in front of me, since the work in back of me, if this is right, is for naught once past Feb 10. I am not changing my ideas, I am saying to you I see all this that is plainly different from what I believe.
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Big Frosty,
Thanks. JB is right to be concerned since he has much of the eastern US colder and snowier than normal for DJF averaged out. It is pretty doubtful that he'll get that to verify even with a moderately cold Feb. I'd gladly take a moderately cold Feb.
 
one day the gfs will be great again . what a sh**** model. it's not even close just 6 hours apart

18z gfs
43bd2fdeb70ab7adac7bcbb988af72b0.jpg


00z gfs
2261ffed1f1c40ca96faaa5e0c2aa647.jpg


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Storm5 said:
one day the gfs will be great again . what a sh**** model. it's not even close just 6 hours apart

18z gfs
43bd2fdeb70ab7adac7bcbb988af72b0.jpg


00z gfs
2261ffed1f1c40ca96faaa5e0c2aa647.jpg


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Guess winter is over! (Sarcasm) Man that's bad...LOL!


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Wait a minute...so the lines there are suggesting there should at least be a slight trough...and yet this shows as a warm signal? Goofy...its time to lay off of the alcohol.

Seriously though with how volatile the long term situation could be, wild swings shouldn't be surprising on the models. We could pretty easily end up with a situation where winter is over, or we could end up with a situation in which winter is on...even if it doesn't mean a widespread winter storm necessarily.

If you don't like the GFS, wait one run, it's guaranteed to change.
 
Don't fret guys. My Japanese Magnolia trees bloomed this week. They always get zapped with a freeze when they pop out so early.
 
I wasn't up for the 0z last night. The 0z is a much better run than 06z.

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I will say that I'm a little discouraged after seeing so much promise, and now it just seems like it's either delayed only a day or two or not showing up at all.
 
deltadog03 said:
I will say that I'm a little discouraged after seeing so much promise, and now it just seems like it's either delayed only a day or two or not showing up at all.
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I would agree...Not impression w/any of the runs or their ensemble since last night....


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deltadog03 said:
I will say that I'm a little discouraged after seeing so much promise, and now it just seems like it's either delayed only a day or two or not showing up at all.
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I don't understand all the negativity? We aren't even into February yet !? Yes the look on the weeklies sucked, but the weeklies suck themselves! From middle Feb on! When it's Feb 15th, and everything looks like this, then it's panic at the disco!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I don't understand all the negativity? We aren't even into February yet !? Yes the look on the weeklies sucked, but the weeklies suck themselves! From middle Feb on! When it's Feb 15th, and everything looks like this, then it's panic at the disco!
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LOL!


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Tarheel1 said:
I don't understand all the negativity? We aren't even into February yet !? Yes the look on the weeklies sucked, but the weeklies suck themselves! From middle Feb on! When it's Feb 15th, and everything looks like this, then it's panic at the disco!
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large.jpg
 
I'm not trying to be negative, I'm just pointing out the obvious that yes we're going to see some cold shots but let's face it we thought this was going to be a lot better and at this point it keeps getting pushed back and or delayed, so yeah there's a little concerned there.
 
I believe we still have plenty of opportunities, but I also thought we would see a little bit better of a chance where we might see some sustained cold, and right now it looks very transient. Either way, we're definitely going to have opportunities I'm just saying that I thought it would be a little bit better for a bigger block of time
 
And just to be clear, this is the southeast United States. We don't get a huge block of cold a lot of the time, and even in a transient pattern we can still see snow storms and Ice storms. So yes, I don't think we're going to see a big sustain Cold Shot but it doesn't mean we can't see snow and ice around here
 
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