It seems like the fast flow is the culprit to a lot of our problems as well as models staying consistent for any long period of time. Hoping the EPO can at least help us out or that we can get some blocking to do the trick next month.
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Pattern February Discussion
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This MJO battle should be epic to watch
ATLwxfan
Member
IMO we are done with realistic winter weather chances in the Southeast though I don't think we will necessarily torch. It'll be two back to back lousy winters for some of us but eventually our luck will change provided that this is not "the new normal".
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Lol. The doom and gloom posts come out when the weather is boring.
Tapatalk is the most annoying app man has ever created. We can't help it. I do know our other admins are using it with no notification issues though.
Anyone else?
whatalife
Moderator
Yes! B/c historical winter wx only increases in February for most on this board...So punting winter on January 27th makes a lot of sense...LOL!
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Wait, for some reason it's working now. I tested it on another forum. After I got a notification on the other forum and then I got the notification from here. It better stay working now. Anyway, I'm back to the 12z GFS.
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ATLwxfan
Member
I mean do we have a reasonable signal that winter weather is coming?
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ATLwxfan
Member
1) SD has an excellent point. The EPS today (and yesterday for that matter) clearly has the MJO headed toward locations that are associated with warmth in the SE, including the absolute warmest, phase 5 outside the circle. Afterward, however, it moves (2/8+) to areas that have the best cold tendencies, which is largely supported by the less skillful GEFS. So, don't fret yet, folks.
EPS MJO:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif
GEFS MJO:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif
2) Chris (Delta) hitting it out of the park this morning IMO with a series of nice posts.
3) I doubt global warming is the major factor behind the SE being close to 10 F warmer than normal for January through 1/25. The globe is at most 2-3 F warmer than it was 100 years ago from what I've seen. Also, 30 year normals are updated every decade. Regardless, how can one prove the connection to any specific weather event? Interestingly, January has warmed very little in the SE US over the last 100+ years.
Storm5
Member
Storm5
Member
it's the southeast we never really have a resonance signal until inside 5 days
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Golferwhotries
Member
I'm confused on the idea about this displacement that's supposively happening right now. All the "good mets" are really talking about it. What's so good about a ssw displacement? 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I honestly don't know why anyone is putting any stock in or giving any consideration/credence to the GEFS MJO forecasts... The model's convective tropical convective schemes and skill scores are beyond atrocious, in fact at one of the talks at AMS, the GFS completely loses any medium-high frequency equatorial wave structures beyond 4-5 days, it's very sad. I really don't pay attention to its forecasts unless there's an MJO event already in progress over the Pacific Ocean.
pcbjr
Member
They can, depending on strength, placement, blocking and other variables too numerous to set out here, cause the arctic/polar air to be "shoved" southward (or towards Russia - it's a function of variables). They are not a panacea, but when other mechanisms line up, they can produce cold air into the CONUS, which can then get into the SE. I'll see if I can find an article during lunch to supplement this.I'm confused on the idea about this displacement that's supposively happening right now. All the "good mets" are really talking about it. What's so good about a ssw displacement?
That's why I always emphasize that the EPS is far more accurate than the GEFS for MJO forecasting. Even it is far from foolproof as even it hasn't exactly been stellar this winter. But the GEFS has been its typical atrocious self. I referenced the GEFS only to say that it fairly closely agrees with the EPS toward the end of the two week forecast. Now that I think about it, maybe that doesn't bode well for the EPS out two weeks.
Is there another model that handles it better in your opinion?
Storm5
Member
pcbjr
Member
Supplement to #262 -
here's some general info on SSWs that pretty easy to "digest"
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-ssws
here's some general info on SSWs that pretty easy to "digest"
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/24hourprof/sudden-stratospheric-warmings-ssws
The GFS will take a similar beating to what we took vs UNC
Displacements favor cold outbreaks into north america more so than a full PV split. In the most simple way if you kick the strat PV off the pole the tropospheric PV may follow which leads to a -AOI'm confused on the idea about this displacement that's supposively happening right now. All the "good mets" are really talking about it. What's so good about a ssw displacement?
I am mysteriously intrigued by superbowl weekend
ATLwxfan
Member
Fair enough. However, the early January system was fairly consistent on the models (at least GFS) well beyond 5 days. I can't recall the last wintery threat that we didn't see some evidence of well in advance.
I'm sure there are exceptions that someone will point out.
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olhausen
Member
Just last year the big 12 inch snow My area got only started showing up about 5-6 days out. I will say it was the most consistent I have ever seen the models be for my neck of the woods. The euro pretty much showed 8-12 inches run after run and the Nashville area pretty much got between 8-12 inches. I do know for the Memphis area it busted pretty bad as they were expecting 6 plus inches and ended up with a dusting. God knows I've been through many of those so it was nice to have a storm showing up on the models actually pan out.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The amount of fantasy storms that the models have shown has really decreased since when I started tracking winter weather about 8 years ago. Even in good winters like 13/14 and 14/15 (even if YOU didn't see winter weather, those were good winters) it seemed like if a storm was going to happen, the idea was going to eventually appear and stick and with a few tweaks, it'd be our winter storm. Sometimes it'd appear in the really long range, then disappear before reappearing, but most of the time, if it stuck around for a couple runs, it'd stick.
Like one of the infamous ones that I remember from a long time ago was one that was looking like a replica of one of the major storms of the past, but after a couple days it disappeared not to be found again. And just in general in those days I remember seeing a loooootttt of late in run winter storms that never occurred. That doesn't mean we don't see them at all now, but we see a lot less of them now. Like my brain may be imagining things but it was often like every other GFS run, there was a fantasy storm. I think that was fixed about three years after I started tracking.
Like one of the infamous ones that I remember from a long time ago was one that was looking like a replica of one of the major storms of the past, but after a couple days it disappeared not to be found again. And just in general in those days I remember seeing a loooootttt of late in run winter storms that never occurred. That doesn't mean we don't see them at all now, but we see a lot less of them now. Like my brain may be imagining things but it was often like every other GFS run, there was a fantasy storm. I think that was fixed about three years after I started tracking.
ATLwxfan
Member
The Para is an upgrade to the current GFS. They are working with a new model suite outside the GFS to replace it.
ATLwxfan
Member
We should have a board-wide party to celebrate that day.
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Storm5
Member
it's US made no party needed . it will still fall short of the euro
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Funny fact. Those super computers they use / used for the Euro model were made in the USA. Not to get too detailed here, but stupid "deals" force us to have crap computing power.
Cray Computers
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The GFS still isn't great, but it's not as bad as it used to be. It was really bad in those old days. Honestly, there's no need for a model to go out to 384 hours. It should extend to just 240 hours and there should be a long range model just for evaluation of the pattern.
I think it will still be called GFS, the model will have upgraded computing power. I haven't read a whole lot about it. I'm hoping NOAA will have a beta of it, that would be cool.
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Here's an article on it. Yeah, GFS name will stay but it's being replaced. The PARA GFS should be an upgrade to the current system in place:
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model
http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model
I guess everyone gave up and no one saw day 10 on the Euro. So sad
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