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Pattern February Discussion

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SD said:
I guess everyone gave up and no one saw day 10 on the Euro. So sad
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I'm going to take a look at it soon. The data takes a little bit longer on Accu pro.

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Snowdoc said:
Just looked at Euro with the bad maps, still looks too warm verbatim but if we get a stronger high in New England looks like CAD areas could score.
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Yep...its 34-36 across Wake County during the event. Wouldn't take much. I think we might actually score with this one...no scientific reason this time just a guess
 
SD said:
Yep...its 34-36 across Wake County during the event. Wouldn't take much. I think we might actually score with this one...no scientific reason this time just a guess
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Yep NC might do well if that look is right...


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Scratching my head a bit on this one

GZ_PN_240_0000.gif
 
pcbjr said:
Scratching my head a bit on this one

GZ_PN_240_0000.gif
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it's not a horrible look ,verbatim it's too warm. NW sections could make that work and cad areas could as well . that track sucks for gerogia and SC

too bad it's day ten and will be gone the next run

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Storm5 said:
it's not a horrible look ,verbatim it's too warm. NW sections could make that work and cad areas could as well . that track sucks for gerogia and SC

too bad it's day ten and will be gone the next run

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Don't bring that bad juju in here playa.... ;)
 
Storm5 said:
it's not a horrible look ,verbatim it's too warm. NW sections could make that work and cad areas could as well . that track sucks for gerogia and SC

too bad it's day ten and will be gone the next run

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It'll find a way to cut...


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Storm5 said:
it's not a horrible look ,verbatim it's too warm. NW sections could make that work and cad areas could as well . that track sucks for gerogia and SC

too bad it's day ten and will be gone the next run

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Storm5 said:
it's not a horrible look ,verbatim it's too warm. NW sections could make that work and cad areas could as well . that track sucks for gerogia and SC
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Yeah - that's what's got me head scratching - the placement of that low - a day before it looks to be on the Rio Grande
 
Storm5 said:
it's not a horrible look ,verbatim it's too warm. NW sections could make that work and cad areas could as well . that track sucks for gerogia and SC

too bad it's day ten and will be gone the next run

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#Facts


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pcbjr said:
Scratching my head a bit on this one

GZ_PN_240_0000.gif
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The 0z Euro EPS has that low too, but it has it way further north. I was thinking that low will cut based off of 500mb heights from what I looked at last. I'll have to look at the updated heights.

System's after this one is the one we'll have to watch. I'm not expecting a lot with this system because it will be warm during this period.

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SD said:
I guess everyone gave up and no one saw day 10 on the Euro. So sad
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Yay! A NC special, that will trend to a Roxboro special soon! :)
 
Shawn said:
Is there another model that handles it better in your opinion?
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Virtually ever other model, especially the EPS is better than the GFS at nearly all leads and initial locations because the GFS suite almost always insists an MJO pulse will emerge into the Western Hemisphere in the medium-long range (& it's wrong 99% of the time and too fast 99.99999% of the time). However, if the MJO has amplitude in the Pacific, the GFS tends to perform okay since a) simple extrapolation of an ongoing pulse there puts it in the Western hemisphere anyway and b) the western hemisphere is generally less convectively active than the Indian Ocean and Western Hemisphere (due to south America/Africa landmasses and adjacent cooler water) (OLR tracers of the MJO often break down in the central Pacific), hence b-1) it's convective schemes are of relatively less importance here and b-2) the MJO moves much faster in the western hemisphere (as most global models erroneously depict to begin w/) because there's less convection. Convection is typically juxtaposed within and in the wake of an equatorial wave axis, and hence distorts the wave structures of the myriad convectively-coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) that comprise the MJO, causing it to slow down, therefore more convection = slower CCEW speeds & vis versa... Nearly all models oth tend to have a dampening bias w/ the MJO, treat it as a moist-CCKW (thus are almost always too fast, possibly due to their handling of stratiform precipitation & poor representation of its top-heavy warm core structure) and the EPS tends to have issues in the vicinity of the Maritime Continent, the so-called "Barrier Effect" still seems to enforce a probable bias in the model to lose the MJO over this area of the globe
 
If the ridge on the west coast is taller / stronger, that could help this continue its southward trend
 
Nah, I don't think we'll see much with that first system in the way of winter weather. It's after the 5th-10th time period I think we'll see a better chance at winter weather.

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I'll be surprised if that moisture underneath doesn't edge up into some Ga Sun. If the 18z doesn't show it, I'd expect it by the 12z tomorrow. T
 
Yeah the eps really likes Feb 5th -10th . At least we are starting to see hints of a potential window.

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Storm5 said:
Yeah the eps really likes Feb 5th -10th . At least we are starting to see hints of a potential window.

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That Ryan Maue, he's JB's partner, correct?? Then expect the opposite!
 
Yeah, well Eric's post with actual data to back up his suggestions and ideas is a lot better than 95% of posts on various weather forums.

If you read over it slowly and try to process it a couple times, it'll become clear. Also he even gives the abbreviations and what they stand for.

I will go ahead and say if someone wants to go to war with his posts or thoughts, good luck. You'll lose. Unlike other places, we won't discourage him from posting here, since his posts are useful and he's a cool dude.
 
Shawn said:
Yeah, well Eric's post with actual data to back up his suggestions and ideas is a lot better than 95% of posts on various weather forums.

If you read over it slowly and try to process it a couple times, it'll become clear. Also he even gives the abbreviations and what they stand for.
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I wasn't being negative. Really. I read it over many times (as I do all of what he publishes) and for the life of me could not get to a "conclusion". Hope all is cool!

Edit - He is a gold mine (or gold mind) - I just got lost and was asking for some "bottom line" so It could be in perspective. I'm just not that smart ....
 
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Stormlover said:
Heavy "precip" Feb 4/5
16402073_1567854989908820_325767711_n.png
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This looks like its based off of the weeklies which is what I'm going by and the EPS/Euro. GFS will be catching on, it has the idea on the 12z run of the GFS.

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FINALLY. GFS showing a storm.
 
Let's slow down that HP and get a couple changes at H5, and we have a potential board-wide event.
 
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