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Pattern February Discussion

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EastAtlwx said:
It's the placement of the low on 06z that is the problem, not the strength.. in fact, the strength actually helps areas that do get the snow...
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I think that it actually would need to have a more negative tilt to it in order to get it to dig further south before tilting neutral to positive.
gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

If that looked that way at least 300 miles or so eastward that would be money.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think that it actually would need to have a more negative tilt to it in order to get it to dig further south before tilting neutral to positive.
gfs_z500_vort_us_42.png

If that looked that way at least 300 miles or so eastward that would be money.
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You mean positive? Lol
 
Larry will like the 00z eps . It's trended alot colder post day ten which is a good sign . Seems to be playing to its ser bias post day ten only to back off as time rolls forward
9b076c89ad2575636e2962c3ef264c14.jpg
f8a513877452b07de86b2d21b58449ef.jpg


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Storm5 said:
Larry will like the 00z eps . It's trended alot colder post day ten which is a good sign . Seems to be playing to its ser bias post day ten only to back off as time rolls forward
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How does the FEB 5-6 timeframe look on the EPS for the storm that the GFS has been showing?
 
Storm5 said:
Larry will like the 00z eps . It's trended alot colder post day ten which is a good sign . Seems to be playing to its ser bias post day ten only to back off as time rolls forward
9b076c89ad2575636e2962c3ef264c14.jpg
f8a513877452b07de86b2d21b58449ef.jpg


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Well the weeklies should be decent tonight if that's the case...


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The system that comes in 4th-6th will most likely cut cause there is a ridge. Also, the GFS has been consistent, showing it cutting. The system that comes down 10th-11th is the one we'll have to watch. Some ridgeing builds back out west. There is still some ridgeing over the SE but if that ridge builds stronger out west this will push the SER away. Also, the 12z GFS has a strong Arctic high coming down which should help to push the ridge upward out west allowing the system not to cut.

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Storm5 said:
huh? the 12z gefs is extremely active days 8-15

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You are correct! I must have been looking at an old run. I went all the way out with no snow reflection below Maryland/Kentucky. This looks much better!
snod.conus.png
 
for those complaining about a gfs op the 12z gefs looks NOTHING LIKE the gfs op

12z gfs op
98f630bda5e14104accffe3ac8b002bf.jpg


12z gefs
45ca3b004a370c978066d4ae091043f8.jpg


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Still looks poop. Something's gotta give eventually.
 
The trend is very clear on all ensembles. A cold stormy pattern starting around the first week of February . I've fired up for the 5th-15th. Fab Feb is on the way

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Damn the 12z GEFS holds lots of promise . huge storm signal the 5th-8th

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